[venky]

Here is a link.

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/laherrere/EGUVienna2006.pdf

This was at the European Geosciences Union in Vienna.

The key points are the following

*All liquids will peak around 2015 assuming no economic disruptions.

*30 years from now, production of easy oil will be 35% less than to day but production of all liquids (including from coal and biomass) only 5% less than to day.

*Overall URR for all liquids is assumed to be 3 Tb

Ofcourse JD leapt on the second statement; they are having a field day over at POD, but I find statements 1 and 2 hard to reconcile. Like what really are the realistic estimations for NGL, coal to liquid and biomass?

[SoothSayer]

Long term we may indeed have more fuel available than some might think.

However .... if Peak Oil hits say in 2008 ... (we will only have one years notice) ... then we will NOT have any of this fancy biofuel / hydrogen economy / solar / magic mushroom technology in place.

It could be a nasty bump in the road ....