[Aaron]

Seems to me if we append the last 4 years of price data to the follow numbers, it's gonna look nasty.

Anyone wanna try?


http://www.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandf ... w210.shtml

[pup55]

http://inflationdata.com/inflation/imag ... 041817.gif

This guy has done all the work for us, plus has the data in table form for number crunchers.

Kinda like we have been saying, right now much worse than 1973 but not as bad as 1981.

[pup55]

For the entertainment of the forum, note the following:

http://www.energy.ca.gov/reports/DELPHI-9.PDF

Evidently the state of california commissioned a survey every 2 years of the oil price forecasts of various businesses and other organizations, and then summarized it as a "composite forecast". This relic is the 1997 version of this, which "forecast" a 90% worst case scenario oil price of $25 in 2004.

There is a table at the back that lists all of the old forecasts and compares them to the actual historical prices in 1997 dollars. The best forecasts of the current 2004 price were done in 1983 and 1985, when the spike of 1981 was still fresh in peoples' minds. These forecasts did not pick up the low prices of the 90's at all, though.

So what are we to learn from this?

First: The state shelled out some big bucks to produce this composite forecast which was off by a factor of 100%. Evidently they quit doing it at some point, because I could not find more recent versions. Nice work if you can get it.

Second: People tend to forecast not too divergently from their recent experience.

[pup55]

Here is a 1997 forecast from our friend Mr. Lynch:

http://www.house.gov/science/michael_lynch.htm

Kinda funny, really. Isn't he the guy that was criticizing Campbell's forecasting skills the other day?

[SimianCEO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'H')ere is a 1997 forecast from our friend Mr. Lynch:

http://www.house.gov/science/michael_lynch.htm

Kinda funny, really. Isn't he the guy that was criticizing Campbell's forecasting skills the other day?

[backstop]

Pup55 - thanks for posting the Oil prices graph above - really useful.

I'm intrigued by the 'received wisdom' across the media in the last few days that the previous peak was $80 in present value, when this shows ~ $66.

If, big if, demand destruction began at the same level this time round, then we've only another $16 of rises to go before it starts.

Would anyone put up an analysis of an idea on the date of peak ? This is that peak oil is the date the next recession begins, since with, say, 3 years of no growth in global oil consumption, we'd be depleting reserves at present rates, and would thus have lowered the production capacity as the economy tried to get back into growth ?

There are many variables of course, not least being the effort that goes into raising energy efficiency during recession. But I'm wondering if the idea makes sense in the round ???

regards,

Backstop

[pup55]

I think the $60-$65 figure is the "year average" oil price, not to be confused with the "peak" price which might have been in the $80's temporarily. By the same logic, this year's "year average" price is somewhere in the 40's at this point, no doubt.

It will be interesting to see first, whether the price gets that high, and second, whether there is actual demand destruction caused by this high price.

As to whether the next recession is an indicator that the peak has hit, far be it from me to predict anything. I am not at all sure if it is the next one, or the last one, or the one that will hit in 2010. Maybe some of the forum rats will tell us what they think.

I will say this, though: re: this supposed 3.3% growth rate that was announced today, I think they need to subtract some for the effect of the massive borrowing and military spending that is irresponsibly pumping money into the economy, that will have to be paid back painfully at some point. If you do that, you can make the argument that the economy has been in "functional recession" since about November 2000, and it does not appear that the demand for energy has been killed off yet. At some point, these chickens will come home to roost, though.

[Soft_Landing]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think the $60-$65 figure is the "year average" oil price, not to be confused with the "peak" price which might have been in the $80's temporarily. By the same logic, this year's "year average" price is somewhere in the 40's at this point, no doubt.

[lowem]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Soft_Landing', 'I') think the average WTI Crude price over the last 12 months is about $37, and the average since January is a bit above $39. Not quite $40 yet, but certainly on it's way. The price started the year round $34, and didn't even cross $40 till May...