[ToveRyan]

I have almost googled my fingers off trying to find some good webpages that deals with the math of hubbert's theory. So far I've only come across one and it doesn't decribe everything I need to know. I would be very very greatful if anyone could help me with this!

[some_guy282]

Not sure what you mean by the math of Hubbert's Peak, but have you seen Dr. Bartlett's lecture on the exponential function? It's a must see.

Bartlet lecture

If you change the last three letters of that link from "ram" to "rm" you can download the video to your hard drive.

[Taskforce_Unity]

Try this one

http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/subpages ... maths.html

Explanation by Luis de Sosa from ASPO Portugal and The Oildrum

[pup55]

Mobjectivist blogspot

Try this one. Hubbert tried to fit the logistic function to the oil data, and also used the verhulst function noted in the article.

Either will be close enough given the data that we are all working with.

Also, if you go to www.graphoilogy.com, and email Khebab, he will help you. He occasionally still posts here, and also posts on The Oil Drum, and has tried to fit various functions to the Hubbert data.

Roper

David Roper is a former prof at Va Tech who applied the Hubbert technique to various other ores and materials, and this may be helpful to you.

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic10625.html

We did a lot of work in this thread on the verhulst and other models, comparing them for error, etc.

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic9205.html

Khebab provided this thread modeling delpletion based on the Ricatti formula.

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic8868.html

Here is a thread where we tried to debug the verhulst model and refine our method a little bit.

Anyway, this should give you a start. If you learn something interesting, try to come back and explain it to us.

[ToveRyan]

Thanx very much! I had a qiuck look at everything (except the Luis de Sosa one, it's already in my favourites and I've read it a few times) but I'm not quite sure if it deals with the questions I need answers too.
I'll be more specific. From what I've understood so far you get the actual peak curve from the time derivate of discovery and production (both of them s-shaped curves). The derivate of discovery and production have the same shape the only difference is that the discovery (of course) comes before the production. And if you take the discovery rate minus the production rate you get the rate of reserve change. But then you can also describe the production rate with the Gaussian or normal funktion.
And from now on I start to get a little confused with things. If you know the peak of discovery you should somehow be able to calculate the peak in production, or delta t between the two peaks. How can I do this?
And then it is also the way Luis de Sosa desciribes it. Is that a third way of doing it?
I'd just love to have a nice webpage describing all this in a nice way to come and rescue me. And also so I can copy the equations and the graphs from somwhere becuase I don't really know how to do exponential functions etc on my computer.

Again, thanx for your help! I will read everything you suggested (and watch) even if it might not answer my question it all seems very interesting.

[savethehumans]

Have you checked over at The Oil Drum? Those people LOVE graphs and maps and calculations and that stuff.

Just a suggestion.