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The Official US Peak Oil Mitigation Stratagy...Well kind of

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

The Official US Peak Oil Mitigation Stratagy...Well kind of

Unread postby mkwin » Thu 11 Oct 2007, 05:38:09

http://www.unconventionalfuels.org/imag ... Final_.pdf Link is broken.;-FL

Your masters obviously know Peak Oil is here or soon to be here. First the Hirsch report, then the NPC now this.
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Re: The Official US Peak Oil Mitigation Stratagy...Well kind

Unread postby Petrodollar » Thu 11 Oct 2007, 12:36:08

I've read a few pages in the report, and in an oblique fashion, this report discusses peak oil - atleast from convential oil sources. For example (pages 26-27):

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]GLOBAL RESERVES DEPLETION
Discovery and production trends support the
depletion view. For the past two decades,
reserve additions have failed to keep pace
with consumption.

Past Discoveries: Worldwide exploration
for oil exploded early in the 20th century.
Giant fields were discovered in Iran, Iraq,
and Kuwait in the 1930’s. Reserve additions
peaked in the 1960’s when 460 billion barrels
of reserves were added in a single ten-year
period (Figure I-1). 2

After 1969, giant field discoveries became
fewer and smaller. By the end of the
twentieth century, industry had discovered
nearly 1.9 trillion barrels of reserves
.

Consumption: Worldwide oil production
has continued to grow to meet rising
demand. Demand has increased nearly tenfold
relative to the modest use of the 1930’s.
As a result, oil is being produced from past
discoveries much faster than it is being
replaced with new discoveries. By 1999,
cumulative production totaled 0.9 trillion
barrels, about half of all of the oil ever
discovered until that time.


A Shrinking Reserves Base: The reserve
base needed to support future production
continues to shrink. The world’s remaining
reserves declined 28 percent between 1980
and 2000 (Figure I-2).3 By 2009, about 60
percent of the world’s cumulative oil reserves
will have been produced. The remaining
known reserves base is not adequate to meet
forecasted future demand through 2019.


The essence of this proposal is to embark on a "aggressive" plan to use unconventional fuels in the US to produce the following about 7 Mb/d of extra liquid fuels by 2035:

Oil Shale - 2.5 Mb/d (good luck!)
Tar Sands - 0.53 Mb/d
Coal Liquids - 2.6 Mb/d
Heavy Oil - 0.75 Md/d
CO2 EOR - 1.3 M/bd

This ongoing faith in oil shale production never ceases to amaze me - its been stuck in the "R&D phase" for 70+ years - with no real results. Anyhow, there are some interesting points in the letter, especially the appendix which includes letters from the Gov of Colorado and Wyoming.
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