[Tanada]

Very interesting report at link with lots of graphs to back up each portion. Highly recommended for reading and discussion.

Report

[C8]

Basically it says that the transition to renewable energy dominance will be swift.

I gotta say I disagree with everything they wrote and it reads like happy talk.

[theluckycountry]

Yes it's the ramblings of men who have never stepped outside of Academia long enough to see how the world works.

The endgame is here. In one country and region after another, demand for fossil fuels is facing inevitable decline. They got that right.

The concept of "New surging technology" is certainly true, but only with an abundant energy source to drive it. Hundreds of thousands of slaves to build pyramids, Mountains of coal to fuel the early industrial revolution. Oceans of oil to cover the world in concrete highways and fill them with cars.

The authors make the same mistake all other such reports make. They ignore or dismiss EROEI. Yes you could conceivably transition the worlds electricity grid to re-buildable solar and wind, using the last of the fossil fuel reserves on the planet. But what do you do in 20 years time when all the windmills and solar panels become unserviceable? The whole concept is a fairytail where you have to suspend logical thinking and believe that "They will find a way".

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'V')ery interesting report at link with lots of graphs to back up each portion. Highly recommended for reading and discussion.

Report

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', 'B')asically it says that the transition to renewable energy dominance will be swift.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'V')ery interesting report at link with lots of graphs to back up each portion. Highly recommended for reading and discussion.

Report

[C8]

I would add that I wish this transition could happen as explained in peaking. I have no inherent love for any system of energy production over another and it is clear that fossil fuels will be depleted mainly by 2100 if not 2050.

But a successful transition will require using 80% less energy, not a different type of energy. Renewable energy will never come close to matching what FF's could produce on a sustainable basis (as renewable systems wear out and need constant replacement).

This reality will not need to be accepted- it will be forced on people over time.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', '
')But a successful transition will require using 80% less energy, not a different type of energy. Renewable energy will never come close to matching what FF's could produce on a sustainable basis (as renewable systems wear out and need constant replacement).

[jedrider]

Peak Oil was in 2019 I think. Is this wrong?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jedrider', 'P')eak Oil was in 2019 I think. Is this wrong?

[Doly]

This is the sort of report that irritates me: written from a market-based approach. The problem with any market-based approach is that it begins by taking for granted that markets will exist and function reasonably well. These guys talk about the "expert's curse" and then can't see outside their own box.

The problem with supposing that demand for alternative energies will grow rapidly once you reach the peak in fossil fuels assumes that there will be no significant energy shortage issues during the peak (how come?), and that those energy shortage issues aren't going to affect those markets that supposedly can change so fast and smoothly.

My own model isn't market-based, and it pointed at difficulties in the energy transition, precisely because it's just hard to change a whole bunch of industrial infrastructure when energy itself is an issue.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'T')his is the sort of report that irritates me: written from a market-based approach.

[Tanada]

I am happy to see the report sparking such open debate in its merits or faults as the individual member of our PO fraternity see it playing out.

For myself as one of the original members of the moderate effect of PO wing on this website from way back in April 2005 here is my take.

I do not currently believe that the intermittent renewables like Wind and Solar can expand themselves based strictly on the energy they provide absent fossil fuel support for everything from mining the iron ore needed to construction and wiring them into the grid with ample batter resources to cover the periods when they are not producing.

That being said I also never believed that when PO happens the economy will shatter like a hot glass pitcher filled with ice cold beer. Especially not while we have abundant supplies of both Natural Gas and Coal available to keep the economy operating at a high level.

All the chatter about climate change that goes on hasn't changed the basic fact that humans are right now today still expanding our use of all three types of fossil fuels, gasses, liquids and yes solids.

Presumably PO will bring a stop to easily expanding use of fossil liquid fuels, but we have known for a century now how to convert coal into diesel fuel and how to convert natural gas into gasoline/kerosene those three liquids being the primary forms of liquid fuels our civilization, so called, consumes.

On top of that if the Ukraine conflict and the shortage of Russian natural gas exports has proven anything it is this, voters demand their government do not let them die of heat waves or freeze in winter conditions. Germany the so called environmental green energy leader of the EU has reactivated at least two and possibly three coal burning power stations as of July 18th. What is even more telling is despite the screams of the anti-nuclear green party which is part of the ruling coalition they are seriously considering keeping the three remaining nuclear power stations active for another two years and reactivating two of the three they closed last year to make up for the shortfall of natural gas and renewable unreliability.

Voters get rather testy when politicians spend two decades promising the green energy revolution and after hundreds of billions of euros being invested they find they are paying 600% of the 2002 electricity price and have made themselves dependent on cheap Russian natural gas. Because they were not prepared to import LNG form the world market and even worse the world market was not able to supply all they wanted even at a substantial price premium. Also the intermittent renewables have failed to live up to the hype, badly.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')That being said I also never believed that when PO happens the economy will shatter like a hot glass pitcher filled with ice cold beer.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')
I do not currently believe that the intermittent renewables like Wind and Solar can expand themselves based strictly on the energy they provide absent fossil fuel support...

That being said I also never believed that when PO happens the economy will shatter like a hot glass pitcher filled with ice cold beer. Especially not while we have abundant supplies of both Natural Gas and Coal available to keep the economy operating at a high level...

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')
I do not currently believe that the intermittent renewables like Wind and Solar can expand themselves based strictly on the energy they provide absent fossil fuel support...

That being said I also never believed that when PO happens the economy will shatter like a hot glass pitcher filled with ice cold beer. Especially not while we have abundant supplies of both Natural Gas and Coal available to keep the economy operating at a high level...

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', '
')
But a successful transition will require using 80% less energy, not a different type of energy. Renewable energy will never come close to matching what FF's could produce on a sustainable basis (as renewable systems wear out and need constant replacement).

This reality will not need to be accepted- it will be forced on people over time.

[jawagord]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', 'B')asically it says that the transition to renewable energy dominance will be swift.

I gotta say I disagree with everything they wrote and it reads like happy talk.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'V')ery interesting report at link with lots of graphs to back up each portion. Highly recommended for reading and discussion.

Report

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jawagord', '
')
The mistake these reports all make is to assume the rest of the world is the same Economically and Politically as Europe/USA. The energy transitions fantasies that rich countries can indulge in by borrowing huge sums of money to subsidize unreliable wind and solar are not available to poor countries.