[dorlomin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '
')Oilfinder wasn't any more crazy than pops. Or you. He just irritated folks because he could demonstrate that the claims

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '
')Oilfinder wasn't any more crazy than pops. Or you. He just irritated folks because he could demonstrate that the claims

[Rune]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rune', '[')url=http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QovBLFZhQME&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DQovBLFZhQME]A Post-Oil Man[/url]



Don't forget THIS guy; he did a lot of damage early-on.

[Rod_Cloutier]

Once oil starts to decline; even a 1% shortfall will cause prices to rise, cripple the economy, and/or lead to shortages. The oil will never run out in our lifetimes.

The peak oil crowd was right!

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '
')Oilfinder wasn't any more crazy than pops. Or you. He just irritated folks because he could demonstrate that the claims

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Repent', 'O')nce oil starts to decline; even a 1% shortfall will cause prices to rise, cripple the economy, and/or lead to shortages. The oil will never run out in our lifetimes.

The peak oil crowd was right!

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rune', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '
')"This ain't like that Y2K stuff...." CLASSIC!

[Ibon]

I would choose none of the above. The relevant question is why so many credible folks miscalculated.

Here is my answer. Many folks saw the ideological war of conservation being lost after Reagan. It was full speed ahead consumption. whether you were an environmentalist looking for a catalyst that would change this or a Mormon republican seeing a precious resource being squandered the Peak Oil story made logical sense as it fit into a narrative that puts resource limits as the catalyst to drive change. After watching 40 years of nothing else working to question the status quo.

That has been certainly true in my case. From an ecological perspective when the resource base that enables overshoot goes into decline that is when an intractable status quo has to move.

Many felt very compelled by this argument. Many miscalculated the geology and the rise of alternative non conventional fossil fuels because they were being held by this narrative.

It is a similar narrative that can be found in the climate change community. In fact, both peak oil and climate change were often debated together and depending on which one of the two at any given moment was perceived as better fitting the above narrative, (which of the two perceived as more immanent) representing a game changer.

Deferred rather than disprove Peak Oil is what all these new non conventional fossil fuels have done.

The underlying narrative is still compelling.

[Loki]

More strawmen from the trolls. Yay.

Recent history according to PO.com trolls:

(1) Great Recession? Never happened.
(2) Apparently permanent spike in oil price? Never happened.
(3) Coincidence that oil price spiked at the same time as the worst economic crash since the 1930s? Not a problem. See #1 and 2.
(4) Drag of high oil prices on the flaccid “recovery”? Not a problem. See #1 and 2.

I love counterfactual history. What might have been had what was not happened?

[Rune]

Well we sure ain't drinking our piss and scraping the flesh off rabbit hide with broken CDs.

[SeaGypsy]

Kudos John

[dorlomin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', '
')Look we all know you are a troll, you are here to amuse yourself at our expense. If this was a cornucopian web site, you would be all for peak oil. If this was democrat you would be a pure, full on republican.

[Rod_Cloutier]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')hanny was in the midst of some existential crisis or another over immediate family and a raging desire to be rid of them. Any parent probably understands that urge, no Doom required to want the kids and hubby to just LEAVE at some point during the "raise the kids" time of life

[ralfy]

None of them, as demand was offset by economic recession, with the elite using bailout money to play in the stock markets.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Repent', '
')
(Malthusia.com is still up and running- it is a members only forum; you have to be logged in as a member to view content)

[vision-master]

With gas prices dropping below $3 gal, there is NO Credibility of Peak Oil Doomers!

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rune', 'W')ell we sure ain't drinking our piss and scraping the flesh off rabbit hide with broken CDs.

[dsula]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rune', 'W')ell we sure ain't drinking our piss and scraping the flesh off rabbit hide with broken CDs.

[John_A]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'W')ith gas prices dropping below $3 gal, there is NO Credibility of Peak Oil Doomers!

[Pops]

LOL, this is like picking the player of the game at halftime, hard to know who was the Doomer and who the Corny before decline sets in.

Maybe Bardi and Collapsnik are the Cornies? Or maybe Yergin is the Doomer?

--
I think the most mistaken predictions on either side are about "Ability to Pay".

Overnight Armageddonists say the price could go to some astronomical level overnight and stay there, causing collapse. Unicorn Worshipers actually make the same mistake, believing supply will always rise even as the increasing difficulty of production continuously raises prices, causing utopia. There are variations, doomers think substitution, conservation are bad while Cornies see them only as good, etc.

But what both ignore is that [ability to pay] is not unlimited and in fact is dependant on the built infrastructure of easy oil. The price/utility ratio isn't unlimited so it can neither collapse the economy overnight nor continue fossil fuel utopia forever.

--
In fact, my *prediction that the price would not continue to rise but increasingly fluctuate while averaging less has been a pretty good guess so far if I do say so myself... *(it actually started out as just a devil's advocate argument to drum up some posts but hey, LOL)