Hey folks,
I saw you discussing my book and couldn’t help but join in. Good discussion, by the way, and lots of great points raised.
In terms of “when” the crisis is possibly going to strike, the short answer is “who knows.” It could be a long way off. It could be the year after next. A lot depends on Mother Nature. Consider what happened in 2006-8. A string of bad harvests brought global grain reserves down (that plus a policy of recommending African nations abandon their “strategic grain reserve”) and this, combined with financial speculation* and the bioenergy industry made prices shoot up. Food riots erupted across the world and the global grain markets were thrown into turmoil. But then we got lucky and the weather cooperated. The global harvest in 2008 was a world record, as was 2009. Grain stocks recovered and prices began to sink. But I shudder to think about what might have happened if the 2008 harvest had been bad. Things could have got ugly indeed.
The food system started to get interesting again about two months ago with the el Nino year hurting rice harvests in SE Asia and droughts in Russia and Asia hurting wheat harvests. Prices have again shot up but because we’ve had two good years we’ve got enough grain in the world’s silos that no one is really panicking.
The key lesson: storing food, while expensive is a really good idea!
I’m reminded of Sunday school and the story of Joseph and the Pharaoh who dreamed about 7 skinny cows eating 7 fat cows. Joseph interpreted this as a weather forecast – that there would be 7 good years and 7 bad years. Then Joseph made a policy recommendation: tax the agricultural sector during the good years, store the food, and then you’ll have the buffers to survive the lean times. I think we need to remember this lesson from the old testament and at household levels through to the international scale store more food.
Cheers folks!
Evan
PS: sorry for the self promotion but if anyone’s interested in following up these points, the link to my book’s amazon site is here:
http://www.amazon.com/Empires-Food-Feas ... 964&sr=1-1*see Fred Kaufmann’s recent article in Harpers on this.