Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

PhD Thesis on PeakOil

A forum to either submit your own review of a book, video or audio interview, or to post reviews by others.

PhD Thesis on PeakOil

Unread postby MacG » Wed 28 Mar 2007, 09:39:18

This is not really a review, rather an announcement. One of Kjell Aleklett's students, Fredrik Robelius, has written a PhD thesis about PeakOil which he is going to defend this Friday. Opponent is the famous Dr Robert Hirsch from SAIC.

The announcement is here and the fulltext thesis (in English) is here.
User avatar
MacG
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1137
Joined: Sat 04 Jun 2005, 03:00:00

Re: PhD Thesis on PeakOil

Unread postby MattSavinar » Wed 28 Mar 2007, 09:45:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', 'T')his is not really a review, rather an announcement. One of Kjell Aleklett's students, Fredrik Robelius, has written a PhD thesis about PeakOil which he is going to defend this Friday. Opponent is the famous Dr Robert Hirsch from SAIC.

The announcement is here and the fulltext thesis (in English) is here.


Do I need to explain why anybody who learns about PO, then chooses to do a PHD thesis on it so clearly does not understand the real implications?

I'm consistenly amazed the degree to which really smart people exhibit this sort of jackassery.
User avatar
MattSavinar
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 1918
Joined: Sun 09 May 2004, 03:00:00

Re: PhD Thesis on PeakOil

Unread postby MacG » Wed 28 Mar 2007, 10:14:48

"DP" means "Double Post" and nothing else.
Last edited by MacG on Wed 28 Mar 2007, 10:17:19, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
MacG
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1137
Joined: Sat 04 Jun 2005, 03:00:00

Re: PhD Thesis on PeakOil

Unread postby MacG » Wed 28 Mar 2007, 10:15:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'D')o I need to explain why anybody who learns about PO, then chooses to do a PHD thesis on it so clearly does not understand the real implications?


Actually, I think that they DO understand, on an intiutive level. And it scares the living daylights out of them. Thus they prefer to avoid thinking about consequences.

On a sidenote, I'm not fully convinced that the paper has what it takes to be a PhD thesis at all.
User avatar
MacG
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1137
Joined: Sat 04 Jun 2005, 03:00:00

Re: PhD Thesis on PeakOil

Unread postby MattSavinar » Wed 28 Mar 2007, 10:23:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'D')o I need to explain why anybody who learns about PO, then chooses to do a PHD thesis on it so clearly does not understand the real implications?


Actually, I think that they DO understand, on an intiutive level. And it scares the living daylights out of them. Thus they prefer to avoid thinking about consequences.
all.


Yep.

"Oh my effin God, I"m screwed . .. .what should I do? move to a farmlet and get my hands dirty? Oh snap, hell no. I'm gonna do a phd thesis on it."
User avatar
MattSavinar
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 1918
Joined: Sun 09 May 2004, 03:00:00

Re: PhD Thesis on PeakOil

Unread postby MacG » Wed 28 Mar 2007, 11:07:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '"')Oh my effin God, I"m screwed . .. .what should I do? move to a farmlet and get my hands dirty?"


Dont forget: "Find innovative ways for corteous and polite social interaction with pissed, newly poor and disoriented fellow humans?"
User avatar
MacG
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1137
Joined: Sat 04 Jun 2005, 03:00:00
Top

Re: PhD Thesis on PeakOil

Unread postby Bas » Wed 28 Mar 2007, 11:15:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', 'T')his is not really a review, rather an announcement. One of Kjell Aleklett's students, Fredrik Robelius, has written a PhD thesis about PeakOil which he is going to defend this Friday. Opponent is the famous Dr Robert Hirsch from SAIC.

The announcement is here and the fulltext thesis (in English) is here.


Do I need to explain why anybody who learns about PO, then chooses to do a PHD thesis on it so clearly does not understand the real implications?

I'm consistenly amazed the degree to which really smart people exhibit this sort of jackassery.


I respectfully disagree; eventhough we know alot about the possible implications, which ofcourse are very dire indeed, nobody can foresee the exact future and oversee all the variables that will lead to it.
Bas
 
Top

Re: PhD Thesis on PeakOil

Unread postby bantri » Wed 28 Mar 2007, 12:08:27

i´ve tried a search on keywords like eroei, eroi, energy return and found nothing... strange...

IMO i think it is very important to mention eroei in a thesis.

also on the modelling graph the final tail angle points horizontal, with a remark to a point called "economic limit".

IMO it should point DOWN with a point called "energetic limit" if it´s possible to consider eroei influence on production graphs...

hope it helps :)
User avatar
bantri
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 43
Joined: Thu 24 Feb 2005, 04:00:00

Re: PhD Thesis on PeakOil

Unread postby MacG » Wed 28 Mar 2007, 17:49:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bantri', 'i')´ve tried a search on keywords like eroei, eroi, energy return and found nothing... strange...

IMO i think it is very important to mention eroei in a thesis.

also on the modelling graph the final tail angle points horizontal, with a remark to a point called "economic limit".

IMO it should point DOWN with a point called "energetic limit" if it´s possible to consider eroei influence on production graphs...

hope it helps :)


Hehe. Try searching for "Hirsch". Maybe my Acrobat reader is broken, since I got zero returns. Not even a friggin' reference. This "thesis" looks more and more like some piece of intellectual masturbation around the exact date of The Peak. Quite worthless. Guess that the author is pretty clueless and that he was prodded by Kjell all the way.
User avatar
MacG
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1137
Joined: Sat 04 Jun 2005, 03:00:00
Top

Re: PhD Thesis on PeakOil

Unread postby dbruning » Wed 28 Mar 2007, 18:09:41

What would the affect be if he presents his thesis and his opponent were to absolutely destroy him?

Could this be used to debunk the PO position?

"Next, we have a story about a conspiracy theorist who believes Oil in running out. As you will see, he's soundly proven wrong by one of the leading experts. Nothing to see here. Janice has the story...."
User avatar
dbruning
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 486
Joined: Wed 13 Sep 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Vancouver Island

Re: PhD Thesis on PeakOil

Unread postby MacG » Wed 28 Mar 2007, 18:16:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dbruning', 'W')hat would the affect be if he presents his thesis and his opponent were to absolutely destroy him?

Could this be used to debunk the PO position?

"Next, we have a story about a conspiracy theorist who believes Oil in running out. As you will see, he's soundly proven wrong by one of the leading experts. Nothing to see here. Janice has the story...."


Eh, don't worry. This thesis will pass but it wont be mentioned anywhere. Have you not learned that it's RUDE to talk about PeakOil. If someone is rude, the PC social code prescribe that he/she should just be ignored. "If we just avoid talking about it, it will go away by itself". Worked fine for quite some while.
User avatar
MacG
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1137
Joined: Sat 04 Jun 2005, 03:00:00
Top

Re: PhD Thesis on PeakOil

Unread postby MattSavinar » Wed 28 Mar 2007, 19:53:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', 'T')his is not really a review, rather an announcement. One of Kjell Aleklett's students, Fredrik Robelius, has written a PhD thesis about PeakOil which he is going to defend this Friday. Opponent is the famous Dr Robert Hirsch from SAIC.

The announcement is here and the fulltext thesis (in English) is here.


Do I need to explain why anybody who learns about PO, then chooses to do a PHD thesis on it so clearly does not understand the real implications?

I'm consistenly amazed the degree to which really smart people exhibit this sort of jackassery.


I respectfully disagree; eventhough we know alot about the possible implications, which ofcourse are very dire indeed, nobody can foresee the exact future and oversee all the variables that will lead to it.


I bet it will lead to a war in the Middle East and that's just for starters.
http://www.peakoil.org
User avatar
MattSavinar
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 1918
Joined: Sun 09 May 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: PhD Thesis on PeakOil

Unread postby Navono » Wed 28 Mar 2007, 20:22:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', 'T')his is not really a review, rather an announcement. One of Kjell Aleklett's students, Fredrik Robelius, has written a PhD thesis about PeakOil which he is going to defend this Friday. Opponent is the famous Dr Robert Hirsch from SAIC.

The announcement is here and the fulltext thesis (in English) is here.


Do I need to explain why anybody who learns about PO, then chooses to do a PHD thesis on it so clearly does not understand the real implications?

I'm consistenly amazed the degree to which really smart people exhibit this sort of jackassery.


I respectfully disagree; eventhough we know alot about the possible implications, which ofcourse are very dire indeed, nobody can foresee the exact future and oversee all the variables that will lead to it.


I bet it will lead to a war in the Middle East and that's just for starters.


Didn't it already?
User avatar
Navono
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 7
Joined: Wed 28 Mar 2007, 03:00:00
Top

Re: PhD Thesis on PeakOil

Unread postby Aaron » Wed 28 Mar 2007, 21:21:24

Peak Oil isn't in question per se... only when it will happen is in dispute.

Only the Abiotic oil from Tesla's frozen head folks think peak oil won't ever happen.

Even CERA & the USGS acknowledge that peak will happen.

They just disagree on how soon it will arive.

Since the difference between ASPO peak prediction around 2010 & USGS peak prediction of around 2030 is mostly based on OPEC's 1980's paper barrels, it all hinges on if the paper barrels are really in place or not.

But nobody credible thinks peak oil will never happen.
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

Hazel Henderson
User avatar
Aaron
Resting in Peace
 
Posts: 5998
Joined: Thu 15 Apr 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Houston

Re: PhD Thesis on PeakOil

Unread postby pup55 » Wed 28 Mar 2007, 22:25:59

Hello, MacG:

I have a couple of questions about the process:

When the thesis is "defended" is he or she expected to be able to explain and/or back up "all" of the statements he or she makes in there, or "most" or "some". What is the standard for "defense?"

Is this done verbally in some sort of public setting? If so, how long is this expected to last?

Secondly, why Hirsch? Can others, such as the lowly forum dwellers over here, join in the fun?

Thirdly, is this supposed to be an "original contribution to knowledge?" I think in the US, this is the standard for the PhD thesis, although someone will have to correct me if this is wrong.

Fourthly, will Hirsch take the position that the peak is not predictable based on the behavior of the giant fields, or that the peak will occur later or earlier than the author suggests? Or, is not knowing exactly what position Hirsch is going to take part of the fun?

Finally, the judging: Who decides whether the work is sufficiently "defended" and what are the standards?

Hope you do not mind a few nosy questions. I would be interested to hear more about this process.
User avatar
pup55
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5249
Joined: Wed 26 May 2004, 03:00:00

Re: PhD Thesis on PeakOil

Unread postby MacG » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 03:41:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'P')eak Oil isn't in question per se... only when it will happen is in dispute.

Only the Abiotic oil from Tesla's frozen head folks think peak oil won't ever happen.

Even CERA & the USGS acknowledge that peak will happen.

They just disagree on how soon it will arive.

Since the difference between ASPO peak prediction around 2010 & USGS peak prediction of around 2030 is mostly based on OPEC's 1980's paper barrels, it all hinges on if the paper barrels are really in place or not.

But nobody credible thinks peak oil will never happen.


It's nothing short of amazing how many people there are who refuse to accept this simple fact. The trick they do is not to deny the fact that oil is a limited resource, they just refuse to discuss the thing in it's entirety.
User avatar
MacG
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1137
Joined: Sat 04 Jun 2005, 03:00:00
Top

Re: PhD Thesis on PeakOil

Unread postby MacG » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 03:59:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'H')ello, MacG:

I have a couple of questions about the process:

When the thesis is "defended" is he or she expected to be able to explain and/or back up "all" of the statements he or she makes in there, or "most" or "some". What is the standard for "defense?"

Is this done verbally in some sort of public setting? If so, how long is this expected to last?

Secondly, why Hirsch? Can others, such as the lowly forum dwellers over here, join in the fun?

Thirdly, is this supposed to be an "original contribution to knowledge?" I think in the US, this is the standard for the PhD thesis, although someone will have to correct me if this is wrong.

Fourthly, will Hirsch take the position that the peak is not predictable based on the behavior of the giant fields, or that the peak will occur later or earlier than the author suggests? Or, is not knowing exactly what position Hirsch is going to take part of the fun?

Finally, the judging: Who decides whether the work is sufficiently "defended" and what are the standards?

Hope you do not mind a few nosy questions. I would be interested to hear more about this process.


Formally there is an opponent and a committy of either three or five members. There is a public hearing where everyone is allowed entry. The opponent is supposed to provide general challenges to the defendants scientific litteracy and ability to apply scientific reasoning to problems, in addition to questioning the thesis. The entire process take something like 2-3 hours. Afterwards, the committy take a vote on pass/fail.

Informally, the thesis is in reality supposed to be some kind of proof that the defendant is a worthy member of the scientific community. The process has it's origins in the medieval church.

Copies of the thesis are distributed 3-5 weeks in advance of the dissertation, and if the opponent or any member of the committy think that the thesis is not up to the marks, they are supposed to tell that (discretly) well in advance. It give you fat loads of bad Karma to just vote "fail" without telling that in advance.
User avatar
MacG
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1137
Joined: Sat 04 Jun 2005, 03:00:00
Top


Return to Book/Media Reviews

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests

cron