[johnmarkos]

I thought peak oil folks would enjoy this taxonomy of existential risks.
CLASS EFFECT
0 Regional Catastrophe (examples: moderate-case global warming, minor asteroid impact, local thermonuclear war)
Global civilization not eliminated, but regional civilizations effectively destroyed; millions to hundreds of millions dead, but large parts of humankind retain current social and technological conditions. Chance of humankind recovery: excellent. Species local to the catastrophe likely die off, and post-catastrophe effects (refugees, fallout, etc.) may kill more. Chance of biosphere recovery: excellent.
1 Human Die-Back (examples: extreme-case global warming, moderate asteroid impact, global thermonuclear war)
Global civilization set back to pre- or low-industrial conditions; several billion or more dead, but human species as a whole survives, in pockets of varying technological and social conditions. Chance of humankind recovery: moderate. Most non-human species on brink of extinction die off, but most other plant and animal species remain and, eventually, flourish. Chance of biosphere recovery: excellent.
2 Civilization Extinction (examples: worst-case global warming, significant asteroid impact, early-era molecular nanotech warfare)
Global civilization destroyed; millions (at most) remain alive, in isolated locations, with ongoing death rate likely exceeding birth rate. Chance of humankind recovery: slim. Many non-human species die off, but some remain and, over time, begin to expand and diverge. Chance of biosphere recovery: good.
3a Human Extinction-Engineered (examples: targeted nano-plague, engineered sterility absent radical life extension)
Global civilization destroyed; all humans dead. Conditions triggering this are human-specific, so other species are, for the most part, unaffected. Chance of humankind recovery: nil. Chance of biosphere recovery: excellent.
3b Human Extinction-Natural (examples: major asteroid impact, methane clathrates melt)
Global civilization destroyed; all humans dead. Conditions triggering this are general and global, so other species are greatly affected, as well. Chance of humankind recovery: nil. Chance of biosphere recovery: moderate.
4 Biosphere Extinction (examples: massive asteroid impact, "iceball Earth" reemergence, late-era molecular nanotech warfare)
Global civilization destroyed; all humans dead. Biosphere massively disrupted, with the wholesale elimination of many niches. Chance of humankind recovery: nil. Chance of biosphere recovery: slim. Chance of eventual re-emergence of organic life: good.
5 Planetary Extinction (examples: dwarf-planet-scale asteroid impact, nearby gamma-ray burst)
Global civilization destroyed; all humans dead. Biosphere effectively destroyed; all species extinct. Geophysical disruption sufficient to prevent or greatly hinder re-emergence of organic life.
X Planetary Elimination (example: post-Singularity beings disassemble planet to make computronium)
Global civilization destroyed; all humans dead. Ecosystem destroyed; all species extinct. Planet itself destroyed.

[Tanada]

Guess I am not the only optimist

[Bas]

We peak oilers aren't that bad if you look at it from "Eschatological Taxonomy"

[johnmarkos]

Wow, nobody voted higher than 2! That's pretty optimistic.

So I guess peakers mostly agree with Bruce Sterling on PO's place in the eschatological taxonomy.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bruce Sterling', 'p')eak oil would barely register as a "class zero."