by Valdemar » Tue 01 Apr 2008, 18:37:58
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Oh, is that what we're about?
I didn't think our loyal opposition was arguing that we were not going to run out.
I thought their position was that we're not going to run out soon.
So, the way I cut it, they have the scientifically weaker position.
But, if a gun was held to my head, I certainly wouldn't claim, 100%, that I can't be wrong about this.
Maybe not geologically, but other factors are playing with this here. We've seen geo-political and other aspects of the global system hamper oil output, even when production could theoretically be higher. The purists may argue we've not hit peak until the wells hit their perfect, all time record pump rate and then decline. In reality, this isn't really useful given society can still feel the pain if the bottleneck is caused by geology or a tinpot dictator holding back oil for personal gain.
Personally, I only care about the end result, not how we get there. If we're having problems meeting demand now, who cares whether it's because Big Oil has run out of reserves we can use easily or if it's down to random guerilla movement A hitting oil field B?