[JLK]

[url=http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0691116253/qid=1078542412//ref=sr_8_xs_ap_i1_xgl14/104-5143656-3793526?v=glance&s=books&n=507846]Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage
by Kenneth Deffeyes[/url]

Kenneth Deffeyes has an engaging entertaining syle and is a gifted teacher. A professor emeritus of geology at Princeton, he was born to an oil family in Oklahoma and worked at Shell during the glory days of M. King Hubbert. This is an oil man, and a top level academic thinker.

I earnestly recommend that you read this book if you are interested in energy issues. If you complete the book and understand the details (no small task in some of the chapters), you will have a high level of understanding of the salient details of oil and natural gas exploration, recovery and refining. You will know why major deep ocean oil deposits are extremely unlikely. You will know what a source rock is, and how it must be positioned at the appropriate depth range in the earth to make oil; drilling deeper is not going to help us. In short, you will feel like you have completed a postgraduate course in petroleum geology. For $12 for the paperback version, it's quite a deal.

The book deals in hard facts; it has no discernable ideological bent. But is does makes a compelling case that global oil production will peak sometime between 2003 and 2009, and that society will be in for a resulting shock. If you are a doubter, take my challenge and read this book.

[Leanan]

I recently read this book. I think Dr. Deffeyes' students were very lucky to have him for a teacher. He's got a great style, full of humor and easy to read, but not at all condescending. He covers some very tough material in this book. Everything you ever wanted to know about petroleum geology but were afraid to ask. If you're wondering how we know there's not more oil out there somewhere, if only we drill deeper...read this book, and you'll find out.

The main problem I had with this book is its overly optimistic view of the post-peak world. Maybe he didn't want to scare people too much; people are more likely to believe you if you don't make them too uncomfortable. But he seems to think that we'll have a tough ten years, then everything will be back to normal, with the world running off some alternate energy source.

As a balance, I recommend David Goodstein's Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil. Goodstein is a physicist, not a geologist, and he approaches the problem from a thermodynamics stance, and shows that there is no replacement for oil. Nuclear, in his view, is best, but even it can't replace oil.

As for Deffeyes...if anyone is wondering how an oilman ended up a Princeton professor...he believed M. King Hubbert. He was afraid the peak would come before he was of retirement age, so he switched careers.

[k_semler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JLK', '
')The book deals in hard facts; it has no discernible ideological bent. But is does makes a compelling case that global oil production will peak sometime between 2003 and 2009, and that society will be in for a resulting shock. If you are a doubter, take my challenge and read this book.

[Whitecrab]

I have yet to read the book (although it is at the top of my Christmas list). However, this article may be of interest, as a little side note on what Vanderbilt University is doing:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://www.energybulletin.net/3435.html]US: New class offers chance to face energy challenges[/url]

This spring, students will have a chance to learn about the looming challenges of energy and the environment for the new century.

Humanities 161, an interdisciplinary course aimed at engaging students in selected current events, covers various topics from year to year. For the spring 2005 semester, Professors David Jon Furbish and Jonathan Gilligan, and at least one additional, but not yet unidentified, faculty member will be leading "New Global Crisis: Earth's Energy and Water Resources in the 21st Century," open to all undergraduate students.

...

"We are beginning to pull together the reading list. One book we definitely will be reading is Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage by Kenneth Deffeyes." Furbish said.

M. King Hubbert predicted the U.S.'s peak oil production in the 1970's. Deffeyes took

Hubbert's methods, applied them globally, and found that the world is currently at its peak oil production.

"Naturally, this is very controversial," Furbish said.

[clv101]

This was the first Peak Oil book I read. I am a trained scientist and work in electrical engineering. Facts and logical arguments are vital for me to accept a theory. Whilst I have been aware ever since I can remember that oil is a finite resource and likely to become less plentiful in the future I was not aware of just how serious the situation was.

Deffeyes presents the idea of Peak Oil from first principles. He explains what oil is, what an oil field is, how it came to be there and importantly, how we found the field and extract the oil from it. The language used is excellent with enough humour and stories to keep what could be a very dry subject lively.

Once the above is covered it becomes clear how the rate of extraction form a single oil field must follow the famous bell curve with the area under the curve representing the field’s endowment. Summation of the bell curves for all fields in the world goes on the produce a single large bell curve, the area under it now representing the planets total oil endowment. Peak oil extraction occurs once approximately half the original endowment is used - around about now then!

It also becomes clear that new discoveries and technology improvements are unlikely to be significant.

Deffeyes writes with great authority. He has been working as a geologist both for the oil industry and latter in academia his entire life.

The book is focused on oil and oil extraction and nothing else. It does not address any economic, sociological or political implications of Peak Oil.

I’d recommend this book to anyone who desires a logical, technical explanation of why less oil will be available in the near future than now. That single point is covered extremely well, making this book a fantastic introduction to Peak Oil.

[stu]

Having read this book I have to agree with the above review and say that it offers the best technical explanation of the process of oil extraction and production.

Because Deffeyes is an expert geologist and Princeton lecturer you have to prepare yourself for a very in-depth scientific study of oil. If, like myself, you failed at science then you will find this book a struggle to begin with but a bit easier to grasp as you go further in.

Deffeyes starts off by describing what oil is and how it got there before going on to offer an insight into how oil fields are discovered and how drilling works. Though using terms that I found hard to follow he does simplify it with the use of metaphors.

This book does not focus on Peak Oil as a whole but instead looks at Hubberts theory and analyses how it was created.

Well worth a read but only recommended for people who can easily digest technical language.

Rating=***

[EnviroEngr]

MicroHydro
Joined: Apr 10, 2005
Posts: 20

... posted this review:

"I have purchased the book and just read it. This is a work narrowly focused on energy geology with only minimal discussion of possible social, economic, and geopolitical consequences. This is not a criticism, it is a very good petroleum geology book for the lay reader with a nice historical perspective. Technical issues in exploration and secondary recovery are well addressed. Thomas Gold's abiotic hypothesis is very well debunked. Being academic in tone, it is neither optimistic or pessimistic.

Kenneth Deffeyes is also old enough that he is not likely to personally experience the worst ravages of the post peak oil world. In contrast, young lawyer and blogger Matt Savinar views his entire future prospects as defined by peak oil. Savinar's analysis of some non-petroleum energy issues is more intensely focused on survival and may be more accurate than Deffeyes'. For example, Deffeyes takes an almost cornucopian view of uranium resources by pointing out a vast quantity of very low grade ores exists. Savinar on the other hand, states that mining low grade uranium ores has a negative EROI. In other words, such mining activities might be useful for aspiring bomb makers, but do not constitute an energy resource. My gut feeling is that Savinar is right and Deffeyes simply neglected to consider the energy cost of uranium mining.

Deffeyes' new book is a worthwhile addition to one's library, but far from a complete review of post peak issues."

[Revi]

I just finished the book, and I would say the most useful fact was that according to Deffeyes the peak is on Thanksgiving of this year. He even says he may be a month or so off, but Hubbert's technique points to this year. It's pretty convincing. It seems like recent events are telling as well. The Saudis just said they can't increase production anytime soon, so maybe this is it! Deffeyes is very entertaining, even though he loses me once in a while. I found it to be a very worthwhile read.

[JLK]

I like Deffeye's writing style and I read the book, but I have to wonder whether his Thanksgiving 2005 prediction is somewhat tongue-in-cheek. The best evidence right now seems to point to a peak in 2007 or 2008.

[ohanian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JLK', 'I') like Deffeye's writing style and I read the book, but I have to wonder whether his Thanksgiving 2005 prediction is somewhat tongue-in-cheek. The best evidence right now seems to point to a peak in 2007 or 2008.

[I_Like_Plants]

I guess this is Deffeye's first book, and it's a great read! You learn much of the history of the oil biz, and the technology. It's interesting to read how Hughes and Halliburton and Schlumberger got their start, and to admire their contributions. You learn that the oil biz is very scientific and now the seat-of-their-pants yahoo "drill where Daddy's t'bacco chaw landed" guesswork it's sometimes made out to be. Deffeyes knew Hubbert personally, as a friend, and grew up in the oil business, and seems to know what he's talking about. Fascinating book, and well worth reading!

Interestingly, this was publised in 2001 which means it was probably finished in 2000, so it was written before the dot-com economic meltdown and of course 9-11.

My local library had it, and two of Heinberg's books, shows how well the peak oil problem is known by the masses. The latest novels have waiting lists 5 deep there I'm sure.

I'd definately add this to the "Peak Oil Library" and it's worth it for the geology education alone.

[Geology_Guy]

I agree. Deffeye is a good guy.

[peaker_2005]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohanian', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JLK', 'I') like Deffeye's writing style and I read the book, but I have to wonder whether his Thanksgiving 2005 prediction is somewhat tongue-in-cheek. The best evidence right now seems to point to a peak in 2007 or 2008.

[clv101]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peaker_2005', 'W')hile I agree with Deffeyes on a lot of things, I'm not sure I agree on the date of the peak. I do agree, however, that Thanksgiving may be the start of our troubles (not necessarily the peak), and I also agree to his assessment that it would be a good day to try and change the focus.

[rkerver]

What About Deffeyes’ Prediction That Oil Will Peak In 2005?
Middle East Economic Survey, VOL. XLVIII No 37, 12-September-2005
By Rafael Sandrea, Link here

Rafael Sandrea is President and CEO of ITS Servicios Tecnicos, a Caracas-based engineering company. He holds a PhD in petroleum engineering from Penn State University and has written more than 30 technical publications, including the book, Dynamics of Petroleum Reservoirs under Gas Injection, Gulf Publishing, 1974.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')color=darkblue]The logistic decline model commonly known as the Hubbert model, has been shown to be a reliable tool for predicting reserves in individual and conglomerates of oil fields. The latter would represent the case of producing countries and oil regions. Decline curve models have served the oil industry well since the 1940s in the appraisal of oil wells and reservoirs. They do not derive from physical laws as such, but neither are they simple econometric models. Their success lies in the application of a good engineering/geologic analysis of the data to determine key issues such as the onset of steady state conditions, identification of outliers (output disruptions and the like) in the data points, and operational changes (discoveries and new fluid injection projects) that may affect the trend line. In the case of the logistic model the trend of interest is a simple straight line. This model utilizes exclusively production behavior to estimate reserves. These estimates are, therefore, by definition, proven reserves and do not include yet-to-find reserves. The latter have to be established by other techniques.

Deffeyes’ decline prediction of an ultimate recovery of the world’s conventional crude oil supplies to be 2,000bn barrels and peaking in the year 2005 appears to be on track. Peak production occurs at the half-life of the ultimate reserves or 1,000bn barrels. At current production rates, the world would reach this threshold about mid-2006. The world’s remaining reserves of roughly 1,000bn barrels of crude oil have a duration of 40 years at current production rates. The world is also known to have substantial unconventional extra-heavy crude oil and bitumen resources. Canada and Venezuela possess approximately 3,000bn barrels and Russia, 1,400bn barrels. Other significant heavy oil resources are also found in the US (200bn barrels), Kazakhstan (80bn barrels) and Madagascar (20bn barrels).

Finally, we have a fairly good grasp of the remaining oil inventories. Now is the time to focus not only on developing alternative sources of energy but also on making prudent use of the existing reserves.
[/color]

[Barlow]

I recently heard Prof Deffeyes speak at Congressman's Bartlett's Sept Conference on Peak Oil. In addition, I have been listening to John McPhee audio books about the geology of the US. Deffeyes is one of the featured geologists. So this book was a great compliment. It's like I've done the grand Deffeyes Tour.

Although I was already well versed on peak oil, I found the book delightful and an easy read. It is a very good starter book about Peak Oil. Straight forward. Easy to understand. Explanations about all sorts of geological things and mineral extraction processes, including pros and cons of each process without much of the doom and gloom in other books.

The book has a fair dose of dry humor which really makes it a pleasure. Prof Deffeyes was the "warm up" act for Bartlett's conference and for good reason. He started the conference off with some statement like "There's a conservative congressman (Bartlett), an Ivy League professor (Deffeyes), an investment banker (Simmons), and social liberal professor from California (Heinburg) up here. And we are all have the same message, so you better believe it's the truth." Great opening line. Imagine taking a class with him.

[edit: Thanks to EnvironEng for moving this post. I had errandly put in under Deffeyes first book.]

After scanning these posts, I'd say way too much is made from Deffeyes Thanksgiving 2005 peak oil prediction. Of course, it was tongue-in-cheek, it clearly was at his talk. "Thanksgiving. Plus or minus six weeks." We all know the US peak wasn't confirmed until after the fact. I still read conflicts about wheter it was 1970 or 1971. My god, he's a geologist. They think is time frames that are uncomprehensable to us civilians. 10 million years is like yesterday to them. Nothing we look at on a daily basis was around only 0.25% of the age of the earth ago.

Moreover, of course, he wasn't counting tar sands and the like for Thanksgiving. Just conventional sources.

I did note also he didn't do much discussion of the future and solutions. He just sort of laid out the situation in terms of a how a seasoned extraction geologist sees things .... and it'll be on us to figure it out. He's in his 70's, it won't be his long-time worry, god bless him.

[donshan_gst1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnviroEngr', '[')size=125]MicroHydro[/size]
Joined: Apr 10, 2005
Posts: 20

... posted this review:

"I have purchased the book and just read it too. This is a work narrowly focused on energy geology with only minimal discussion of possible social, economic, and geopolitical consequences. This is not a criticism, it is a very good petroleum geology book for the lay reader with a nice historical perspective. Technical issues in exploration and secondary recovery are well addressed. "

[donshan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anonymous', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnviroEngr', '[')size=125]MicroHydro[/size]
Joined: Apr 10, 2005
Posts: 20

... posted this review:

"I have purchased the book and just read it too. This is a work narrowly focused on energy geology with only minimal discussion of possible social, economic, and geopolitical consequences. This is not a criticism, it is a very good petroleum geology book for the lay reader with a nice historical perspective. Technical issues in exploration and secondary recovery are well addressed. "

[Barlow]

Very precise and accurate review, donshan.

[peripato]

I just purchased this book and found it a great introduction to the art and science of petroleum discovery and production. Although math is not my strong suit, after a second reading of chapter 3 which deals with how Hubbert's Theory is derived, I too could recognise the elegance behind the methodology. Overall I’d give it 4 stars out of 5 just for the information contained in this chapter alone. Some of the rest of the book is a bit puzzling though, especially Deffeyes' views on uranium reserves which I think are highly optimistic to say the least, and also parts of the final chapter (ch.10 The Big Picture) where he discusses some possible mitigation strategies for peak oil, but from a U.S. perspective. Arguing that the U.S. should be continue to be a be a leader in the research, development, and marketing of weapons systems, to offset the cost of oil imports in future, is hardly the best advice for maintaining world stability during the forthcoming "energy famine" now is it? Or perhaps Ken feels that it should be America’s century after all! Ha, ha!