...as an fyi, here's a slightly shorter version of my amazon.com review of the new book, Freedom from Oil...
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This is an important and timely book. David Sandalow is to be commended for writing a well-researched, non-partisan book that offers a candid assessment of our addiction to oil; the adverse consequences that flow from that addiction, and a realistic assessment of various policy options regarding liquid fuel substitutions that could, and should, be vigorously pursued by the next administration. The introduction of Freedom From Oil makes several important points by stating the following:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'â')€śFirst, oil is everywhere. Everyone reading this book will use oil-directly or indirectly-in the next day.
…Second, drivers have no substitutes for oil.
….Third, our political dialogue about oil is stuck in the 1970s, focusing on just one part of a larger problem.
….To become independent of foreign oil, we must become independent of oil. That doesn’t mean no oil in our vehicles. It means giving drivers a choice between oil and other fuels.
This conclusion is not radical. Experts across the political spectrum have been saying it, in different ways, for many years. But it has not permeated our political dialogue on the topic of oil.
Which leads to a forth insight: Ending oil dependence will require political leadership.
The changes required to end oil dependence are far-reaching. Lead times are long. Many current proposals are far too small. For the scope of change needed to solve this problem, presidential leadership is essential.” (pg. 4)
PeakOil is You
Book: "Freedom from Oil: by David Sandalow
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Book: "Freedom from Oil: by David Sandalow
by Petrodollar » Thu 04 Oct 2007, 15:00:20
Freedom from Oil then proceeds with a dozen of so memorandums from various cabinet-level members and top advisors, and the book also includes some interesting interviews from real-life individuals. The hypothetical format of the book is slightly unorthodox, but it is very effective given general theme of the book - what would happen if the next President made breaking the United States' addiction to oil a top priority?
In Part I of the book, Sandalow defines “The Problem” by writing a memorandum by a fictitious U.S. president who is requesting a holistic analysis of our oil addition problem. From there this president receives formal memorandums from experts who offer a range of perspectives (i.e., national security, enviroment, economic, etc). Sandalow repeatedly notes that that the U.S. consumes approximately 24% of the world’s oil production, yet has only 2% of the world’s reaming oil supply. In addition, he notes that 96% of our transportation fleet is utterly dependent on oil, and that there are virtually no substitutes currently available, at least in the short-term.
Part II of this book outlines possible “Solutions” to the oil addiction. This includes a candid analysis of the various policy and technology alternatives: Plug-In-Cars, Biofuels, Fuel Efficiency, Coal, Hydrogen, Smart Growth, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and Diplomatic Strategy. (Note: nuclear energy, photovoltaic/solar energy, and wind energy are not discussed in the text as they have effectively no impact on the transportation fleet in the short or immediate term).
Part II of the book is fairly comprehensive, but I do have a minor criticism regarding Biofuels. It is my perception that the author does not sufficiently explore the range of challenges involved with scaling-up U.S. liquid fuel production from ethanol and other biofuels beyond today’s 4% of the total fuel mix.
In other words, while production of various biofuels could be ramped up to perhaps one-third of our gasoline consumption within a few decades (assuming hundreds of billions of dollars were immediately diverted towards this goal), there are some complicated issues regarding the price of food produced domestically, not to mention the potential adverse impacts on world poverty. (The author briefly mentions the “tortilla riots” that occurred in Mexico during 2006 due to the increase price of corn, which in turn was/is an artifact of increased corn production being diverted to ethanol production, but he seems to downplay potential impacts to domestic/U.S. food prices).
Despite this issue, I applaud Sandalow for his balanced approach regarding the issues surrounding alternative transportation fuels from coal, coal-to-liquids, and his candid assessment of the much-hyped “hydrogen fuels.” (e,g., referring to the tremendous amount of raw energy required just to produce free hydrogen molecules, and the “astronomical costs” of converting our 169,000 gasoline stations and infrastructure for hydrogen transportation and storage)
Part III of this book is called “Decisions,” which offers several difficult yet realistic policy decision options for the next U.S. administration. These policies include significant changes in tax structure, mass transit funding, subsidies to the oil and gas industry, etc. Changes are required immediately. Let us hope that the current crop of politicians seeking the presidency in 2008 might actually debate the various energy policies suggested by Sandalow, as our addiction to oil is about to become a truly global crisis. Why?
Quite simply, the world oil production data over the past 2+ years increasingly suggests that we have entered a plateau in global oil production, which will ultimately be followed by an inexorable decline in global oil production. Many experts such as ASPO and the UK-based Oil Depletion Analysis Center suggest 2010 as the tipping point.
My major criticism of Sandalow’s book is that he does not even mention Peak Oil – despite this phenomenon (along with global climate change) being the “other inconvenient truth” as well as the primary driver of why we need to become “free from oil” – beginning now. (fyi: Despite the massive increase in the price of oil over the past couple of years, according to the EIA data as of September 2007, it appears that the global production peak in regular crude oil + condensate occurred in May 2005 at 74,298,000 barrels per day, and that the global “all liquids” peak occurred in July 2006 at 85,540,000 barrels per day.
Thus it now appears that we are now sitting on a plateau regarding global oil production, and that a slow, permanent decline is on the horizon). To be sure, Sandalow’s book is well researched, but it would have been more persuasive if he made some mention of the growing evidence that world oil production may be peaking. This issue should have been discussed in Freedom from Oil.
Despite this criticism, Sandalow correctly and effectively illustrates that the next several presidents will face difficult challenges that will require considerable leadership – not to mention sacrifice from the general citizenry. As Freedom from Oil makes clear, real presidential leadership is required in 2009 and beyond if we are to begin earnestly tackling the most difficult challenges that today’s generation faces – our addiction to oil, and the long-term challenges stemming from global climate change.
Summarizing, this book should be required reading for all American citizens - and especially those who are seeking to become the next President - as nothing is more important at this stage in human development than beginning the long and difficult journey to free ourselves from our disastrous addiction to oil.
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Petrodollar - Coal
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Re: "Freedom from Oil" by David Sandalow
by dinopello » Thu 04 Oct 2007, 16:27:22
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')o become independent of foreign oil, we must become independent of oil. That doesn’t mean no oil in our vehicles. It means giving drivers a choice between oil and other fuels.
If this is a main theme of his book, then he seems kind of clueless.
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Re: "Freedom from Oil" by David Sandalow
by americandream » Thu 04 Oct 2007, 16:52:57
I suppose telling folks that they will have to embrace a lifestyle of modest communal frugality does not sell books and therefore does not generate the sort of royalties that underwrites the good life of ease, affluence, success and adulation.
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Re: "Freedom from Oil" by David Sandalow
by JPL » Thu 04 Oct 2007, 17:58:51
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Petrodollar', 'T')hus it now appears that we are now sitting on a plateau regarding global oil production
I am not sure you can regard the current situation as a plateau. Simple intuition (as well as Geopolitics) suggest otherwise.
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Re: "Freedom from Oil" by David Sandalow
by manu » Fri 05 Oct 2007, 02:12:20
If any country really wants freedom from oil, then they had better start building bullock carts. Bulls and oxen are the transportation of the future.
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