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US Oil Supply

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US Oil Supply

Unread postby MD » Mon 06 Jun 2016, 04:39:06

Image

#1-Canada

Much of Fort McMurray has burned to the ground. Tar sands production will be impacted for some time.

#2-Mexico

Stable for the moment?

#3- Venezuela

Also in the process of being "burned to the ground".

#4- Nigeria

Burning. Disrupted.

Is anyone paying attention to the short to mid-term impact of these disruptions?

Approximately 20% of US import streams are at risk. Is there a problem here?

It appears that North America is in the process of being fractured, in so many not-so-nice ways.
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Re: US Oil Supply

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 06 Jun 2016, 06:07:34

The price of gasoline on the corner here in Kalifornia is $3.15/gallon, among the highest in the nation. But not so long ago, it was $5.63 and the citizens did not even notice much. Doubtless when it crosses $10/gallon, some will loudly voice displeasure as they fill their SUV tanks.

Believe me, I understand the impact this has on people, especially elderly MidWesterners who may have to drive for an hour or more just to get medical care, after Obamacare closed so many local community medical providers. Unfortunately when it comes to energy policy, our politicians take care of those who pay the most, and pay them regularly.

It's our system of government, dealing with looming fossil fuel shortages.

Burn baby burn.
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Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
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Re: US Oil Supply

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 06 Jun 2016, 06:22:52

Your chart is way out of date. Currently we are producing 67% of our 19.54 mbpd consumption.
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/us_oil.cfm
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Re: US Oil Supply

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 06 Jun 2016, 08:53:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'Y')our chart is way out of date. Currently we are producing 67% of our 19.54 mbpd consumption.
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/us_oil.cfm


A couple interesting things popped out at me from this chart, first USA oil inventories stayed low and prices stayed fairly high right up until mid 2014. Not surprisingly if you compare the WTI to the USA inventory levels they have an inverse relationship very obvious from June 2014 right through January 2016.

However, while inventories continued to grow from January through April 2016 prices also started coming back up as well. Now with the disruptions cited in the OP inventories are starting to fall and prices are still slowly rising.

The summer driving season in North America is now upon us, so consumers expect prices to rise a bit. The question becomes, with world oil supplies now shrinking due to increased demand, depletion and lack of investment in fields from low price how high will prices get this summer and how quickly will inventories return to the historical range?
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Re: US Oil Supply

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 06 Jun 2016, 15:06:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '[')img]http://www.npr.org/news/graphics/2012/04/gr-oilprod-300.gif[/img]

#1-Canada

Much of Fort McMurray has burned to the ground. Tar sands production will be impacted for some time.

#2-Mexico

Stable for the moment?

#3- Venezuela

Also in the process of being "burned to the ground".

#4- Nigeria

Burning. Disrupted.

Is anyone paying attention to the short to mid-term impact of these disruptions?

Approximately 20% of US import streams are at risk. Is there a problem here?

It appears that North America is in the process of being fractured, in so many not-so-nice ways.


For Fort McMurray, CBC reports that most of the oil facilities are undamaged and about a quarter of the city population has already returned now that mandatory evacuation has been lifted. I think they will be back up to speed in a couple months.

Mexico I will live to people living closer, I have been to Canda but not to Mexico.

Venezuela is a mess, no telling what will happen there. Maybe President Hillary will arrange a Regime Change to straighten things out.

Nigeria seems to go through periods with lots of rebel turmoil alternating with peaceful coexistence. Any idea how things will work out there?
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Re: US Oil Supply

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 06 Jun 2016, 20:25:16

The Canadian tar sands is only part of their production and exports to USA. I expect their exports to remain steady or gradually increase. Mexico on the other hand is declining due to government corruption and mis-administration. Look to them to become an importer instead of exporter within ten years. Venezuela? fogedaboutit. Africa ? don't count those chickens. Middle East? Before or after the Persian-Arab war? After not so much unless you don't mind your car tripping Geiger counters.
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