[FreddyH]

One of the venues featured at my TrendLines website is our tracking of the global Depletion Outlooks & estimates of URR. 2008 marks our fifth year for this project. It has gained viewership in over 100 countries and includes 22 practitioners. I am especially flattered by the number of post secondary institutions that include it their curriculum. It was on that basis that i was invited to particpate in the NPC Global Study of Oil & Gas in 2007.

And as most of u may know, i've under gone somewhat of an elongated epiphany moment since the NPC Study. Altho known as a proponent of liberal URR estimates, it became clear to me in the NPC deliberations that the All Liquids production profile does not follow the symmetry of the Hubbert Curve.

Albeit non-conventionals have added 20-mbd to Supply to date, from a point fast approaching, they will have no effect on growing the Supply and will thence be assisting in dampening the Decline down slope angle. In short, a 3-Tb URR (or 4, 5, 6 or 7 for that matter) does not mean that the Peak Rate will be near the half way crossovers of those volumes.

In that regard, i have found, frankly, that none of the 22 Outlooks that we include in our Peak Oil Depletion Scenarios Presentation really addresses the deficient flow realities of most non-conventionals. Some don't give non-conventionals merit anyway, but with an avg URR of 3.8-Tb ... most of 'em acknowledge that non Regular Conventional Liquids will play an important role some time in the future.

Since February i have struggled with the proposed Peaks that we've been posting that are getting higher and later due to burgeoning URRs. Everybody but Jean Laherrere is seeking that midpoint a la hubbert.

So this past Autumn, i commenced design of our own model. Flow based. Bottom up analysis. With provision for underlying decline from mature & retired fields (3.9% in 2008). And acknowlegement of the very real massive (and growing) economic volumes of non-conventionals. The profile of the Scenario-2300 (edit: originally "2500") has been thru several drafts and it is perfect by no means. It is ever changing with new data pouring in, but it has attained a profile that i am comfortable with.

As well as defining the past underlying decline, it differs from most studies by its focus on components of the All Liquids family, rather than cumulative totals from petroleum provinces or nations.

I welcome your comments, questions, flames, critiques & ridicule. But please understand that some areas are proprietary. And apologies for the shameless self promotion!

Updates & footnotes are posted at TrendLines

(edit: original charts have been updated down thread)

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', 'I')t was on that basis that i was invited to particpate in the NPC Global Study of Oil & Gas in 2007.

[FreddyH]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'S')o you're plotting historical production as following some other distribution?

How do you explain the difference between your analysis of past growth and that of other researchers?

[FreddyH]

As the dramatic upturn in flows continues along with pertinent revisions in surplus capacity, the March version of the Scenario-2300 (formerly 2500) sees the call for Peak Year postponed to 2019 & Peak Rate increased to 103-mbd.

The unexpected significant rising flows come prior to commissioning of awaited new capacity. Along with other factors, this has reduced my 2008 Underlying Decline Rate (UDR) to 2.55% globally from the 3.9% calculated earlier. Saudi Arabia's UDR is raised to 2.9% and the USA rate remains 4.2%.

The Regular Conventional Oil component of URR has been increased from 1846-Gb to 2305 with a similar offset of the Kerogen portion.

The graphic has been hybridized to show both a (conservative) projection based on analysis of announced MegaProjects and another (optimistic) with a premise of those projects continuing into the future at their six-yr average.

[FreddyH]

April 12th Update: Peak Oil advanced to 2015 @ 97-mbd. See details.

[FreddyH]

May 15th Update: Peak Oil advanced to 2013 @ 91-mbd See new chart, underlying decline rate progress graph & details

comments & questions welcome...

[Troyboy1208]

Pathetic...you post this as a flood of people come into Peakoil.com and think to yourself...man I need to get some of these people to my website to increase traffic. Give it a rest...Aaron should be charging you for your flamboyant self promotion

[FreddyH]

Thanx for your concern, Troy, but i was already three weeks behind in answering emails & PMs when the Wall Street Journal linked to our site on Thursday. If u visit yourself, u will find that we had visitors from 108 nations this Winter.

Have a nice day, eh...