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THE Collapse of the US Thread (merged)

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THE Collapse of the US Thread (merged)

Unread postby Pops » Mon 31 May 2004, 23:55:22

Many assessments take for granted that the US GOV. will be nonexistent within 3-5 years post peak. This seems preposterous to me. I may be deluded, but I believe the GOV is me.

The senators, congressmen, justices and administration aren’t the GOV; I am. The military, FEMA, Ashcroft, and Bush aren’t; I am.

I may not like the party in power, or the policies it promotes, but I like the fact that while the last election was possibly the most contentious in history - no one fired one shot in the street.

Don’t relegate post-peak America to history. We’ll still be here.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Unread postby k_semler » Tue 01 Jun 2004, 01:29:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The Unanimous Declaration of the Thirteen United States of America', '.')..That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any form of government becomes destructive to these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness...


That was directly from the directly from the Declaration of Independance of the United States of America. I belive this to be very true. A govornment can only exist with the consent and co-operation of the citizens. Yes, the millitary may have some awesome weapons capable of massive destruction, the govornment only employs 2,690,149, according to the United States Census Bearu. There are 290,693,125 residents of the US discounting govornment employees, according to the Census Bearu.
This means that for every govornment employee, there is 108.05837334660645191028452327362 people. I would say that the odds are in our favor if a massive rebellion were to take place. 110 men on one person would certianly ensure the death and mutulation of that person. If the population so desired, we could institute a "regieme change", and instill any type of govorment we wish

As the veitnam war proved, a dedicated opposition force can render the best millitary in the world ineffective. If we as a population wished to end the current form of govornment here in the United States, we could do so. However, since such a massive uprising did not occur, it is obvious that this govornment is adequate for our country. I personally feel that it has the flaws, but there is no perfect govornment. I am largly in agreement with most govornmental policies, so I have no desire to participate in a rebellion, even though the sheer population numbers would ensure a victory.

Plus, if everyone is revolting, where would the govornment target? The only sure way to ensure that the current govornment would win this war would be to use nuclear weaponry. If this were done, then there would be no population to govorn, and thier utility would no longer be required. This is why I belive that a govornment can only be ruled by a cooperative and permitting society.
Here Lies the United States Of America.

July 04, 1776 - June 23 2005

Epitaph: "The Experiment Is Over."

Rest In Peace.

Eminent Domain Was The Murderer.
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Unread postby k_semler » Tue 01 Jun 2004, 01:33:20

Ah shit. I did not mean to put in quotes the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th paragraphs. I used the </quote> tag instead of </url>. I would appriciate it if the Admin could add an edit button to the open forums to edit your posts like in the roundtable fourms.

[EDIT by OilBurner: I've changed your post as you described]
Here Lies the United States Of America.

July 04, 1776 - June 23 2005

Epitaph: "The Experiment Is Over."

Rest In Peace.

Eminent Domain Was The Murderer.
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Small number of government people

Unread postby Fellow slave » Tue 06 Jul 2004, 03:01:51

The relationship between the US population and the relatively tiny number of government bodies sort of reminds me of a Southern Plantation, pre Civil War; don't think it took that many people to keep those slaves in line either. I wonder how many warm bodies Stalin had on the government payroll in relationship to the total Soviet population when he went on his mass extermination binge. Same for Hitler and his bunch. All in all, I think you will find that it really doesn't take all that much manpower to keep us under their collective thumb.
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Re: Small number of government people

Unread postby MattSavinar » Wed 07 Jul 2004, 02:14:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fellow slave', 'T')he relationship between the US population and the relatively tiny number of government bodies sort of reminds me of a Southern Plantation, pre Civil War; don't think it took that many people to keep those slaves in line either. I wonder how many warm bodies Stalin had on the government payroll in relationship to the total Soviet population when he went on his mass extermination binge. Same for Hitler and his bunch. All in all, I think you will find that it really doesn't take all that much manpower to keep us under their collective thumb.


So true. You want to know an unbelievable story?

One of the first presidents - I think it was Jackson - was marching through a state in the South with his brother and about 25 slaves.

To ward off the slave-stealing bandits, Jackson and his brother unchained their slaves and give them guns!

No bandits attacked them on the trip through this particular state.

Once they were out of the particular state, the slaves voluntarily gave back the guns and allowwed themselves to be put back in chains!

Speaks volumes about human psychology.

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From a post on another board

Unread postby DDHTF » Sat 10 Jul 2004, 03:01:59

At about the time our original 13 states adopted their new constitution, in the year 1787, Alexander Tyler (a Scottish history professor at The University of Edinburgh) had this to say about "The Fall of The Athenian Republic" some 2,000 years prior.
"A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, (which is) always followed by a dictatorship.
The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the beginning of history, has been about 200 years. During those 200 years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence.
From Bondage to spiritual faith;
From spiritual faith to great courage;
From courage to liberty;
From liberty to abundance;
From abundance to complacency;
From complacency to apathy;
From apathy to dependence;
From dependence back into bondage."
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Unread postby MadScientist » Sat 10 Jul 2004, 07:23:14

and we are so dependant :\
"The future power is manpower"
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Re: Small number of government people

Unread postby JayHMorrison » Sat 10 Jul 2004, 10:50:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fellow slave', 'T')he relationship between the US population and the relatively tiny number of government bodies sort of reminds me of a Southern Plantation, pre Civil War; don't think it took that many people to keep those slaves in line either. I wonder how many warm bodies Stalin had on the government payroll in relationship to the total Soviet population when he went on his mass extermination binge. Same for Hitler and his bunch. All in all, I think you will find that it really doesn't take all that much manpower to keep us under their collective thumb.


The US gov't does not operate that way. We can overthrow our gov't every two years for the house of reps. 1/3 of the senate every two years. The president every 4 years.

If the gov't is screwing up, the current party in power will likely get tossed out and the other party will get a chance.

I know it is a strange concept. But it has worked well for over 200 years. It will likely work post peak oil also.
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Unread postby Aaron » Sat 10 Jul 2004, 11:05:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Althingi was established in 930 in Iceland by Viking-era settlers. The world's oldest legislative body is now Iceland's official parliament.


http://www.govspot.com/know/legbody.htm
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Unread postby smiley » Sat 10 Jul 2004, 12:24:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he US gov't does not operate that way. We can overthrow our gov't every two years for the house of reps. 1/3 of the senate every two years. The president every 4 years
.

Yes, but are they running the country? In Europe as well as America the most powerful groups are the lobbyists. They consist of influential individuals and companies. No administration (republican or democratic) can bypass them.

You probably know this group for they are responsible for the course of the current administration. However, their website also shows how they helped shape the policy of the Clinton administration.

http://www.newamericancentury.org/state ... ciples.htm

How do you overthrow these people?
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Unread postby JayHMorrison » Sat 10 Jul 2004, 12:49:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he US gov't does not operate that way. We can overthrow our gov't every two years for the house of reps. 1/3 of the senate every two years. The president every 4 years
.

Yes, but are they running the country? In Europe as well as America the most powerful groups are the lobbyists. They consist of influential individuals and companies. No administration (republican or democratic) can bypass them.

You probably know this group for they are responsible for the course of the current administration. However, their website also shows how they helped shape the policy of the Clinton administration.

http://www.newamericancentury.org/state ... ciples.htm

How do you overthrow these people?


Lobbyists do not control the gov't. To say something like that would indicate that they all speak the same on every issue and move in the same direction in lock step. That is not true. They compete on EVERY issue. For every vote there are likely lobbyists on both sides of the issue.

For example:
Trial Lawyers vs Business Groups on tort reform
Labor Unions vs Business on minimum wage, trade, work place issues

That happens on just about every issue that governments at every level face. It is not unique to the USA. It is that way in just about every country.

And having a revolt and/or overthrow of the govt will not change that reality. Those with an interest in the decisions that gov'ts make will always lobby gov't.

It is simplistic to think that will change. It will not. Regardless of what form of gov't you have, there will be people who seek to influence the decisions that are made.

Democracy is the worst form of government, except when comparing it to all of the others.
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Unread postby JayHMorrison » Sat 10 Jul 2004, 12:59:37

I think the strongest evidence of how strong our democracy is will be determined in November 2004. The most powerful man in the world (GWB) will likely be removed from power.

There will not be a revolt.
There will be no martial law.

We will have a lot of heated words and debate on TV, in newspapers and on the radio.

But none of the political opponents will be thrown in jail. (like Yukos CEO in Russia)
None of the opponents will be killed. (common in other countries)

It will simply be a vote and the decision will be accepted by everyone. We will live with that decision for at least until 2006. Then we can vote on Congress again.

In this country, there is no need for revolts and overthrowing a gov't. If you dislike the current gov't or it's policies, you can vote for someone else. If you dont see a candidate you like, run for office yourself.
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Unread postby Leanan » Sat 10 Jul 2004, 20:26:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, (which is) always followed by a dictatorship.


Except that we realize it's our money we're spending.

However, you do have a point. Tainter (in The Collapse of Complex Societies) says that this is a major issue for every society, from simple tribes run by "Big Men," to chiefdoms, to societies such as our own. Those in power control their people through bribery. Coercion may play a role, but it's a very inefficient way of controlling a society, and tends not to last long. Instead, the elite must buy legitimacy through material gifts. In a simple society, such gifts may be meat or furs or beads. In our society, they are paved roads, water supply sytems, student loans, Social Security, an army.

And the tension remains the same, whether you are a Big Man trying to increase the size of your tribe, or the President of the United States. You have to balance the interests of different groups of people. Do you increase the loyalty of your current followers by giving them more, or do you try to win over new followers by giving them things (at the expense of your current followers)?

Tainter refers to something called "output failure" (emphasis mine):

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')utput failure occurs where authorities are unable to meet the demand of the support population, or do not take anticipatory actions to counter adversities. Outputs can be political or material. Output expectations are continuous, and impose on leadership a never-ending need to mobilize resources to maintain support. The attainment and pepetuation of legitimacy thus require more than the manipulation of ideological symbols. They require the assessment and commitment of real resources at satisfactory levels, and are a genuine cost than any complex society must bear. Legitimacy is recurrent factor in the modern study of the nature of complex societies, and is pertinent to the understanding of collapse.


Yes, democracy is a noble ideal. But it will take more than faith in an ideal to maintain our government. If the government can no longer provide us with the material resources we demand, history suggests that it will collapse.
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Unread postby Pops » Sat 10 Jul 2004, 21:32:00

I guess I should restate my original post:

“The senators, congressmen, justices and administration aren’t the GOV, nor are their laws and policies; I am.”

I’m not looking for what they can give me, since they serve me and I give to them to provide roads, etc. I may not like everything my peers decide, but that is how we work.

I may not state many absolutes but this is one; I will vote on every Election Day – one way or another. I'm pretty pragmatic and flexible about most ideals, but I'm very confident that there are others who feel the same regarding this one.

When I’m dead then something else may happen – but I think it will only happen if my kids are gone as well.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Unread postby Leanan » Sun 11 Jul 2004, 10:43:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') may not state many absolutes but this is one; I will vote on every Election Day – one way or another.


It's easy to vote. Will you pay taxes?

Of course we all pay taxes now. If we don't, there are penalties. And we like what we get from our taxes: Social Security, paved roads, clean water, education for our children.

But what happens when the government keeps raising taxes, but we get less and less from back from them...and they are so remote that if you don't pay, they don't come after you? Will people keep paying? Maybe some will, but I suspect most will not. Especially if times are tough. Without compliant taxpayers, the government will collapse.
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Cross Post

Unread postby Aaron » Sun 11 Jul 2004, 11:39:12

The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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I disagree with Mr. Morrison

Unread postby Fellow slave » Sun 11 Jul 2004, 20:02:09

First of all voting every two or four years selecting from a group of people all who have as their fundamental belief the supremacy of government over individuals is hardly a choice. The Democrats and Republicans just keep piling law upon law. Government, as measured by money spent, has grown from maybe 5% 200 years ago up to nearly 50% now, so the free economy has gone from 95% to 50% of economic activity in 200 years. Laws are so pervasive that you probably break a dozen an month without even realizing it. Government is a magnet for those who believe in power and control, not for those who believe in freedom. I see elections just as contests to see which individuals or group of will fill the offices as your rulers. Democracy is a system of choosing rulers, and can coexist with either freedom or slavery, but at has been pointed out democracy usually degenerates into plunder thru the force of government. Freedom vs slavery is whether you own yourself and have a right to keep the fruits of your labor, and to chose your personal behavior, or whether someone or some organization owns you and determines how much of the fruits of your labor you keep and how much they take, and what personal behavior is appropriate. Think of the USA as one big plantation with a small group living in the plantation house, a small group or hired hands physically poping the whip over the slaves, and the great majority being slaves.

A good part of what government does is pass out privelege. The best priveleges go to those who fund the politicians and once these privelege laws go into effect they disrupt the normal free economy by transferring by the force of governemnt wealth out of the hands of the majority into the hands of those granted prievelge by these laws.

Then there are the vote buying laws that pass out to the gullible small benefits to keep them beholding to those in power. These are the type laws referred to by DDHTF.

Then there are the moralistic laws that come from our Puritan heritage; we must not have fun so drug, prostitution, gambling and all the other victimless things people do become the business of politicians and their employees. I have more than once had the thought that the politicians deep down know what crooks they are, so they compensate by trying to look super moral, hence their support of these type laws.

Anyway it will likely be a moot point within 15 years after peak oil. Those of you who have the survival wolf knocking at your door suddenly won't be sitting passively supporting a governemnt that has done nothing more than plunder its citizenry over at least the last 150 years. The only way that government survived was that the standard of living went up in spite of their actions. What chance will they have when the standard of living is plunging. Civil war/ revolution is inevitable early this centry in my view, and the USA as it is known today will not likely continue to exist.
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Unread postby Leanan » Sun 11 Jul 2004, 21:29:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')overnment, as measured by money spent, has grown from maybe 5% 200 years ago up to nearly 50% now, so the free economy has gone from 95% to 50% of economic activity in 200 years.


Yes. This is a point Tainter makes. Complex societies have complex problems. And this complexity has a cost - in energy.

I'm not anti-government, mind. I doubt we'd be able to maintain our current population density and way of life without our expensive, complex government, with all its laws, taxes, etc.

But how long can we keep it up? I suspect not for much longer, peak oil or no peak oil. We've succeeded as long as we have by constantly finding resources that were more energy-dense than the ones we were using before. That allowed us to increase the complexity of our society, and keep solving the problems that arose. But it can't go on forever. Eventually, complex societies collapse under their own weight.
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Unread postby Guest » Sun 11 Jul 2004, 21:43:37

Keep in mind, we're just a baby of a country at 200 years old.

There have been a lot of other civilizations that lived far longer than we have.

I doubt this is "the end of the road".
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Unread postby Leanan » Sun 11 Jul 2004, 21:46:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'K')eep in mind, we're just a baby of a country at 200 years old.


See DDHTF's post, on the first page of this thread.
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