[hemmi7]

Hello

Does anybody know if there are any concrete simulation or studies on the Problem?

I mean calculations in the kind of:

When Oilproduction starts to fall by 3% a Year tomorrow, Then:

-Prices for food will rise by xx% instantly and another yy% every year.
-Salaries will drop zz% and then rise aa% per year.
-unemloyment will go up to bb% in n Years and then fall with cc% a year.
-after 5 years dd% of the population will work in the primary sector.
-In the first e years there will starve fffffffffffff to death.
-...

and then you do the same calculations for a decline of 5% a Year, or with 10 % a year.

I know this are extremly difficult calculations because you calculate the world economy in a state it has never been before. So you can only guess the dynamics of the system.

but Somebody must have done something. Or Not?

i searched a lot but found nothing.
I only found general Terms like:
Gasprices will rise ASTRONOMICALLY
Unemployment will be a GIANT problem. (or perhaps it will not because you need a lot of hands in farming)

[MattSavinar]

Google:

"oil shockwave"

"pentagon simulation billions food shortages"

"uk guardian british military report frightening future"

[peasea]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'G')oogle:

"oil shockwave"

"pentagon simulation billions food shortages"

"uk guardian british military report frightening future"

[Cobra_Strike]

The most scary thing of all to realize is that no one really has a good idea of what will happen.

Sure, there are many ideas. Some are in my mind more likely then others.

For example, I am sure that nukes will be used within a year of world wide peak oil awareness.

I also bet that food shortages and lack of water will kill the same number of people even if nukes are not used.

It really is anyones guess at this point, because only time will tell.

[steam_cannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cobra_Strike', 'I') also bet that food shortages and lack of water will kill the same number of people even if nukes are not used.

[Cobra_Strike]

Worse, what even a ten year dust bowl would do to the top soil. What is it now, something like 6 inches?

Largest desert wasteland on the planet.

With frequent flash flooding, which will flood into the gulfs newest dead zone.

[steam_cannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cobra_Strike', 'W')orse, what even a ten year dust bowl would do to the top soil. What is it now, something like 6 inches?

[ohanian]

I found one!

[web]http://www.amazon.com/Asphalt-Concrete-Experimental-Characterization-Geotechnical/dp/0784408254[/web]

[ohanian]

Here is another one

[web]http://www.bfrl.nist.gov/861/vcctl/software/readme.htm[/web]

[steam_cannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohanian', '[')size=200]... Concrete Simulation Software ...[/size]

[Laughs_Last]

VenSim has been used to model the Limits to Growth. With the book in hand for reference and a trial/evaluation version of the modeling software, you can change the relationships, feedback loops, formulas, variables, and even the constants to simulate any number of scenarios. It's fun. We're screwed pretty much no matter what. The only things that change are how we're screwed and by what.

Cheers.

[edit]here's a better link: Forrester's World Dynamics
[web]http://majorityrights.com/index.php/weblog/comments/forresters_limits_to_growth_model_for_your_personal_computer/[/web]

[steam_cannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Laughs_Last', '[')url=http://www.vensim.com/documentation/html/21885.htm]VenSim[/url] has been used to model the Limits to Growth.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cobra_Strike', 'L')argest desert wasteland on the planet.

[hemmi7]

Hello again

This Vensim is the kind of simulation I look for. But I'm interestet in "good" and actual results, and for this you need very good modeldata and starting values, not only some quick guessing.

Every number in this has to be tripple checked by sources that I (we) can not access. To make such a simulation is a task that can occupy hundreds of scientist for years. it's nothing you can quickly set up before going to bed.

i mean this studies in the early seventies were good, but we are now in the late 00s (35 years Later !!!!) . It's ridiculous we refer to models that are stone old

I mean would you believe a weather forecast for tomorrow made with starting values beeing 3 Months old ????

Why does nobody start this (or better ) Programs with actual starting- values ??

[Laughs_Last]

They have been working on the study and model ever since the 70's. Many dozens (hundreds?) of scientists have worked decades on this. Their most recent publications are only a couple years old. Their data has been subjected to much scrutiny. The relative accuracy of past predictions lends credibility to their methodology and the passage of time has allowed for fine-tuning the model.

[jimk]

This RAND study, "Shaping the Next One Hundred Years", is worth a look:

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1626/

[SystemsDude]

Greetings. I just joined the network this evening. My day job is a system dynamics modeler (the same field as Forrester); my evening job is worrying about my children's future. I enjoy the daytime more!

Anyway, I know this is an old, perhaps dead post, but I couldn't help notice you mentioned the world model. You might not have known, but there was an update to the book in 2004 with recent data, etc... You can see a link to the book here:

http://www.chelseagreen.com/bookstore/item/limitspaper

Also, there are versions of the WORLD3 model in Vensim or STELLA/iThink. I don't have the Vensim version, but can pass along the STELLA version for anyone interested.

Chris

[jimk]

Hi Chris,

I am interested in system dynamics and modeling & applying these to resource depletion etc.

I can't say I am any big expert exactly in "system dynamics" but I have a Masters degree in physics, so I have used differential equations to model the dynamics of physical systems, plus I've been developing software for coming up on forty years, so I have spent a lot of time both thinking of software as a system whose dynamics I want to understand, and using software as a tool to model aspects of the world, especially electronic microcircuits as it has turned out, and using the models to explore the dynamic behavior of those aspects of the world. Kind of a long sentence there, sorry!

WRT petroleum, one of my projects is to help people think of the logistic equation as a differential equation together with its family of solutions, rather than just as a "bell curve" that just happens to fit.

The next step is then to look at variations on the logistic differential equation.

One big question with any model is: where to draw the boundaries - what is outside the system, what is inside the system. The other big question is of course how detailed to make the models of the system's internals.

The world models of Forrester et al. clearly drew the boundaries at a very interesting place. As I understand the models, they tend not to be terribly detailed. It's their comprehensiveness that is special.

What is really cool about the logistic equation is that it is so simple.

So what I am trying to explore is how to move from the logistic equation in the direction of the world model, but just taking one or two simple steps. Of course the result will not be as comprehensive as the world model. But because of the simplicity, it might be easier to understand. Also it can focus debate on fewer factors. One problem with a world model is that it can be hard for people to agree about - there is enough in there, everybody can find something to disagree with!

It's like focusing on one article in an encyclopedia versus a whole encyclopedia.

I am not too good with interactive graphics and web stuff. I started programming in 1969! I think I still can program the drum card for an IBM 029 card punch! I made money in school drawing graphs on a 30 inch CalComp drum plotter! So I am a bit of an antique!

One of my fantasies is to build some code, maybe Java, to let people play with parameters and initial conditions on some simple extensions of the logistic differential equation. It can be a fun yet powerful way to learn about the behavior of a system.

How much money and expertise are required to run a model in STELLA/iThink?

I have never played with MatLab. Someday maybe I will register for some college class just to be able to get a student license. That is not cheap software! Plus there are all these (expensive) add-on components that one generally needs.

Anyway, welcome to the party!

Jim

[tsakach]

A group called the Millenium Institute has developed a model of U.S. Energy, called "Threshold 21".

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his paper presents a significantly updated version of the T21 USA model that is designed to analyze
the major energy challenges and choices faced by the USA in the broader context of their relation to
the economy, social factors, and the environment, and with links to the rest of the world as necessary.
Analyzing these issues in a single, integrated framework is complex, but the T21 USA model builds on
the available expertise and detailed models in many sectors to achieve a highly transparent way of
presenting and visualizing the results of different assumptions and policy options, to promote
productive dialogue among different stakeholders, and to help design reasonable policies while
offering options to mitigate possible negative effects.
T21 does not present the ultimate, optimal solution. Rather, it allows users to examine the long term
plausible outcomes of different scenario options and assumptions to assist policy makers,
stakeholders, and the interested public make more informed decisions and reach agreements on how
to move ahead, instead of staying locked in disagreement and inaction.

[djconklin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Laughs_Last', '[')url=http://www.vensim.com/documentation/html/21885.htm]VenSim[/url] has been used to model the Limits to Growth. With the book in hand for reference and a trial/evaluation version of the modeling software, you can change the relationships, feedback loops, formulas, variables, and even the constants to simulate any number of scenarios. It's fun. We're screwed pretty much no matter what. The only things that change are how we're screwed and by what.

Cheers.

[edit]here's a better link: Forrester's World Dynamics
[web]http://majorityrights.com/index.php/weblog/comments/forresters_limits_to_growth_model_for_your_personal_computer/[/web]