[Newfie]

Came across this document today by a Limits To Growth author.

Here he is in 2012 making a 40 year projection, out to 2052.

An interesting read, not sure I agree but that’s why I’m throwing this out there. For discussion

http://www.2052.info/wp-content/uploads ... d-CPSL.pdf

[asg70]

This phrase keeps coming up in his presentation:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')inability of the US government to make forceful
decisions on any issue involving the redistribution
of income and wealth.

[ralfy]

It looks like a best-case scenario given ideal conditions, e.g., countries following Cuba, with a per capita ecological footprint of around 2 and declining birth rates, the effects of climate change, arms production and deployment, and globalization quickly mitigated. This can also be seen in the four points given at the end of the paper. The difference is that the author argues that the points are needed to avoid experiencing such a "sad story." Mine is that they are needed to make it possible and avoid worse.

[JuanP]

Interesting, though I don't agree with most of it. It seems too optimistic, but I hope he's correct because that would mean that my wife and I could live the rest of our lives under not too disagreeable circumstances.

Asg70, the Chinese discontinued their population program because it wasn't necessary any more. Fertility levels in China did not increase after the program ended, as a matter of fact, they continued to decrease in the years that followed. The end of the population program didn't affect Chinese fertility or natality at all. The population of China is expected to peak around 2030 according to all the forecasts I've read, including CIA, UN, IMF, Chinese government, and others. I have been following Chinese demographic trends for over 4 decades since I was a young child, and I've never seen any forecasts that contradict the trends leading to that peak around 2030.

Also, I assume that Asg70 is referring to the IPCC reports when he says that scientists have been wrong about their Climate Change forecasts. IPCC reports are POLITICAL documents, not scientific ones. They will always be wrong for POLITICAL reasons, but the scientists know perfectly well what is happening. It's just that they do need to make a living. Do you think they would get any grants to finance their research if they couldn't be muzzled?

I do 100% agree with Asg70's conclusion, though, that this forecast would be less optimistic if the author was publishing it today.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'C')ame across this document today by a Limits To Growth author.

Here he is in 2012 making a 40 year projection, out to 2052.

An interesting read, not sure I agree but that’s why I’m throwing this out there. For discussion

http://www.2052.info/wp-content/uploads ... d-CPSL.pdf

[Newfie]

A couple of things strike me as off.

Written in 2012 he projected world population to level off after reaching 8.1 billion in 2040. This growth rate is important because he uses in in following arguments. If it’s wrong then the other projections are effected.

So here we are just 8 years latter and checking ourworldindata they are estimating today’s population at 7.8 billion. And 9 billion by 2037. IIRC the UN projections have increased in recent years. Half of that increase coming from Africa.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Based on this, the UN Population Division expects world population, currently (2020) at 7.8 billion, to level out at or soon after the end of the 21st Century at 10.9 billion (the median line),[4][5] assuming a continuing decrease in the global average fertility rate from 2.5 births per woman during the 2015–2020 period to 1.9 in 2095–2100, accordingto the medium-variant projection.[6]

[asg70]

[snip]

[Ibon]

It is 44 years since I was in college majoring in Environmental Science. That is 45 years contemplating the projection of human ecological overshoot into the future. 45 years ago that window of time available to reverse course seemed plausible. 45 years later it is astonishing how many of the predictions back then were accurate, not in the exact time line or in the exact quantifiable number, but more in the broad stroke of predictions of environmental degradation regarding climate change, over population and biodiversity loss. Acid rain and the ozone hole were big topics back then that were controlled but otherwise the broad outline of where we were heading was already quite well understood 45 years ago. That should give pause..... that we actually understood the consequences of our inaction 45 years ago!

When you are cognizant for 45 years and see no significant course change then you fall back on the belief that it is only the consequences of our inaction that will provide any impetus towards adaptation to a more steady state regarding population and consumption.

One of the very few actions an individual or a small foundation of individuals can actually take is to try to preserve native habitat by buying wild lands or rehabilitate lands that are strategically improtant as corridors of wildlife. These small islands of remaining natural habitat are the refuges out of which natural ecosystems will start to recolonize former human landscapes once our species footprint starts to recede.

A great example in North AMerica is that during my lifetime eastern deciduous forests have returned to close to primary forest status. Yes, the American Chestnut is gone, the passenger pigeon, carolina parakeet, Bachman's Warbler and Ivory-billed Woodpecker, all extinct along with hundreds of other species. But remarkably, 98% of the biodiversity of these forests are still intact. And one day not more than a century or two into the future old growth forests in the Eastern US will once again be home to mountain lion, timber wolf and grizzly bears. Maybe jaguars instead of timber wolves if climate change extends the tropical climate to more northern latitudes, but whatever climate change brings the forests will adapt.

THese are the musings which provide me the most comfort as I gaze upon the future while looking out the window or our lodge and former pastures rapidly reforesting, as our game cameras still document the keystone species that are holding on, still present, and will one day spread once again down the valley a ways when the plague of invasive Kudzu Apes exit the scene or recede to a fraction of their former parasitic dominance.

In the great sweep of time the current imbalances are the blink of an eye...... we may sooner than we think join once again with the community of life on the planet coexisting in some form of balanced steady state instead of raping and plundering the remaining natural ecosystems. There may be only a billion of us, but that is more than enough.

It cannot happen soon enough........

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'h')ow many of the predictions back then were accurate,

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'h')ow many of the predictions back then were accurate,

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', 'T')his phrase keeps coming up in his presentation:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')inability of the US government to make forceful
decisions on any issue involving the redistribution
of income and wealth.

[Newfie]

Ibon,

It’s ironic that the author predicts there will be no wild land outside state protected preserves.

But yes, my 168 acre parcel is my contribution.

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'S')o these successes avoided some of the dire predictions back then of dying forest and dangerous levels of UV light.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'S')o these successes avoided some of the dire predictions back then of dying forest and dangerous levels of UV light.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')Kudzu Apes exit the scene or recede to a fraction of their former parasitic dominance.
...
It cannot happen soon enough........

[Newfie]

Is it misanthropic time hope for a world where humanity survives, if at reduced numbers, rather than becomes extinct?

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '
')And you still don't classify yourself as a misanthrope.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')I am very much a misanthrope toward the current cultural orientation