[Newsseeker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')onclusion

By 2030 all three of the major fossil fuels that supply the vast majority of our energy needs will be in decline. Oil leads the way, with conventional oil already peaking in 2005, and nonconventional oil peaking by 2011 at the latest — possibly as early as 2007. Natural gas in North America is also currently in decline, as is coal in terms of energy production. World coal production will follow by 2025 at the latest. And world natural gas production will probably peak by 2030.

All three of these declines are likely to reinforce each other and complicate the difficulties of each. Major investments in LNG and coal-to-liquid production are unlikely to pay off and will only tie up funds that could have been used for other preparations. The same goes for biofuels, hydrogen fuel cells, and nuclear plants.

[Tyler_JC]

"We expect that when gasoline prices in the US reach $5/gallon and stay there for more than a month, the economy will unravel. At that price, people in the US will not be able to go to work or do their grocery shopping."

I have to fight that line.

At current prices, gasoline is less than 4% of the average household's budget.

At $5/gallon, it would be perhaps 8% of the average household's budget.

People would still be able to go to work, go grocery shopping, visit their aunt in Kansas, etc.

But if gasoline was not physically available at the local Mobil station, I don't care how much it costs, I'm still stuck at home.

We can handle higher gas prices, we can't handle physical shortages.

[emersonbiggins]

I, too, don't think $4 gas alone will be our undoing, but the burst of housing bubble/HELOC racket and easy credit expansion COMBINED with higher energy prices certainly has the potential to wreak havoc with the economy. In fact, it already is. And let us not forget that higher energy prices hit us not only at the pump, where the results are quite immediately explicit, but also affect the production of 100% of the other goods that we buy on a daily basis.

As the truckers like to spout, "without [us], America stops." It's true.

Also, how many GDP dollars created in the last 5 years had to do with constructing/expanding/selling/flipping real estate?

And how's that real estate market looking now?

There you go.

[cynicalheretic]

In order to break the country there would have to be shortages or $9.00 gas. This is a fact.

Of course at $5.00 gas, we are going to have a lot of pissed off people whining and bitching and then coming up to tell us about peak oil. Completely forgetting we told them this same information a hundred times before.

I am already running into a lot of people I told 3 years ago about peak oil, now bringing it up in conversations with me and pretending it is their idea and that they thought they would share their "brilliant insights" with me

[Plantagenet]

Gas has about doubled in price since 2005, and people have
adjusted pretty well. I think most Americans are now resigned to having to face higher energy costs in the future.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'G')as has about doubled in price since 2005, and people have adjusted pretty well.

[Plantagenet]

I don't doubt that large increases in energy prices and major economic dislocations may occur in the future. I just the think the ability of our economy and society to adjust to these is going to depend on whether they happen gradually, or if they happen suddenly.

The gradual increase in energy prices seen so far haven't been very disruptive in the U.S.