[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zeke', 'T')o me, the larger reason is that I think we realize that the prevailing business model of "never-ending growth" is a physical impossibility.

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zeke', 'T')o me, the larger reason is that I think we realize that the prevailing business model of "never-ending growth" is a physical impossibility.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'I')ts all fine and well to talk about limits, but no one knows what they are.

[Dezakin]

We aren't short on energy supply, food avaliability for people continues to grow, as does global wealth. We're using 1/10000 of the energy dissapation capacity of the earth, and then there's an entire solar system of resources with a start that conveniently pumps out 10^26 watts for another 4 billion years or so.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'W')e aren't short on energy supply, food avaliability for people continues to grow, as does global wealth. We're using 1/10000 of the energy dissapation capacity of the earth, and then there's an entire solar system of resources with a start that conveniently pumps out 10^26 watts for another 4 billion years or so.

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'W')e aren't short on energy supply, food avaliability for people continues to grow, as does global wealth. We're using 1/10000 of the energy dissapation capacity of the earth, and then there's an entire solar system of resources with a start that conveniently pumps out 10^26 watts for another 4 billion years or so.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'W')e aren't short on energy supply, food avaliability for people continues to grow, as does global wealth. We're using 1/10000 of the energy dissapation capacity of the earth, and then there's an entire solar system of resources with a start that conveniently pumps out 10^26 watts for another 4 billion years or so.

[NeoLotus]

Neo-agrarian.

[zeke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I') agree with your thoughts on growth but I'm not so sure that all those who understand peak oil really understand the implication of physical limits. Many here, and on other peak oil groups, appear to be looking for a solution that allows life to go on as "normal", even if it is at a lower level of energy. Many focus on the energy problem in isolation. Just look at the level of support there is for nuclear power build up, in these groups, as an example.

[Alcassin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'W')e aren't short on energy supply, food avaliability for people continues to grow, as does global wealth. We're using 1/10000 of the energy dissapation capacity of the earth, and then there's an entire solar system of resources with a start that conveniently pumps out 10^26 watts for another 4 billion years or so.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', 'H')ey! He's user, and this board is not a church. As long as it is open for anyone, cornucopians are welcome.

[efarmer]

Squandernaut

Contractionary

Limitite

Antiplethorian

Skimpist

Oh, I guess Pops is right. Maybe we should settle for being called awake, and just get on with it.

[buzzard]

I read this whole thread and right at the end efarmer finally hits it. What I always call myself is Awake. It is an awareness that transcends Peak Oil or peak Uranium or peak anything else. We face the "law of the minimum." Unless we are awake to the simple reality that humans can no longer live as they have been, in short, as an Industrial Civilization we are doomed to suffer the consequences.

I consider myself as one of the Awakened. More humans join that group daily. But will it be enough to ensure our survival. I really don't know. I'm not that awake.

[LastViking]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '
')But! What I can tell you is what non-believers call us.

assholes
spammers
pricks
nut cases
wackos
morons
lefties
full of BS
agenda posters

the list goes on & on..............

I've just been banned ... snip

Well, these sheeple just couldn't stand the very idea of Peak Oil and banned me after about a year of my warnings. Scary stuff.

[Ferretlover]

I've heard interviewers on CNBC use the term, Peaker, twice now.

Assimilators?

Lucky-'cuz we figured it out and are preparing ahead of the masses?

[dbruning]

Peakoiler is the phrase I use.

'Peak' Oil + 'Can' do Attitute = Peakan!

And the guys arguing with us will like it cause they can say we're "nuts".

Oh the joy.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LastViking', 'R')emember folks, the first Doomer proclamation was in 1989. Colin Campbell declared that oil had already peaked in the year of his first forecast.

Since then, others have stated that Peak Year was 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, y2k, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 & 2007.

NO DOUBT, someone will shortly declare that 2008 is the Peak.

Do you see a pattern here?

The abuse won't stop 'til the movement starts to adopt the recognized forecasts of Peak Year instead of always saying "it was last year!"

[LastViking]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LastViking', 'T')he abuse won't stop 'til the movement starts to adopt the recognized forecasts of Peak Year instead of always saying "it was last year!"

[TonyPrep]

So you're saying that "the peak oil movement" should settle on 2017? That would, presumably, include the wildly optimistic forecasts based on interim forecasts that have already proved to be false?

I very much doubt that governments are dismissing peak oil (that is, no peak for many decades) or, if they are, are dismissing it because no one knows exactly when it will occur. That would be extremely silly, wouldn't it?

Your trend lines link takes a bunch of forecasts from all manner of people and organisations, some with better data than others, some with public calculations and some without. It also posits new records and an end to the plateau (which has never been a flat line anyway), which is meaningless unless production can match demand (which it hasn't, depleting stocks).

The actual date is, in some ways, irrelevant. No one knows when the date will be but it is abundantly clear that the longer we argue about the date, the less likely action will be taken. Picking a date 9 years away may be a simple move but it could cause politicians with 3, 4 or 5 year terms to leave it to someone else.

The recent undulating plateau and production deficits should have focused minds, one would have thought, but OPEC and oil company noises about more capacity has been the easier message to swallow, so it's hardly surprising that it is the latter message that has held sway, for now.

[nagen]

one word - realists