[Quinne]

Have you guys read this little gem?

Link

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CNN', '"')Four to 8 years from now, we could come down and break $20 a barrel."

Beutel bases his prediction on the fact that oil is historically a cyclical commodity.

[Benzin]

I read it. Can't say I believe it. With huge demand destruction it may be possible to reach $20 a barrel but I doubt it.

[Resurrection]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CNN', '"')Four to 8 years from now, we could come down and break $20 a barrel."

Beutel bases his prediction on the fact that oil is historically a cyclical commodity.

[sameu]

waht's up with this cyclical nonsense
and that's exactly why economics is not a real science
always running behind the facts making up new 'laws' when someting doesn't seem to fit the current set of laws

[Fiddlerdave]

A fantasy puff piece for the stock market Plunge Protection Team, trying to prevent inflation by reducing expectations of inflation.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')If this market can continue going lower without OPEC disrupting it, it's very possible that by 2010 we could be substantially lower than anyone is imagining," said Peter Beutel,

[cat]

I think news articles rise and fall like the price of oil, when prices are up the more pestismistic articles come out, when they are down you get a lot more of the optimistic articles. What is funny is it seems that when oil drops a little and people start saying "oil will be at $20 soon," this is when in shoots back up. In reality, unless something changes drastically, oil is headed up with lots of ups and downs on the way.

[Niagara]

More spoon feeding to keep the masses spending.

"Martha, let's buy that SUV. $20 oil coming, they said so on the TV"

Baa-aaa-aaa-aaa

[jdmartin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')The government-run Energy Information Administration has a $50 target price for crude by 2015.

[frankthetank]

He does mention conservation. Maybe he thinks when the mortgage mess finally explodes, along with the dollar and then mass unemployment, we will have the conservation (given that no one will have money/home/food) will cause the price to come down to $20/barrel. Maybe he thinks nuclear war will break out or some plague that will kill off 80% of the population? Maybe he's just a fuckin retard? Maybe he gets paid to tell people what they want to hear?

I'm saving this one... Maybe i can catch up with this guy in 2015.

[WisJim]

I thought that this link was interesting: link
(A heading from the middle of the story)

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')If this market can continue going lower without OPEC disrupting it, it's very possible that by 2010 we could be substantially lower than anyone is imagining," said Peter Beutel, an oil analyst at the consultancy Cameron Hanover. "Four to 8 years from now, we could come down and break $20 a barrel."

[Twilight]

Demand destruction my ass.

$20? That would have to be one hell of a US recession.

Anything the US doesn't buy, the Asians will buy with all the dollars they have. Or US auto makers will start an SUV craze in the EU. And/or the Asian ones as well.

They might as well say "We could see $20 oil in four to eight years if the world suffers an economic cataclysm which makes daily foraging for food your highest priority."

[Ancien_Opus]

$20/barrel sure enough and that same $20 will likely get you an ounce of gold.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')eutel bases his prediction on the fact that oil is historically a cyclical commodity.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fiddlerdave', 'A') fantasy puff piece for the stock market Plunge Protection Team, trying to prevent inflation by reducing expectations of inflation.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eter Beutel, an oil analyst at the consultancy Cameron Hanover

[KCFrog]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eter Beutel, an oil analyst at the consultancy Cameron Hanover

[HorneyGeekBoi]

"They might as well say "We could see $20 oil in four to eight years if the world suffers an economic cataclysm which makes daily foraging for food your highest priority"

Hehe

[Jester]

"We're seeing a potential overbuilding of refining capacity."

That was the sentence that got my attention...


Now, excuse me if I'm wrong, but hasn't the tight supply been blamed on a lack of refining capacity? So how exactly, when nobody seems interested in building new refineries, do we get an excess of refining capacity within a couple of years?

Unless the oil supply goes down and there's not enough to keep all the refineries operating...