We know in theory that Hubbert Peak predicts a roughly bell shaped production curve - taking the central limit theorum to individual field production curves.
We also know that in the real world a complex feedback loop changes that.
- • High prices mean high discovery and exploitation spend
- • High discovery and exploitation spend means higher production (although delayed)
- • High production means oversupply (or it has until now)
- • Oversupply means lower prices unless production is artificially constrained
- • Wars, disasters and political snits can artificially influence supply, prices, etc.
- • US economic health affects the dollar, which affects how much oil appears to cost for the rest of us
- • Production not made today is available later, with relative ease and speed
- • Physical and manpower resources influence maximum discovery/exploitation rates
- • Economic cycles tend to be longer than oil exploitation times, but short term effects can change drivers faster than oil can react
Given all this, has anyone ever tried to reverse out the influence that known historical events and their feedback have had on the oil production curve? You can do a degree of it by cut and paste, taking the historic production curve and moving/scaling elements after key events (eg oil conservation following OPEC) to arrive at a smoother curve by eye.
Two reasons:
1) simplifying the curve by removing the feedback effects might/should lead to a nice bell curve - which in turn may give clues as to where we are relative to the physical geological/engineering peak.
2) The relative contributions of the feedback loops to distorting the original 'full bore' oil production shape you find by the work can be played forward to determine how the market will continue to react in future (eg you use history to create/validate your understanding of the market influences).
Any pointers, thoughts, references ?
