by JayHMorrison » Sat 05 Feb 2005, 09:46:32
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OldSprocket', '
')Are we looking at the same diagram?
The figures in the diagram at the start of this thread say electrical energy provides less than twenty percent of the energy used. Of the electricity generated, sixty-six percent comes from fossil fuels, or thirty-four percent from non-fossil. Multiply thirty-four percent by twenty percent and I end up with less than seven percent.
Less than seven percent.
Please forgive me if I was looking at the wrong diagram.
I think we are coming at this from different angles. You are looking at 2002 numbers. I am projecting forward based on example of France (nuclear 70%), Denmark (Wind 20%) and Germany (Wind 8%). Those examples tell us that it is feasible to have our electric grid be almost 100% non-fossil fuel based.
We can conclude that eventually the entire electric grid can be run by non-fossil fuels. Nuclear, Wind, Solar, Hydro, Biomass. So I start off with 60% of our gross total power being mostly non-fossil fuel based. The electric grid component of our power needs can be achieved by nuclear and wind with current technology.
The only reason we still have coal and natural gas as part of our electric grid is because the plants have already been built. The large piece of the capital cost has already been spent and thus is makes no sense to stop using them until the fuel expense makes it no longer worthwhile. Natural Gas at $6+ is making that the case in the USA. Natural Gas for the electric grid is no longer competitive. Utilities have been dumping their natural gas power plants throughout 2004.
The only power plants seriously built in the last several years were natural gas because they were relatively cheap and nobody fought them. If someone is trying to build a coal power plant, the environmental hurdles are huge. Almost as tough as nuclear.
At the same time, about 40% of our energy needs are transportation related, which is currently almost entirely oil based. The challenge is in this sector. About 67% of our oil consumption is converted to transportation use (your posted chart). The rest goes to other uses.
The challenge is to shift as much as possible of our daily transportation to the electric grid where nuclear, wind, solar and hydro can carry the load in a non-fossil fuel manner which is mostly ultra low CO2 emmission.
Plug-in hybrids, TGV style trains between major cities, Lightrail for urban transportation, bikes, walking, etc.
It is not the same lifestyle we are used to now. It is a much less convienent lifestyle. But it is a rational and feasible lifestyle.