Question ?

by **Scorpio** » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 12:31:51

Hello People,

Has anyone seen or produced a model which indictates a by country future export capability modelled against internal consumption by that country.

I am just interested to know the point at which producers will stop supplying world markets due to depletion.

This could be a turning point in geopolitical tensions, thats why i am interested in this model.

Thanks

Scorpio

by **pup55** » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 14:17:40

Let's do a few that we know are close to the peak, and that we know and love:

Indonesia:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'year prod cons Exports
1965 486 123 363
1966 474 119 355
1967 510 115 395
1968 599 122 477
1969 642 132 510
1970 854 139 715
1971 892 144 748
1972 1081 163 918
1973 1338 190 1148
1974 1375 205 1170
1975 1306 232 1074
1976 1504 246 1258
1977 1685 296 1389
1978 1635 338 1297
1979 1590 367 1223
1980 1577 410 1167
1981 1602 449 1153
1982 1337 463 874
1983 1419 449 970
1984 1505 477 1028
1985 1342 459 883
1986 1429 465 964
1987 1420 500 920
1988 1373 519 854
1989 1481 551 930
1990 1539 621 918
1991 1669 669 1000
1992 1579 729 850
1993 1588 782 806
1994 1589 774 815
1995 1578 820 758
1996 1580 888 692
1997 1557 963 594
1998 1520 914 606
1999 1408 980 428
2000 1456 1049 407
2001 1389 1088 301
2002 1288 1115 173
2003 1179 1131 48
2004 1144 1145 -1
2005 1109 1159 -50
2006 1076 1173 -97
2007 1044 1188 -144
2008 1012 1203 -190
2009 982 1218 -236
2010 953 1233 -280
2011 924 1248 -324
2012 896 1264 -367
2013 869 1279 -410
2014 843 1295 -452
2015 818 1311 -493
2016 793 1328 -534
2017 770 1344 -575
2018 747 1361 -614
2019 724 1378 -654
2020 702 1395 -693
2021 681 1413 -731
2022 661 1430 -769
2023 641 1448 -807
2024 622 1466 -844
2025 603 1484 -881
2026 585 1503 -918
2027 568 1521 -954
2028 551 1540 -990
2029 534 1559 -1025')

by **pup55** » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 14:19:25

Mexico:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'year production consumption export
1965 362 302 60
1966 370 315 55
1967 411 337 74
1968 439 368 71
1969 461 390 71
1970 487 419 68
1971 486 442 44
1972 506 490 16
1973 525 525 0
1974 653 601 52
1975 806 676 130
1976 894 746 148
1977 1085 771 314
1978 1327 864 463
1979 1607 932 675
1980 2129 1034 1095
1981 2553 1125 1428
1982 3001 1152 1849
1983 2930 1118 1812
1984 2942 1195 1747
1985 2912 1239 1673
1986 2758 1231 1527
1987 2879 1292 1587
1988 2877 1295 1582
1989 2897 1392 1505
1990 2977 1456 1521
1991 3126 1522 1604
1992 3120 1543 1577
1993 3132 1638 1494
1994 3142 1772 1370
1995 3065 1650 1415
1996 3277 1697 1580
1997 3410 1768 1642
1998 3499 1844 1655
1999 3343 1842 1501
2000 3450 1911 1539
2001 3560 1897 1663
2002 3585 1835 1750
2003 3789 1864 1925
2004 3789 1911 1878
2005 3789 1959 1830
2006 3675 2009 1666
2007 3565 2060 1505
2008 3458 2112 1346
2009 3354 2166 1189
2010 3254 2220 1033
2011 3156 2277 879
2012 3061 2334 727
2013 2970 2393 576
2014 2881 2454 426
2015 2794 2516 278
2016 2710 2580 130
2017 2629 2645 -16
2018 2550 2712 -162
2019 2474 2781 -307
2020 2399 2851 -452
2021 2327 2924 -596
2022 2258 2998 -740
2023 2190 3074 -884
2024 2124 3151 -1027
2025 2060 3231 -1171
2026 1999 3313 -1314
2027 1939 3397 -1458
2028 1881 3483 -1602
2029 1824 3571 -1747')

by **pup55** » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 14:22:13

venezuela

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ear Prod Cons Export
1965 3503 187 3316
1966 3402 190 3212
1967 3576 192 3384
1968 3639 202 3437
1969 3631 203 3428
1970 3754 211 3543
1971 3615 221 3394
1972 3301 239 3062
1973 3455 265 3190
1974 3060 262 2798
1975 2422 254 2168
1976 2371 279 2092
1977 2314 350 1964
1978 2227 385 1842
1979 2425 402 2023
1980 2228 415 1813
1981 2163 408 1755
1982 1954 408 1546
1983 1852 399 1453
1984 1853 370 1483
1985 1744 370 1374
1986 1886 388 1498
1987 1910 391 1519
1988 1998 407 1591
1989 2012 388 1624
1990 2244 397 1847
1991 2501 405 2096
1992 2499 431 2068
1993 2592 430 2162
1994 2752 436 2316
1995 2959 446 2513
1996 3137 426 2711
1997 3321 452 2869
1998 3510 475 3035
1999 3248 474 2774
2000 3321 496 2825
2001 3233 545 2688
2002 3218 594 2624
2003 2987 526 2461
2004 2897 538 2359
2005 2810 551 2260
2006 2726 563 2163
2007 2644 577 2068
2008 2565 590 1975
2009 2488 604 1884
2010 2413 618 1795
2011 2341 633 1708
2012 2271 647 1623
2013 2203 663 1540
2014 2137 678 1459
2015 2073 694 1379
2016 2010 710 1300
2017 1950 727 1223
2018 1892 744 1148
2019 1835 761 1073
2020 1780 779 1001
2021 1726 797 929
2022 1675 816 858
2023 1624 835 789
2024 1576 855 721
2025 1528 875 653
2026 1482 895 587
2027 1438 916 522
2028 1395 938 457
2029 1353 960 393
2030 1312 982 330
2031 1273 1005 268
2032 1235 1029 206
2033 1198 1053 145
2034 1162 1078 84
2035 1127 1103 24
2036 1093 1129 -35

by **pup55** » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 14:23:58

Iran

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'Year Prod Cons Export
1965 1908 201 1707
1966 2132 222 1910
1967 2603 246 2357
1968 2840 271 2569
1969 3376 300 3076
1970 3848 331 3517
1971 4572 366 4207
1972 5059 403 4656
1973 5907 473 5435
1974 6060 503 5557
1975 5387 571 4816
1976 5918 599 5319
1977 5714 638 5076
1978 5302 646 4656
1979 3218 692 2526
1980 1479 625 854
1981 1321 570 751
1982 2397 619 1777
1983 2454 748 1706
1984 2043 812 1231
1985 2205 893 1312
1986 2054 863 1191
1987 2342 891 1452
1988 2349 774 1576
1989 2894 882 2013
1990 3270 951 2320
1991 3500 995 2504
1992 3523 1017 2506
1993 3712 1044 2668
1994 3730 1099 2631
1995 3744 1204 2539
1996 3759 1248 2511
1997 3776 1221 2556
1998 3855 1160 2694
1999 3603 1192 2411
2000 3818 1158 2660
2001 3734 1127 2606
2002 3420 1115 2305
2003 3852 1132 2720
2004 3852 1154 2698
2005 3852 1176 2677
2006 3852 1198 2654
2007 3852 1220 2632
2008 3737 1243 2493
2009 3624 1267 2358
2010 3516 1291 2225
2011 3410 1315 2095
2012 3308 1340 1968
2013 3209 1365 1844
2014 3112 1391 1722
2015 3019 1417 1602
2016 2929 1444 1485
2017 2841 1471 1370
2018 2755 1499 1257
2019 2673 1527 1146
2020 2593 1556 1037
2021 2515 1585 930
2022 2439 1615 824
2023 2366 1645 721
2024 2295 1676 619
2025 2226 1708 518
2026 2160 1740 419
2027 2095 1773 322
2028 2032 1807 225
2029 1971 1841 130
2030 1912 1875 37
2031 1854 1911 -56
2032 1799 1947 -148
2033 1745 1983 -239')

by **pup55** » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 14:26:20

Argentina: This one is not very big, but it is kind of fun:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'year prod cons exports
1965 276 443 -167
1966 293 459 -166
1967 319 471 -153
1968 348 481 -133
1969 362 505 -143
1970 399 456 -56
1971 432 489 -58
1972 444 482 -38
1973 434 485 -51
1974 423 482 -59
1975 406 459 -53
1976 408 477 -69
1977 442 498 -57
1978 466 489 -23
1979 487 528 -40
1980 506 476 29
1981 519 453 66
1982 517 439 78
1983 520 445 75
1984 509 442 67
1985 491 402 88
1986 465 432 34
1987 459 457 2
1988 481 456 26
1989 492 417 76
1990 517 389 129
1991 526 411 114
1992 587 417 170
1993 630 418 212
1994 695 416 280
1995 758 415 343
1996 823 432 391
1997 877 451 426
1998 890 467 422
1999 847 445 403
2000 819 431 388
2001 829 404 425
2002 808 364 444
2003 793 371 423
2004 820 378 442
2005 820 385 435
2006 820 393 427
2007 820 401 419
2008 820 408 412
2009 795 416 379
2010 772 425 347
2011 748 433 316
2012 726 441 285
2013 704 450 254
2014 683 459 224
2015 663 468 195
2016 643 477 166
2017 623 486 137
2018 605 496 109
2019 587 505 81
2020 569 515 54
2021 552 525 26
2022 535 536 0
2023 519 546 -27
2024 504 557 -53
2025 489 568 -79
2026 474 579 -105
2027 460 590 -131
2028 446 602 -156
2029 433 614 -181
2030 420 626 -206
2031 407 638 -231
2032 395 650 -256
2033 383 663 -280
2034 371 676 -305
2035 360 689 -329
2036 349 703 -353')

by **pup55** » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 14:40:18

If someone friendly graphs these out for us, it would be wonderful. I am still too thrifty to have a website.

All historical data came from the BP review.

I averaged each nation's rate of consumption increase over the last 15 years, and projected the same rate going forward.

I also assumed 3% depletion in each of the cases, which might or might not be conservative.

Also, there is some question as to whether Iran is in depletion, so I assumed that they hang in there for a few years at the current rate then start to decline at 3% (to make the curve look nicer).

Most of the pain will occur between now and 2015, and the most painful place will be Mexico. These five countries will account for about 4.5 mbo per day off of the world market by then.

Another big wild card is Saudi. According to the BP review, their internal consumption last year grew at 5.6%, which is a doubling in 12 years. Since there is currently controversy about whether or not they are in depletion, and whether or not they can increase production, suffice it to say that if this growth rate continues, this will cause about 600,000 bpd per year to be taken out of the system.

Most of the rest of these countries' consumption is small compared to their production, so not too exciting.

Russia is another wild card, of course, and there is still some question as to how close they are to depletion.

It is disconcerting to think of Iran being a net importer of oil in 25 years. Maybe that's why they want to start a nuclear program.

by **smiley** » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 16:46:44

Good overview Pup. I think you should add China. Sizable producer and should be peaking within a few years.

And talking about Russia, take a look at this. Looks scary doesn't it?
http://omrpublic.iea.org/supply/ru_to_ts.pdf

by **Permanently_Baffled** » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 16:58:48

Just a quick question, will these middle east producers domestic consumption continue to increase when the world price skyrockets? As I understand it most are not wealthy?

PB

by **pup55** » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 21:09:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'w')ill these middle east producers domestic consumption continue to increase when the world price skyrockets

by **pup55** » Wed 20 Apr 2005, 21:27:02

China:

The BP review thinks 23.67 gb of reserves as of 2003, and approximately 30 gb of cumulative production, therefore they are past mid-point. I assumed a constant domestic production for the next five years, to be a good sport, before 3% depletion sets in.

The current energy growth rate is 11.5% per year, I assumed the more modest 9.5% per year per the news this morning, so that energy use and economic growth can occur at the same rate.

Note that by 2016, China will need to import the equivalent of the US daily consumption, if growth continues at this insane rate.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'Year prod cons net
1965 227 217 10
1966 292 279 13
1967 278 275 3
1968 320 300 19
1969 436 404 32
1970 615 559 56
1971 790 759 31
1972 913 871 42
1973 1075 1067 9
1974 1301 1226 74
1975 1545 1353 193
1976 1743 1546 197
1977 1878 1638 240
1978 2087 1825 262
1979 2129 1833 296
1980 2119 1766 353
1981 2030 1706 324
1982 2048 1658 390
1983 2127 1703 425
1984 2292 1733 559
1985 2505 1809 695
1986 2621 2010 611
1987 2690 2111 579
1988 2741 2209 532
1989 2760 2259 501
1990 2774 2253 521
1991 2828 2411 417
1992 2841 2662 179
1993 2888 2913 -25
1994 2930 3145 -216
1995 2989 3390 -401
1996 3170 3672 -502
1997 3211 3935 -723
1998 3212 4047 -834
1999 3213 4416 -1203
2000 3252 4985 -1732
2001 3306 5030 -1724
2002 3346 5379 -2032
2003 3396 5982 -2586
2004 3396 6640 -3244
2005 3396 7371 -3975
2006 3396 8181 -4786
2007 3396 9081 -5686
2008 3396 10080 -6685
2009 3294 11189 -7895
2010 3195 12420 -9225
2011 3099 13786 -10687
2012 3006 15302 -12296
2013 2916 16986 -14070
2014 2828 18854 -16026
2015 2744 20928 -18185
2016 2661 23230 -20569
2017 2581 25786 -23204
2018 2504 28622 -26118
2019 2429 31770 -29341
2020 2356 35265 -32909
2021 2285 39144 -36859
2022 2217 43450 -41233
2023 2150 48230 -46079
2024 2086 53535 -51449
2025 2023 59424 -57401
2026 1963 65960 -63998
2027 1904 73216 -71312
2028 1847 81270 -79423
2029 1791 90210 -88418
2030 1737 100133 -98395
2031 1685 111147 -109462
2032 1635 123373 -121739
2033 1586 136945 -135359
2034 1538 152008 -150470
2035 1492 168729 -167237')

by **Tanada** » Sat 30 Apr 2005, 16:25:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')2002 3346 5379 -2032
2003 3396 5982 -2586
2004 3396 6640 -3244
2005 3396 7371 -3975
2006 3396 8181 -4786
2007 3396 9081 -5686
2008 3396 10080 -6685
2009 3294 11189 -7895
2010 3195 12420 -9225
2011 3099 13786 -10687
2012 3006 15302 -12296
2013 2916 16986 -14070
2014 2828 18854 -16026

by **pea-jay** » Sat 30 Apr 2005, 19:52:04

Mexican data looks a little optimistic if you ask me. Cantarell peaked early and by PEMEX's own estimates, will have a brutal decline curve.

My natural gas exectutive contact expects that they will cease to export as soon as 2010, just FOUR years post peak.

by **Tanada** » Sun 01 May 2005, 08:24:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', 'M')exican data looks a little optimistic if you ask me. Cantarell peaked early and by PEMEX's own estimates, will have a brutal decline curve.

My natural gas exectutive contact expects that they will cease to export as soon as 2010, just FOUR years post peak.

by **Quicksilver** » Thu 24 Nov 2005, 05:37:39

Iran's oil consumption is growing at 7% per year according to the IEA. If that continues they won't be exporting oil at all within 10 years.

by **pup55** » Thu 24 Nov 2005, 21:42:42

[img][img]http://img474.imageshack.us/img474/9692/irannetexports1fn.th.jpg[/img][/IMG]

Here is a little graph.

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