[Graeme]

Solar Power Grid Parity On The Horizon?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')olar panel sourced power could supply 5% of global electricity demand by 2020, up to 9% by 2030 and up to 20% by 2050, according to a study from the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) and Greenpeace International.

The groups say solar power may also reach the holy grail of grid parity much faster than expected.

The report, “Solar Generation 2010”, predicts investments solar photovoltaic (PV) to increase from €35 billion in 2010 to €70 billion in 2015. Rapidly decreasing prices for solar panels and associated equipment could see home solar power systems able to generate electricity at a cost competitive with fossil fuel based sources by this time.

The report says this looming "grid parity" is an economic breakthrough for solar power and by 2030, up to 2.5 billion people could benefit from solar energy.

Current solar PV capacity could grow from 23 GW at the beginning of this year to 180 GW by 2015 and over 1,800 GW could be installed by 2030, saving as much as 1.4 billion tonnes in CO2 emissions annually.

[cephalotus]

I assume that you will like that study from Q-cells:

http://qcells.de/medien/presse/publikat ... _final.pdf

[Graeme]

Technology Cost Review: Grid Parity for Renewables?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')esearch from the University of Melbourne's Energy Research Institute predicts that the price of wind and solar energy will continue to fall. The Institute's Renewable Energy Technology Cost Review covers the current and future costs of three forms of renewable energy technology - photovoltaic (PV), wind and concentrating solar thermal (CST) - by comparing data from a range of international and Australia-specific studies.

"It's expected, especially in the case of solar technologies, that they'll become very close to competitive with fossil fuels over the next five to 10 years. What this means is that we should be planning for a future with much larger penetrations of renewable energy and focusing on how we get that built and how we can integrate into the system as fast as possible," said Patrick Hearps, one of the lead researchers.

Each of the studies reviewed performed assessments of cost reductions for major plant components, taking into account expected growth and experience. The major opportunities include mass manufacture of mirror components; implementation of higher temperature steam cycles and storage; scale-up of plant sizes; and convoy/experience effects on engineering and indirect overheads. Power tower (central receiver) solar thermal systems are expected to be cheaper than parabolic troughs.

Photovoltaics and wind power have historically shown that a large proportion of cost reductions have come from experience and economies of scale associated with large-scale global deployment - not just improvements in technical efficiency. This is made particularly apparent when displaying a technology learning curve as a function of cumulative installed capacity, rather than time. Therefore any projection of a cost curve over time has an inherent assumption, explicit or not, of the expected growth in deployment of the technology.

[prajeshbhat]

You could follow the work of E-solar company headed by Bill Gross(not the investor, the other Bill Gross who created Idealabs- cool guy). They claim to have built the cheapest solar power tower.
Here is a video where he explains how he applied Moore's Law in solar power.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_249X8ZHIdU

http://www.esolar.com/our_projects/photos.html

[Graeme]

Clean Energy Executives Say Grid Parity Without Subsidies Could Be Just 3 Years Away

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Some of the largest countries on Earth made it clear this week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that, in many cases, renewable energy is just a few years away from reaching grid parity with fossil fuels without subsidies. Worldwide investment in renewable energy totaled $187 billion in 2010, while investment in coal and natural gas was $157 billion. With government subsidies worldwide in jeopardy because of financial woes, the International Energy Agency says countries should hold on for just a few more years until renewables catch up to emissions-laden power companies — which could happen as early as 2015 — after which, it is anyone’s game.


Zhengrong Shi, CEO of Suntech Power holdings said that solar is on track to reach grid parity with coal by 2015 in at least 50 percent of the world’s markets. Vestas, a world leader in turbine manufacturing, expects their turbines to be cost-competitive without incentives “in the coming years”. Jifan Gao, CEO of Trina Solar Ltd. told Bloomberg news he expected his company to be competitive within a decade everywhere and that it is near grid parity in some places already.

[MD]

Grid parity without subsidies? That's a frightening thought. If so, we are much further down the slope than I thought.

[Cog]

Indeed

[Graeme]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'G')rid parity without subsidies? That's a frightening thought. If so, we are much further down the slope than I thought.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'D')on't you think that this is more to do with the reduction in the cost of producing electricity from renewable energy?

[MD]

intentional dumping can be a good thing, long term, for those doing the dumping.

it's the kind of long term risk that is more suitable to asian economic models, than it is western.

[Graeme]

I thought MD was talking about the decline in oil production.

In any case, I found 14 other reasons for the decline in solar costs:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n this decade, installed solar will drop to half its current cost. Such cost reductions will take more than lower costs of silicon panels and thin-film. Process and policy are now key areas for cost reduction. I recently attended the 3rd Annual Solar Leadership Summit hosted by SolarTech. With progress in these areas, solar costs will drop in half:

1.Manufacturing scale
2.Efficiency
3.Balance of System
4.Installation
5.Right Size
6.Right Place
7.Improve Interconnect
8.Markets not Monopolies
9.Policy
10.Process
11.Financing
12.Concentrate
13.Hybrid Systems
14.Storage

[Pops]

I hope the true price will continue down but I'd take forecasts with a grain of salt.

[MD]

The world is changing, fast. It's like an Indy race. Lot's of players will crash and burn along the way.

[kiwichick]

new report from doe estimates up to 30 % of us electricity can be met by wave power

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdat ... 262775.pdf

[vtsnowedin]

The parity gap can be closed in both directions. The cost of coal fired electricity is soaring due to heavy handed regulation by the Obama administration. Don't ask when the gap will close, ask what price we will be paying for the light bill when it closes.

[ralfy]

Repost:

"The Energy Trap"

http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/201 ... ergy-trap/

[Nano]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')rid parity is the point at which alternative means of generating electricity produces power at a levelized cost that is equal to or less than the price of purchasing power from the grid.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'T')he parity gap can be closed in both directions. The cost of coal fired electricity is soaring due to heavy handed regulation by the Obama administration. Don't ask when the gap will close, ask what price we will be paying for the light bill when it closes.

[Serial_Worrier]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'H')ow can the cost of a solar panel go to zero and at the same time the cost of construction of said solar pane be not zero?