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What comes after oil?

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

What comes after oil?

Unread postby DavidProvost » Mon 06 Jun 2005, 08:00:13

What resources can take the place of oil? Once all the oil is gone whats the world gona run on?
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Re: What comes after oil?

Unread postby DriveElectric » Mon 06 Jun 2005, 08:03:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DavidProvost', 'W')hat resources can take the place of oil? Once all the oil is gone whats the world gona run on?


I think you are beginning to see the problem.
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Unread postby JohnDenver » Mon 06 Jun 2005, 08:26:09

Over the course of the next 100 years, I see the sequence like this:

1) Other fossil fuels: natural gas, coal, gas-to-liquids, coal liquefaction, non-conventional oil

2) Nuclear

3) Space solar (space mirrors, lunar space power, power satellites etc.)
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Unread postby Starvid » Mon 06 Jun 2005, 09:11:48

Take what part of oils place? Oils importance as a transportation fuel or oils part of the primary energy mix? It is a hell of a lot easier to replace the loss of primary energy than the loss of the transportation fuel. Peak Oil is a liquid fuels crisis.

Still, replacing the primary energy part of oil will be a huge endaveour on its own.
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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Unread postby 0mar » Mon 06 Jun 2005, 11:15:45

That's what we're gonna find out in 10-20 years buddy.
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Unread postby MD » Mon 06 Jun 2005, 11:26:08

Solar energy to grow plants. Plants to feed animals. Animals(and plants) to feed and work for humans. Humans to use muscles.

Windmills, passive solar, hydropower, bio ethanol and oil, fossil oil(in limited quantities).

Sustainable somewhere between 500 million and 2 billion with annual per capita energy use about where Peru is today.
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Unread postby Doly » Mon 06 Jun 2005, 11:43:46

This forum is dedicated exactly to try to answer that question.
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Unread postby linlithgowoil » Mon 06 Jun 2005, 11:52:07

if peak oil occurs before 2008, as looks very likely, then nothing will take its place. we'l just have less net energy each year.

however, there will be a massive reintroduction of coal everywhere. clean coal technologies, turning it into liquid fuels etc. renewables will also get a bit boost with biofuels being popular. natural gas, where it is in abundance, will also be used to power cars rather than petrol.

as for electricity generation, we'll just have to ramp up nuclear at first, whilst getting alternatives online too. fusion is the holy grail. we get fusion, we've solved all energy problems forever. we won't solve other problems however, such as environmental problems, with fusion, but if we did have fusion, the future will be pretty rosy.

however, fusion is always 50 years away, and it still is. no one has a clue how to do it yet.

peak oil isnt my most pressing concern though - its peak economy. i think my country (scotland and the UK) has already hit and passed its alltime wealth peak. I fear we are now well into the downturn - its just that most dont want to admit it and are trying to prop themselves up as long as possible.
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Unread postby aahala » Mon 06 Jun 2005, 12:19:29

What resources can take the place of oil?

Only human constraint can save the human race.

All energy is limited, some are depletable and some are renewable
but all are limited.

If the human race is to survive long term, humans must
reduce energy use -- probably about 70-90% of current usage and
before NG is exhausted, coal destroys the air or nuclear waste becomes
too great in volume.

Renewables like wind and solar can rise by great percentages, but they
can not come close to replacing the energy now being consumed by
oil,NG, coal and nuclear.
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Unread postby gt1370a » Mon 06 Jun 2005, 12:19:56

If anyone knew the answer to that, they'd be the richest person in the world in 10 years...
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Unread postby venky » Mon 06 Jun 2005, 14:14:39

I used to think space solar power was a joke of some kind of Sci Fi concept.
But NASA seems to be working on it, albeit it is still expected to be decades away.


http://spacesolarpower.nasa.gov/
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Unread postby MicroHydro » Mon 06 Jun 2005, 16:16:43

for the poor: walking
for the middle class: bicycles
for the well to do who can afford the hay: horse drawn carriages
for the very rich: biodiesel and ethanol powered machines
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Unread postby MicroHydro » Mon 06 Jun 2005, 16:21:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('venky', 'I') used to think space solar power was a joke of some kind of Sci Fi concept.
But NASA seems to be working on it, albeit it is still expected to be decades away.


http://spacesolarpower.nasa.gov/


This topic has been done to death on the space boards for years. The only way it could become economical is if an ultracheap space transportation (not rocketry) system could be developed. The only candidate is the space elevator, and it is speculative to say the least:
http://www.elevator2010.org/site/primer.html
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Unread postby pilferage » Mon 06 Jun 2005, 16:21:47

We're going nuclear! Nothing else will work.
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Unread postby BiGG » Mon 06 Jun 2005, 16:36:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', 'f')or the poor: walking
for the middle class: bicycles
for the well to do who can afford the hay: horse drawn carriages
for the very rich: biodiesel and ethanol powered machines


for the poor: buses, trains, & trams
for the middle class: same middle class cars they are driving now except more efficient or electric
for the very rich: same high-powered cars & jets etc they own now.
"The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil" ............ Former Saudi Arabian oil minister Sheikh Zaki Yamani,
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Unread postby ArimoDave » Mon 06 Jun 2005, 16:44:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BiGG', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', 'f')or the poor: walking
for the middle class: bicycles
for the well to do who can afford the hay: horse drawn carriages
for the very rich: biodiesel and ethanol powered machines


for the poor: buses, trains, & trams
for the middle class: same middle class cars they are driving now except more efficient or electric
for the very rich: same high-powered cars & jets etc they own now.


Or the other extreme:

for the poor: graves
for the middle class: Shovels, to dig the graves, and canes because they have ricketts or other degenerative diseases.
for the well to do: walking maybe a few bicycles.
for the very rich: Airplanes, Limos, Helicopters, etc.

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Unread postby seldom_seen » Mon 06 Jun 2005, 16:48:41

I fear for the forests, if thousands if not millions of people revert to wood burning to heat their homes.
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Re: What comes after oil?

Unread postby cube » Mon 06 Jun 2005, 17:01:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DavidProvost', 'W')hat resources can take the place of oil? Once all the oil is gone whats the world gona run on?


here's my prediction for the second half of the 21st century.

in order of importance
electricity generation = nuclear power , coal (very close second), hydro , (whatever fossil fuels is left over) , wind , solar

transportation
I know I'm going to raise a couple eyebrows by saying this but....fossil fuels.
People will still drive gasoline powered cars but they will be small, super lightweight hybrids with maybe a 3 gallon gas tank. SUV's become the exclusive domain of the rich or for people who truely need them like maybe park rangers?

or maybe hafnium powered cars and airplanes? :-D
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Unread postby venky » Mon 06 Jun 2005, 17:21:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('venky', 'I') used to think space solar power was a joke of some kind of Sci Fi concept.
But NASA seems to be working on it, albeit it is still expected to be decades away.


http://spacesolarpower.nasa.gov/


This topic has been done to death on the space boards for years. The only way it could become economical is if an ultracheap space transportation (not rocketry) system could be developed. The only candidate is the space elevator, and it is speculative to say the least:
http://www.elevator2010.org/site/primer.html


Actually they are talking about wireless power transmission.
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Capitalism

Unread postby Optimist » Mon 06 Jun 2005, 19:53:44

What comes after oil?
The markets will decide. As crude oil production decreases (gradually) it becomes more expensive. This makes alternatives more attractive. Ultimately, we are going to need a renewable fuel, but who knows how long this will take? We may go from crude and natural gas to coal to nuclear to the next step, as we deplete each source.

Eventually we are forced to turn to the only remaining source: waste. This is already happening. TDP, cellulosic ethanol, etc. As oil becomes more expensive, these technologies will attract more attention and investment dollars. Somewhere somebody is going to get very rich developing the fuel of the future.

But wait! you say. We need oil to produce waste!
No we don't. Based on the current market conditions, we use crude for everything under the sun. Future market conditions will change that. As long as we have the sun (and photosynthesis), we have everything we need: food, clothing, shelter, fuel, etc. and even waste.
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