[lateStarter]

Anyone else read his articles on MSN? I think he gets it on some level and then misses the boat on the big picture. Perhaps it is a generational thing. It seems to me that he realizes something is wrong, but can't quite nail it down. After posting his observations, he goes on to recommend 'Business as Usual'. He might be the closet thing in MSM (besides Tom Whipple -ok not exactly MSM!) that actually has someting to say.

Having said that, how many American's actually read Jubak's articles? My guess is only the top 5% (People who have money to invest) and those that do are probably in the same boat as Jubak.

Unfortunately, the question they are all asking is the wrong question: what can we do to maintain our current standard of living? Any thoughts?

[chakra]

I too read everything he posts on MSN. I think he really does understand the current picture, but he chooses his words carefully because of his audience. It's surprising how much information he packs into his articles and how much he seems to know about each topic he discusses. He's either extremely well read or does a lot of research for each article.

I'm always amazed when I see his almost doomer style revelations on a web page that's so popular like MSN. That page must get 100's of millions of hits a day since it's the default page for internet explorer, but I'm sure most of the audience doesn't bother to read anything in the money section. Even if a million people read his articles though, that's a lot of people out there spreading something closer to the truth.

[MaterialExcess]

I read his articles all the time. He seems like a smart guy. I think his "business as usual" recommendation is for the very short term. Lately he has been very worried over the debt bubble. I think he was expecting a crash in the latter half of 2007 or 2008. This guy used to be fairly optimistic. Perhaps it is an ominous sign that he is switching over to the doomer side.

MSN did also have that Bill Fleckenstein guy who is a hardcore doomer. I'm not sure if his articles still appear on MSN though.

[gg3]

One thing to keep in mind is that one's personal economic circumstances can act as a cushion against recognizing certain types of unpleasant realities. So the question to ask is, what is this guy's audience?, as that will say much about how he has to phrase his articles in order to reach them.

At the extreme end of the spectrum, someone who's lived off a managed trust fund all their lives has no direct experience of the real downside of anything involving business, markets, and competition.

People who have worked at high-paid corporate jobs are also pretty well insulated from competition where it counts: they may compete for promotions but they are not usually facing a downside risk that includes loss of basics such as housing or health care.

Entrepreneurs and people in small to medium business have a much more direct experience of competition and its risks, and are usually standing on more realistic ground when it comes to evaluating downside scenarios. They generally don't shy away from bad news even when it's stated in blunt language.

Hands-on investors who have built up their funds from scratch the hard way, tend to be highly realistic. On the other hand, investors who are handling other peoples' money, for example fund managers, may have a harder time understanding the implications of system-level crises.

Each of these constituencies is an entirely different culture, with its own language and its own beliefs about the way the world works and what happens when things break.

[Heineken]

Jubak was pumping tech stocks right up until the 2000 crash. I don't think he has any unique claim to wisdom . . . good writer, though, and I'm glad to hear he now at least senses that something is terribly wrong.

I'm completely out of the market now.

[master_rb]

Heineken if i remember correctly you left the market in the right time, we had a few slides lately plus the housing hasn't hit yet, dollar's kinda going down - probobly will more, not to mention that if doomers are right we're close to PO

so if everything aligns fortunately (or maybe not so fortunately) you would be a lucky one with leaving the market during Peak Market

[pea-jay]

I've been partially pleased with the quality of his work and if he isnt broaching the issues head on, he is atleast skating closer to the edge than most MSM media types get.

ANother CNBC/MSNBC writer I like is Bill Fleckenstein and his Contrarian Chronicles. That guy redefines pessimism. He was out sounding the alarm on the housing bubble for a long time before others picked up on it. His stuff is Peak OIl unaware however.

Somebody ought to educate him on the issue. I think he has the right temperment to run with something that is a total bummer to mainstream thought and expectations.

[NEOPO]

I think Jubak is quite aware yet he has a job to do and it isnt to tell us when to run for the hills although I agree that lately his offerings have leaned alittle to the doomer side.

I cannot think of the name of the senior staff writer yet after all the PO related articles MSNBC ran last year I can't imagine he is not also very aware.

Sounds like I need to look up some articles by Fleckenstein...

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('master_rb', 'H')eineken if i remember correctly you left the market in the right time, we had a few slides lately plus the housing hasn't hit yet, dollar's kinda going down - probobly will more, not to mention that if doomers are right we're close to PO

so if everything aligns fortunately (or maybe not so fortunately) you would be a lucky one with leaving the market during Peak Market

[lateStarter]

Heineken wrote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n general, I don't pay much attention to corporate-media types like Jubak. He's OK as far as they go, but it's the obscure, brilliant William Millers you want to find to guide you.

[Heineken]

Maybe "guide" was too strong a word. Let's say Miller was an influence on me, along with some others.

I can tell I don't care about stocks anymore, since apparently I've already forgotten that his name is actually Lowell Miller, not "William Miller"!!

How did you get 90% out of your 401(k)? Are you older than 59 1/2?

I'd cash out now, but I would take a 30% tax hit. I'm 51 so I have a bit of waiting to do . . . I'm gambling that "the fan" can keep spinning clear of human waste that long . . . maybe foolish am I.

[lateStarter]

Heineken wrote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow did you get 90% out of your 401(k)? Are you older than 59 1/2?

[Heineken]

I agree as to direction, but not necessarily timing.

I also quit my job and started my "lifetime" pension early---to try to squeeze whatever I can squeeze out of it before it goes poof.

Along with the pension, I have a low-six-figure annuity (TIAA-CREF) and a low-six-figure 401(k) that I haven't tapped into yet.

I can start the annuity whenever I want. Maybe I should do so sooner rather than later, even though the monthly payment will be much lower than if I'd waited. I'd never even considered cashing out the annuity---is that even possible, unless you're dying or something?

According to my former employer, if I cash out the 401(k) they withhold 20% right off the top; then there's a 10% federal penalty added on for being younger than 59 1/2, and the possibility of a further state penalty. 30+% equals "ouch."

I'll be 59 1/2 in about 8 years. Do you think it's foolish to expect the world to hang together for 8 more years?

[lateStarter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'I') agree as to direction, but not necessarily timing.

I also quit my job and started my "lifetime" pension early---to try to squeeze whatever I can squeeze out of it before it goes poof.

Along with the pension, I have a low-six-figure annuity (TIAA-CREF) and a low-six-figure 401(k) that I haven't tapped into yet.

I can start the annuity whenever I want. Maybe I should do so sooner rather than later, even though the monthly payment will be much lower than if I'd waited. I'd never even considered cashing out the annuity---is that even possible, unless you're dying or something?

[max_power29]

My opinion is about 5 years. I would be itching to get my 401k money right now if I were you. About 70 percent is better than a possible 0 percent. The question is: What are you going to do with the money? I would take the penalties and buy precious metals, ammo, firearms, food, land, or tools etc. with it.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')From all that I have read about your current situation here at PO.com, it sounds like you are doing all the right things. I'm actually jealous that you are so far ahead of me. If you don't need the cash at the moment to continue with your prep plans, let it sit.

. . .

I'll send you a link to the Picassa albums of our property and efforts if you are interested.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('max_power29', 'M')y opinion is about 5 years. I would be itching to get my 401k money right now if I were you. About 70 percent is better than a possible 0 percent. The question is: What are you going to do with the money? I would take the penalties and buy precious metals, ammo, firearms, food, land, or tools etc. with it.

[lateStarter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')From all that I have read about your current situation here at PO.com, it sounds like you are doing all the right things. I'm actually jealous that you are so far ahead of me. If you don't need the cash at the moment to continue with your prep plans, let it sit.

. . .

I'll send you a link to the Picassa albums of our property and efforts if you are interested.