Economist: China Loses Faith in Dollar

China has lost faith in the stability of the U.S. dollar and its first priority is to broaden the exchange rate for its currency from the dollar to a more flexible basket of currencies, a top Chinese economist said Wednesday at the World Economic Forum. At a standing-room only session focusing on the world’s fastest-growing […]

Oil and Stagflation

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
AEI Online
Publication Date: September 1, 2004

If the price remains at current levels or rises higher, more production and refining capacity will eventually come on stream, but the pipeline is long and there is no sign, as yet, of a major supply response from the oil industry. Stagflation will be with us for a while.

American Enterprise Institute

Biodiesel on the Stock Exchange

A new company called D1 Oils will begin trading on the London Stock Exchange this year. Their super plant is called Jatropha.
D1 Oils’ objective is to become a global sustainable, low cost producer of biodiesel and supplier of crude vegetable oil and to achieve and maintain low production costs and consistent, high volume, quality output. The Group’s strategy is to control and manage its operations on a regional basis by securing plantation rights and establishing refinery operations using its own refinery technology. The Company’s approach is to exploit the growing global demand for biodiesel utilising an alternative, high yielding, vegetable oil source. The Jatropha tree has been selected as the Group’s primary energy crop due to the main benefits of its high productivity, durability and longevity.
Read D1 Oil’s profile and news release on the LSE website.

Developing world’s fertility declining rapidly

The UN Population Division’s latest World Fertility Report has just been released. It shows a steep decline in world fertility, especially in the developing world.
In 20 countries (among which China), births have now fallen beneath the number needed to maintain current population levels.
This demographic trend must be taken into account in any serious discussion about peak oil and global future oil demand.
The trend is likely to continue on its current pace, relieving the world of one of its most frightening pressures: overpopulation.
The BBC has the story.

US consumer ´weakest link´ in world economy

“Self-indulgent” US consumers are the “weakest-link” in a global economy that could come off the rails at any moment, according to Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley In a bearish assessment of global economic prospects for 2005, Roach told an introductory meeting of the World Economic Forum that rampant US consumption had been the […]

The New Color of Oil

Our entrepreneurs are at it again. This time they’re finding fresh ways to help the U.S. kick its oil habit. Iraqi insurgents blow up oil pipelines. Crude prices soar to $50 a barrel. The snows of Kilimanjaro recede, a reminder of the threat of global warming. Childhood asthma, aggravated by tailpipe and power plant emissions, […]

Are Your Oil and Gas Supplies Secure?

asks World Economic Forum

Davos Programme on oil:

“From Nigeria to Venezuela, and Russia to Iraq, political instability has the potential to upset the stable flow of oil and gas to global consumers. 1) What are the most pressing threats to the global energy supply? 2) Can the market adequately manage risks? 3) Which national economies and businesses are most vulnerable?”

Ontario Should Rethink Coal Opposition, Power Agency Head Says

Ontario needs to reconsider its resistance to coal as an energy source with the government pledging to phase out coal-fired power plants by 2007, the head of the new provincial power authority said.

“I don’t see that coal is necessarily ruled out providing it can be used in a more environmentally acceptable format than the present technology allows,” Jan Carr, appointed to lead the Ontario Power Authority two weeks ago, said at a conference in Toronto.

www.bloomberg.com

In Venezuela, clouds are forming over oil

Venezuela may be increasing tension in energy markets with decisions that are confounding international oil companies, but the government there says it is merely seeking more income and new markets for its oil.
.
Peter Hill, chief executive of Harvest Natural Resources of Houston, which gets all its oil from Venezuela, has one view of the policies unfolding there. Harvest’s stock lost a quarter of its value last week after the Venezuelan national oil company unexpectedly told it to suspend exploration efforts.
.
www.iht.com

Central banks dump dollar for euro

Central banks around the world are getting rid of the US dollar in favor of the euro in a bid to stem losses from the declining greenback, an international survey reveals.

The survey says that more than two-thirds of central banks have increased their exposure to the euro in the past two years, mainly at the expense of the dollar. The report also finds that over half the central banks surveyed now find euro-zone money and debt markets as attractive for investors as those of the United States.

www.atimes.com

Oil Eases But Still Near $50

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices held within sight of $50 a barrel on Wednesday on supply worries in the United States, where weekly data is expected to show a draw in winter fuel inventories.

Reuters

Chinese Economy Grows 9.5% in 2004

China has recorded an economic growth rate of 9.5 percent for 2004-continuing the economic nightmare that is being experienced around the world.

zaman

New Drilling For Otero Mesa

The Bush administration has approved a large part of Otero Mesa in New Mexico for drilling, according to the Los Angeles Times. Local environmental, ranching, property rights, hunters, and conservationists had banded together to oppose drilling, in part because of concerns about groundwater (drilling uses a great deal of water, which the plan doesn’t address), the effects on local wildlife, and grazing land. “The potential energy yield from the area is unclear.”

NGOs win greater trust than media and businesses

Pressure groups and charities have overtaken governments, media and big businesses to become the world’s most trusted institutions, according to an international poll to be presented this week to the World Economic Forum in Davos. An annual survey of attitudes in eight countries suggests public trust has been eroded by scandals such as corporate malfeasance […]

Chinese Nuclear Power Boom

China plans on building two nuclear power plants per year from now to 2020 to quadruple output to 16 billion kilowatt-hours (16 terawatts for you SI sticklers) capacity. Seeing as how the government “strictly censors” the news, one wonders whether this will create significant safety problems.

iraq: Sabotage of the oil industry ‘on a daily basis’

“Over the past three months, attacks have increased to about one or two attacks every day”, Ghadban told a press conference.
He warned that the attacks were not random but part of a deliberate strategy to create fuel shortages in the capital. Ghadban said attacks numbered more than 200 in 2004 and had averaged about 24 per month.

Monday Morning

State of Hopelessness, by James Kunstler

Kunstler’s prose is so remorselessly vivid and caustic that–I hate to say this–I would feel disappointed if his screeds turn out to be untrue. Like a failed biblical prophecy. kunstler.comJanuary 23, 2005 I was down on the Gulf Coast of Florida last Thursday, flapping my gums about the issues of the day in civic design […]

2005: The Year of Global Oil Production Peak?

A doomsday for neo-classic economics approaches as the absurdity of supply side solutions (or lack thereof) to this approaching energy crisis “tsunami” become apparent. Aside from Malthusian demand destruction there simply are no supply side solutions. Oil has increased in price by about 350% since 1999 when it was around US$10bbl. The emerging crisis is completely unlike previous politically induced episodes of the 70s caused by embargoes and the Iranian crisis. This time mild mannered economists will come face to face with the stiletto point of geological depletion.

Powerless NZ

Energy prices under the spotlight

A committee of MPs will on Tuesday quiz energy bosses about rising prices and how increases are affecting customers.
The average domestic gas bill has risen by 20% in the past year, and the cost of electricity by 14% on average….

BBC

‘Peak’ Movement Argues Supplies Are Running Out

When oil broke the $50-a-barrel barrier in late 2004, uneasiness rippled through markets and capitals around the world. Some experts in the oil industry said the price spike was merely a taste of what’s to come. Grouped together as the so-called peak oil movement, these analysts predict world oil supplies are about to peak and then start a slow downward slide.

Radio Free Europe

Solar Living Institute offering ‘The End Of Suburbia’ DVD

The non-profit Solar Living Institute and it’s parent, Real Goods Trading Company, are offering The End Of Suburbia on DVD. Founded in 1978, Real Goods (now called Gaiam Real Goods after a recent merger) is today the world’s premier supplier of renewable energy, environmental and sustainable living products and information. The Solar Living Institute is […]

Consumers irate over price of energy

“They’ve got us over a barrel and we can’t do anything about it. No one’s obviously regulating the market. How are people going to afford this?” asked Dave Garacci of Milwaukee, who couldn’t believe the increase he saw on his bill this winter, even though he had recently installed an energy-efficient furnace.

“How are these people going to afford this? They’re paying through the nose for gasoline, paying through the nose for electricity, they’re paying through the nose for natural gas – and now food prices are going up.”

JSOnline

Doom For The Dollar–And Everything Else

The stock market is up and economic growth has been steady, if unspectacular. But, an increasing number of economists are seeing serious storms build on the horizon. They point to ever-growing federal budget deficits, a record current-account deficit, increased consumer debt, a real estate market that looks like a bubble ready to burst, a surge […]

Nigerian oil exports in dire straights

Lagos – Nigerian unions met on Monday to decide whether or not to order a strike which could disrupt exports of hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude per day from Africa’s biggest producer, labour leaders said….

IOL

US Coal Imports Increase

In the past few years, the production of Appalachian coal has dropped off and coal imports have doubled.
Daily Press

Current Events

Of particular interest is the 2004 production from Saudi Arabia: 8.75 million barrels per day. Early in 2003, Saudi Aramco and the government of Saudi Arabia announced that their production was maxed out at 9.2 million barrels per day. Yet there have been persistent stories that the Saudis could increase production to 11 million barrels per day. Both statements may be true! They could increase production, but they would soon regret having done so. An abrupt increase in their production rate would pull water up through the dolomitized streaks in the Ghawar field, like a teenager sucking on a soda straw. Saudi Arabia was supposed to be the world’s last source of unused production capacity. At this point, there seems to be no surplus oil production capacity anywhere in the world.

K. Deffeyes

Central banks ’shunning dollar’

Many of the world’s central banks are starting to look to the euro to fill their currency reserves instead of the dollar, a survey suggests.

The poll carried out by Central Banking Publications found 39 nations of the 65 surveyed raising their euro holdings, with 29 cutting back on the US dollar.

www.bbc.co.uk

Global Warming Approaching Point of No Return

By Geoffrey Lean, Environment Editor 23 January 2005 Global warning has already hit the danger point that international attempts to curb it are designed to avoid, according to the world’s top climate watchdog. Dr Rajendra Pachauri, the chairman of the official Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), told an international conference attended by 114 governments […]

Giant in decline

In his 1849 novel Les Guepes, Alphonse Karr penned the classic line: “The more things change, the more they stay the same.” In the case of the United States in 2005, however, the opposite might be true: The more things stay the same, the more they are likely to change … for the worse. In that regard, compiling a list of potential threats to the US this year has a strangely deja-vu-all-over-again feeling.

www.atimes.com

Shell reserves shortfall ‘even worse than feared’

Internal audit expected to downgrade another 500m barrels Oliver Morgan, industrial editor Sunday January 23, 2005 The Observer TheCity is braced for further oil reserve downgrades from Royal Dutch/Shell – including one of almost 150 million barrels arising from operations in Canada alone – when it announces its results at the beginning of next month. […]

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