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"Running on Empty? Not yet."

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"Running on Empty? Not yet."

Unread postby jeezlouise » Fri 13 Apr 2007, 12:33:18

Occasionally I like to post bits of media that are so wrong, so far off base that they will make you want to throw your computer through the window. Here's one of the worst pieces of denialist rubbish I've come across in quite a while:

Investor's Business Daily

Check this out:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he peak oil theory was popularized by M. King Hubbert, a Shell Oil geophysicist who wrote a 1956 paper claiming U.S. oil production would peak by the early 1970s and then decline. He was right, but not in any meaningful way. Domestic production peaked, but at a level 13% higher than he predicted.

As for the drop that Hubbert projected due to depleted resources, it was short-lived. Production increased after a temporary dip.


I think I just threw up in my mouth a little.

This story was repeated at the National Center for Policy Analysis website. It references a Cato Institue "study" that isn't even really about PO (it is dismissed with the same old tired, worn-out arguments) so much as our foreign policy towards oil-producing countries.

I hate when I see garbage like this on some website and there's no comment section for people to respond. Anyway, good luck reading this stuff without breaking something.
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Re: "Running on Empty? Not yet."

Unread postby jeezlouise » Fri 13 Apr 2007, 12:46:52

I knew I should have checked to see if Leanan got to this one before me... it's not here but it's over at the Oildrum.
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Re: "Running on Empty? Not yet."

Unread postby jeezlouise » Fri 13 Apr 2007, 12:49:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', 'I') like it when they refer to the "Peak Oil Theory".

As if there was some other option available, exclusive of crazy abiotic theories.

It's really just math.

What the theory really is is the DATE, not the PEAK, which any fool can see must occur.


Yeah, that "theory" part badly needs to go. Kind of like how scientists have started calling global warming "climate change" because the layman just thinks about the planet heating up and then dismisses the whole thing when there's a cold snap. Language really is a virus.
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Re: "Running on Empty? Not yet."

Unread postby FairMaiden » Fri 13 Apr 2007, 13:02:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')...revealing the streak of catty narcissism that runs through many peak oil theorists.

I know there is lots we could say to rip this apart. But I had to point out that personal attacks and name calling is ALWAYS a dead give away that you have a very weak argument.
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Re: "Running on Empty? Not yet."

Unread postby Zardoz » Fri 13 Apr 2007, 13:09:38

We can only imagine how shrill and hysterical these hyenas will get when the refineries start running short of crude feedstock.
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: "Running on Empty? Not yet."

Unread postby vision-master » Fri 13 Apr 2007, 13:10:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jeezlouise', 'O')ccasionally I like to post bits of media that are so wrong, so far off base that they will make you want to throw your computer through the window. Here's one of the worst pieces of denialist rubbish I've come across in quite a while:

Investor's Business Daily

Check this out:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he peak oil theory was popularized by M. King Hubbert, a Shell Oil geophysicist who wrote a 1956 paper claiming U.S. oil production would peak by the early 1970s and then decline. He was right, but not in any meaningful way. Domestic production peaked, but at a level 13% higher than he predicted.

As for the drop that Hubbert projected due to depleted resources, it was short-lived. Production increased after a temporary dip.


I think I just threw up in my mouth a little.

This story was repeated at the National Center for Policy Analysis website. It references a Cato Institue "study" that isn't even really about PO (it is dismissed with the same old tired, worn-out arguments) so much as our foreign policy towards oil-producing countries.

I hate when I see garbage like this on some website and there's no comment section for people to respond. Anyway, good luck reading this stuff without breaking something.


Yeah, he forgot to look into his crystal ball, aka the North Slope in Alaska. That's where (Domestic production peaked, but at a level 13% higher than he predicted) comes from. :twisted:
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Re: "Running on Empty? Not yet."

Unread postby killJOY » Fri 13 Apr 2007, 14:12:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s for the drop that Hubbert projected due to depleted resources, it was short-lived. Production increased after a temporary dip.


You'll notice the writer just LIED.

He lied through his very mouth.

You know, and I know, and you know that I know, and I know that you know, that the US is producing only 50% of what it was producing in 1972.

The US will NEVER, EVER produce 10 million barrels a day.

That production increase the writer refers to is Alaska, which temporarily stilled the decline.

Before I say this, remember that thoughts and wishes and prayers have NO POWER. I say it because it feels good:

I HOPE THAT WRITER SUFFERS FOR HIS LIE.
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Re: "Running on Empty? Not yet."

Unread postby gt1370a » Fri 13 Apr 2007, 14:23:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s for the drop that Hubbert projected due to depleted resources, it was short-lived. Production increased after a temporary dip.


You'll notice the writer just LIED.


I honestly wonder if they didn't look at a plot of CONSUMPTION and confuse it with production? (ignoring imports?) Consumption dipped during the OPEC embargoes and then went up again... otherwise there is absolutely no logical explanation in the world for how anyone could think US production "increased after a temporary dip."

Given that, the credibility of anything else said in the article is totally shot. I noticed also how Deffeyes is simply described as the author of some book, not a Princeton geology professor. On the other hand, the CATO study is portrayed as being ultimately authoritative and putting the whole issue to rest. What a freaking joke that whole article is.
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Re: "Running on Empty? Not yet."

Unread postby pup55 » Fri 13 Apr 2007, 14:57:05

letters@IBDeditorials.com

Feel free to direct your ire at the source: the head cheerleader that runs the editorial department, at the above email address.
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Re: "Running on Empty? Not yet."

Unread postby cube » Fri 13 Apr 2007, 15:35:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'W')e can only imagine how shrill and hysterical these hyenas will get when the refineries start running short of crude feedstock.
Or maybe when the oil majors stop building new refineries......because what's the point in adding another plant with a 30 year service life when PO might be 10 years away, unless you only wish to replace an existing aging plant that will be shut down.

I may be wrong because I don't have any statistics on me but it honestly wouldn't surprise me if there are only a dirty dozen new oil refineries under construction on the entire planet right now.

If anyone has any stats please show it!

my 2 cents
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Re: "Running on Empty? Not yet."

Unread postby jeezlouise » Fri 13 Apr 2007, 15:39:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'l')etters@IBDeditorials.com

Feel free to direct your ire at the source: the head cheerleader that runs the editorial department, at the above email address.


Aha, thanx. Someone's about to get quite an earful.

Articles like this are, IMHO, not only offensive to my personal sensibilities but downright dangerous to the public at large.
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Re: "Running on Empty? Not yet."

Unread postby simontay78 » Fri 13 Apr 2007, 16:11:21

This article is trying to calm the market down...and may had already succeed.

I like to send a proper email to the editor in chief but not sure how to make it a readable one.... there might be too much fear, anger, anguish, dark humor and dread to be comprehensible...

Starting like...

Dear Sir,

Regarding the article titled "Running On Empty? Not Yet" dated 4/12/2007

Peak oil is not a fear mongering theory to eliminate growth but a wake up call to mitigate into alternative fuel and lifestyle in order to survive without conflict and war.

The article pointed out that peak oil may not be immediate but 10 years away but do we have to wait until it is officially declared to prepare for alternative lifestyle and alternative transportation methods? The unfortunate event of higher cost of living due to high oil prices will render any countries economies into a stand still without proper preparation to mitigate into the future.

The ill informed population that your article targeted will suffer the consequences for not preparing for peak oil or investing incorrectly.

The facts are already there for all to see, depletion of oil fields around the world had been reported all over other news agencies and yet your article titled "Running On Empty? Not Yet" dated 4/12/2007 clearly dismissing the importance of conservation of fossil fuel....

OIL are used in almost all our daily lives, majority of it is transportation of goods thousands of miles around the world and as a fuel for vehicles. Unknown to some, oil are use directly or indirectly in almost EVERYTHING in our lives from your plastic cover of your food, bags, toilet cover, cups, photo frames, toys, bottles, fan blades, computer, spectacles, earphones, hand phone, polyester clothings, paints, lubricants, kerosene, PVC, tar roads, petrochemical, pharmaceutical...Agriculture used oil as pesticides and natural gas as fertilizers, machinery to plough, seed, water, harvest, pack, process the crops, transport thousands of miles to your plates.

Without cheap oil, Earth might not be able to sustain our current population and implode with huge natural or man-made demand destructions!

Natural Demand destructions are disasters such as volcano eruptions, earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, heat waves, tsunami, plague, drought, forest fire, famine and others naturally occurring disasters!

Man-made disasters are wars, bio and chemical weapons, terrorism, civil wars, nuclear war and other man made disasters that make demand destruction!

We can prevent most of these man-made disasters by curbing our addiction to fossil fuels and conserve what is remaining for more essential usage for life sustaining like food productions instead of ethanol or biofuel creation. Transportation of essential food and services to cities is vital for any cities sustainability...not necessary for SUV that have lower mileage.

The realization by your article states that peak oil will began in 10 years time should put some fear into many as MANY people do not and will not trade their cars in for some untested vehicle using expensive technology which is currently not cost effective at all...

this resistance to change might hinder the full migration to alternative fuel by about 20 years or more!! (Think China fleet of cars!)

Oil prices may be affected by political tensions, OPEC production cuts and terrorism in oil producing countries on their oil fields...but the key concern for the world is if the oil supply able to meet the growing demand now...and into the future!

Alternative unconventional oil or fuel are currently extremely expensive comparing to crude oil...so oil price will be set high by "countries" in order for their feasibility for extraction from oil sands, oil shale, deep sea drilling, biofuel and other new technologies to surface.

If oil from majority of major oil producing countries starts to deplete such as Mexico, Iraq, USA, China, Indonesia, North Sea...possibly Saudi Arabia can signal the peak in global oil production and soon the global oil production may not able to meet the global demand anymore...once the declines starts.

So, by writing article such as "Running On Empty? Not Yet" does not help humanity much in the near future and might cause great suffering for them....as they head into the cliff blind folded by your denial....

Warmest Regards,
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Re: "Running on Empty? Not yet."

Unread postby mekrob » Fri 13 Apr 2007, 16:21:10

I just absolutely love it when people refer to things as "theories" in a pathetic attempt to degrade the theory. It's simply amazing how they always make sure to point out that GW, evolution, PO, etc are just 'theories'. Do these people realize that gravity is still just a theory?! Light is still just a theory (I believe). There are plenty of other 'just theories' that are all around us.

A theory is simply something that cannot be fully explained and predicted for future events. It's not some supposition made up by hacks in their basement under a tin-foil hat. Every time these dumbasses refer to such phenomena that they want to disprove as 'theories', all they are doing is helping to reaffirm the position as a theory. So yes, GW, PO, and evolution are all 'just theories' and that's all they all will ever be since we, humans with limited knowledge of the world, will never be able to fully understand the world around us, no matter how much we try or how big the computers are that we invent.
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Re: "Running on Empty? Not yet."

Unread postby Aaron » Fri 13 Apr 2007, 17:15:32

KATO itself predicts a peak... just later.
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Re: "Running on Empty? Not yet."

Unread postby joewp » Fri 13 Apr 2007, 19:37:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', 'I') just absolutely love it when people refer to things as "theories" in a pathetic attempt to degrade the theory.


Actually, all they have to do is pick up a damn dictionary once in a while:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')the·o·ry n., pl. -ries.

1. A set of statements or principles devised to explain a group of facts or phenomena, especially one that has been repeatedly tested or is widely accepted and can be used to make predictions about natural phenomena.
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Re: "Running on Empty? Not yet."

Unread postby Newsseeker » Mon 16 Apr 2007, 09:22:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', 'I') like it when they refer to the "Peak Oil Theory".

As if there was some other option available, exclusive of crazy abiotic theories.

It's really just math.

What the theory really is is the DATE, not the PEAK, which any fool can see must occur.


It is also the decline. It can be said that we peaked in May and December of 2005 and since then have been in decline but that decline has been marginal. Depending on the level of doom the decline rates range from single to double digits and would have varying effects upon the world economy and civilization.
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