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US Oil Production is actually up?!?

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US Oil Production is actually up?!?

Unread postby mekrob » Fri 20 Apr 2007, 11:25:46

Oil and Gas Journal's April 9th print edition on page 6 shows some very interesting numbers for the year to date averages of this year compared to last year.

Motor gasoline demand is up 2.2% from 8.897 mpd to 9.093 mpd.
Crude production (US) is up 5.0% from 5.037 mpd to 5.290 mpd.
Total Demand is also up 2.7% from 20.374 mpd to 20.915 mpd.

Most surprising to me is the increase in crude production. What has made it jump 5% in a single year when we usually decrease by 2-3% per year? Is it just because of resumption of activities in the Gulf after Katrina and Rita?
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Re: US Oil Production is actually up?!?

Unread postby Madpaddy » Fri 20 Apr 2007, 11:28:30

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mcrfp4e1m.htm

Looks like a recovery after 2005 disaster to me.
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Re: US Oil Production is actually up?!?

Unread postby MD » Fri 20 Apr 2007, 11:31:30

Strong demand and high price bringing previously marginal production back into play.

Remember that new production is subject to increased development cost due to increased energy costs but existing production can be brought back on line to take advantage of high prices.

It's no surprise. It won't be significant or long-lasting either.

Energy use patterns will have to change. Say goodbye to easy motoring.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: US Oil Production is actually up?!?

Unread postby pup55 » Fri 20 Apr 2007, 11:56:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ooks like a recovery after 2005 disaster to me.


This is what I am thinking. If you go back to the November/December time frame, production was about 5.29-5.3 most of the time, so it was higher at the end of the year than it was in the beginning.

So it looks like the stats are skewed a little bit because we were still recovering from the storms.

Since then though it has been slowly dropping every week. Last week it was 5.191.

So, on the year-to-date stuff you have to take into consideration some unusual condition that existed last year that does not exist now.

A better comparison might be to go back to the spring of '05: it was 5.649 at that point, so we have lost about 9% in two years.
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Re: US Oil Production is actually up?!?

Unread postby kmann » Fri 20 Apr 2007, 12:54:35

It was the gulf hurricanes. I remember reading MMS reports on recovery efforts well into 2006. Some 200,000 bbl/day of production was permantly lost because of the storms IIRC.
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Re: US Oil Production is actually up?!?

Unread postby Coolman » Fri 20 Apr 2007, 13:11:50

It is probably just a small jump from deep water. Even ASPO predicted this. The ride will resume soon. By 2020 US production should be way down.

http://www.markt-daten.de/Chartbook/ima ... ak-oil.gif
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Re: US Oil Production is actually up?!?

Unread postby Gazzatrone » Fri 20 Apr 2007, 15:15:17

OK, fess-up! Who turned the graph upside-down?
THE FUTURE IS HISTORY!
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Re: US Oil Production is actually up?!?

Unread postby bonjaski » Sat 21 Apr 2007, 09:17:26

this shows that oil production still is only a matter of price,

we alle know that we have enough fossil hydrocarbons for the next 200years,
its only a matter of price to turn them in something useful
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Re: US Oil Production is actually up?!?

Unread postby Newsseeker » Sat 21 Apr 2007, 09:23:11

200,000 barrels is still not that much
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Re: US Oil Production is actually up?!?

Unread postby Gazzatrone » Sat 21 Apr 2007, 17:24:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bonjaski', 't')his shows that oil production still is only a matter of price,

we alle know that we have enough fossil hydrocarbons for the next 200years,
its only a matter of price to turn them in something useful


OK your not actually being serious are you?
THE FUTURE IS HISTORY!
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