Suppose that peak oil flushes the American dream down the toilet: the McMansion in the suburbs, the SUVs, Walmart etc... Lifestyles are destroyed and people are hysterical.
Who will be the scapegoat? The party in power? The Democrats? The Republicans? The oil companies? OPEC? The Chinese? The environmentalists? The media?
What's your theory?
PeakOil is You
The Scapegoat
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The Scapegoat
by JohnDenver » Mon 16 May 2005, 01:08:42
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Re: The Scapegoat
by WebHubbleTelescope » Mon 16 May 2005, 01:23:53
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')What's your theory?
')What's your theory?
Take a Business 101 class.
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by linlithgowoil » Mon 16 May 2005, 06:27:31
i dont know really... maybe it will be the EIA? There is no way the government of any country will take resonsibility, they'll just say 'we took the advice of the EIA and they were wrong - nothing to do with us'.
It all depends on whether they actually come out and admit to oil peaking and declining for geological reasons, or if they try and lie and pretend its because of the arabs and the environmentalists. i know there will be a lot of people who would gladly accept putting the blame on someone and trying to do something about it (kill them?), rather than accept the idea that oil producion is in irreversible decline - forever.
The problem is, there will be people who will deny that there is such a thing as peak oil - and they'll be people high up in power, and the ordinary guy will think they are right and support them. Anything, other than accept a lower standard of life.
It all depends on whether they actually come out and admit to oil peaking and declining for geological reasons, or if they try and lie and pretend its because of the arabs and the environmentalists. i know there will be a lot of people who would gladly accept putting the blame on someone and trying to do something about it (kill them?), rather than accept the idea that oil producion is in irreversible decline - forever.
The problem is, there will be people who will deny that there is such a thing as peak oil - and they'll be people high up in power, and the ordinary guy will think they are right and support them. Anything, other than accept a lower standard of life.
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by RonMN » Mon 16 May 2005, 07:12:41
All this finger pointing & "blame game" is going on right now...everybody is blaming everybody...except themselves!
That's right...it was McDonalds that made me fat! My own personal over-consumption habits had nothing to do with it!!!
That's right...it was McDonalds that made me fat! My own personal over-consumption habits had nothing to do with it!!!
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by JohnDenver » Mon 16 May 2005, 08:04:48
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'A')ll this finger pointing & "blame game" is going on right now...everybody is blaming everybody...except themselves!
Exactly... That's why I think someone has to get blamed. Some person, or group of people -- sort of the "Ken Lay" of Peak Oil -- will have to get publicly punished. It's seems impossible that no one would be blamed for such a huge foul up. On the other hand, there's so many possibilities that it's very hard to predict.
I can imagine the peak oilers (environmentalists) trying to direct public anger toward the establishment, like Greenspan, economists, pro-growth politicians, industry in general. On the other hand, I can see the establishment deflecting blame off onto "foreigners", who are holding out on the oil because they hate us and want to choke us to death. After all, the USGS has determined that the oil is out there. Or it may be a local thing: people blaming suburban developers. It's complicated. It all boils down to who has the most power to make their finger pointing stick, who has the most propaganda power.
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by GD » Mon 16 May 2005, 09:42:04
Fresh from my inbox:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')T HAS BEEN CALCULATED THAT IF EVERYONE IN GREAT BRITAIN DID NOT PURCHASE A DROP OF PETROL FOR ONE DAY AND ALL AT THE SAME TIME, THE OIL COMPANIES WOULD CHOKE ON THEIR STOCKPILES. AT THE SAME TIME IT WOULD HIT THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY WITH A NET LOSS OF OVER 4.6 BILLION POUNDS WHICH AFFECTS THE BOTTOM LINES OF THE OIL COMPANIES.
THEREFORE MAY 19TH HAS BEEN FORMALLY DECLARED "STICK IT UP THEIR BEHIND "DAY AND THE PEOPLE OF THIS NATION SHOULD NOT BUY A SINGLE DROP OF PETROL THAT DAY. THE ONLY WAY THIS CAN BE DONE IS IF YOU FORWARD THIS E-MAIL TO AS MANY PEOPLE AS YOU CAN AND AS QUICKLY AS YOU CAN TO GET THE WORD OUT.
WAITING ON THIS GOVERNMENT TO STEP IN AND CONTROL THE PRICES IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. WHAT HAPPENED TO THE REDUCTION AND CONTROL IN PRICES THAT THE ARAB NATIONS PROMISED A FORTNIGHT AGO?
REMEMBER ONE THING, NOT ONLY IS THE PRICE OF PETROL GOING UP BUT AT THE SAME TIME AIRLINES ARE FORCED TO RAISE THEIR PRICES, TRUCKING COMPANIES ARE FORCED TO RAISE THEIR PRICES WHICH EFFECTS PRICES ON EVERYTHING THAT IS SHIPPED. THINGS LIKE FOOD, CLOTHING, BUILDING MATERIALS, MEDICAL SUPPLIES ETC.
WHO PAYS IN THE END? WE DO!
WE CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE. IF THEY DON'T GET THE MESSAGE AFTER ONE DAY, WE WILL DO IT AGAIN AND AGAIN. SO DO YOUR PART AND SPREAD THE WORD.
FORWARD THIS EMAIL TO EVERYONE YOU KNOW.
MARK YOUR CALENDARS AND MAKE MAY 19TH A DAY THAT THE CITIZENS OF GREAT BRITAIN SAY "ENOUGH IS ENOUGH"
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')T HAS BEEN CALCULATED THAT IF EVERYONE IN GREAT BRITAIN DID NOT PURCHASE A DROP OF PETROL FOR ONE DAY AND ALL AT THE SAME TIME, THE OIL COMPANIES WOULD CHOKE ON THEIR STOCKPILES. AT THE SAME TIME IT WOULD HIT THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY WITH A NET LOSS OF OVER 4.6 BILLION POUNDS WHICH AFFECTS THE BOTTOM LINES OF THE OIL COMPANIES.
THEREFORE MAY 19TH HAS BEEN FORMALLY DECLARED "STICK IT UP THEIR BEHIND "DAY AND THE PEOPLE OF THIS NATION SHOULD NOT BUY A SINGLE DROP OF PETROL THAT DAY. THE ONLY WAY THIS CAN BE DONE IS IF YOU FORWARD THIS E-MAIL TO AS MANY PEOPLE AS YOU CAN AND AS QUICKLY AS YOU CAN TO GET THE WORD OUT.
WAITING ON THIS GOVERNMENT TO STEP IN AND CONTROL THE PRICES IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. WHAT HAPPENED TO THE REDUCTION AND CONTROL IN PRICES THAT THE ARAB NATIONS PROMISED A FORTNIGHT AGO?
REMEMBER ONE THING, NOT ONLY IS THE PRICE OF PETROL GOING UP BUT AT THE SAME TIME AIRLINES ARE FORCED TO RAISE THEIR PRICES, TRUCKING COMPANIES ARE FORCED TO RAISE THEIR PRICES WHICH EFFECTS PRICES ON EVERYTHING THAT IS SHIPPED. THINGS LIKE FOOD, CLOTHING, BUILDING MATERIALS, MEDICAL SUPPLIES ETC.
WHO PAYS IN THE END? WE DO!
WE CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE. IF THEY DON'T GET THE MESSAGE AFTER ONE DAY, WE WILL DO IT AGAIN AND AGAIN. SO DO YOUR PART AND SPREAD THE WORD.
FORWARD THIS EMAIL TO EVERYONE YOU KNOW.
MARK YOUR CALENDARS AND MAKE MAY 19TH A DAY THAT THE CITIZENS OF GREAT BRITAIN SAY "ENOUGH IS ENOUGH"
So there you have it, blame:
1) Oil companies.
2) The Arabs.
3) The Government.
4) Anyone else except our cheap imported goodies and cheap holiday in the sun loving selves!
Btw I never forwarded this, I hit reply instead with the powerswitch peak oil animation attached.
GD
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by julianj » Mon 16 May 2005, 11:01:51
oooooh! I'd watch it Ron, mate. You may be joking but the Patriot Act aint. People have ended up in Guantanamo (or elsewhere in the US Global Gulag) for less.
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by some_guy282 » Tue 17 May 2005, 13:27:54
Good topic. I think who takes the blame will be largely dependent on how things play themselves out. In a slow and gradual decline scenario, it's possible the realization we have Peaked could be made. On the other hand, people could just as easily point the finger at OPEC and oil companies and say "Those bastards are gouging us at the pump!"
If there is a steep and sudden decline (like Ghawar falling off a production cliff), then natural depletion would be hard to hide, and the general populous will probably blame the establishment (government in general. Democrats and Republicans). Unless of course, our leaders called the Saudis or whoever else can't pump enough oil liars. They might say they can't pump enough oil, but we all know they're holding back and trying to destroy our way of life because they hate our freedom. Of course there is also the possibility that the Saudis themselves could blow up their own equipment when a serious decline starts and blame it on... that's right, you guessed it, Al Qaeda!
Personally, I'm a bit of a cynic and that's sort of how I see things playing themselves out. If natural declines are allowed to (rightly) appear as the immediate cause of the problem, it doesn't matter too much exactly who is blamed because the cat will be out of the bag - Peak Oil will be widely recognized. Once the implications for our entire civilization are widely understood, there might be a panic. Even if we have a soft landing, we're in for years of some very, very hard times. Our leaders don't want to tell the people this.
It would be much easier on them if there were a "permanent carrot on a stick" scenario. Take my Saudi scenario as an example. Ghawar falls off a cliff, and the Saudi's blow up their own equipment to hide the decline and blame it on terrorists. Over night oil shortages. Will people blame depletion and geology? Of course not! They'll think plenty of oil is still in the ground, we just need to rebuild the infrastructure to get at it. Just wait a year or two and all will be well. When another year passes and a new incidint or crisis occurs that further prolongs these "artificial" oil shortages, it will be purely coincidence of course. A terrorist attack here, a war there... it could go on for a long time without ever addressing the real problem: depletion.
If there is a steep and sudden decline (like Ghawar falling off a production cliff), then natural depletion would be hard to hide, and the general populous will probably blame the establishment (government in general. Democrats and Republicans). Unless of course, our leaders called the Saudis or whoever else can't pump enough oil liars. They might say they can't pump enough oil, but we all know they're holding back and trying to destroy our way of life because they hate our freedom. Of course there is also the possibility that the Saudis themselves could blow up their own equipment when a serious decline starts and blame it on... that's right, you guessed it, Al Qaeda!
Personally, I'm a bit of a cynic and that's sort of how I see things playing themselves out. If natural declines are allowed to (rightly) appear as the immediate cause of the problem, it doesn't matter too much exactly who is blamed because the cat will be out of the bag - Peak Oil will be widely recognized. Once the implications for our entire civilization are widely understood, there might be a panic. Even if we have a soft landing, we're in for years of some very, very hard times. Our leaders don't want to tell the people this.
It would be much easier on them if there were a "permanent carrot on a stick" scenario. Take my Saudi scenario as an example. Ghawar falls off a cliff, and the Saudi's blow up their own equipment to hide the decline and blame it on terrorists. Over night oil shortages. Will people blame depletion and geology? Of course not! They'll think plenty of oil is still in the ground, we just need to rebuild the infrastructure to get at it. Just wait a year or two and all will be well. When another year passes and a new incidint or crisis occurs that further prolongs these "artificial" oil shortages, it will be purely coincidence of course. A terrorist attack here, a war there... it could go on for a long time without ever addressing the real problem: depletion.
In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs it is the rule. – Nietzsche
Time makes more converts than reason. – Thomas Paine
History is a set of lies agreed upon. – Napoleon Bonaparte
Time makes more converts than reason. – Thomas Paine
History is a set of lies agreed upon. – Napoleon Bonaparte
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by RonMN » Tue 17 May 2005, 14:32:44
You know who the masses WONT blame is themselves (ourselves)!!!
It could be everything from SUV drivers to people who commute 60 miles or more each day to even land owners! Yes i said LAND OWNERS! why them? because that's what the people will NEED to grow food (or starve) so when faced with that ugly situation, they can rationalize anything...even war against land owners for "doing this to us".
Fast crash or slow...it's bound to get ugly at some point so really LISTEN to who's being blamed...if you are in the crowd being blamed (or even "perceived" to be in that crowd)...RUN OR LOCK N LOAD! it could save your life.
It could be everything from SUV drivers to people who commute 60 miles or more each day to even land owners! Yes i said LAND OWNERS! why them? because that's what the people will NEED to grow food (or starve) so when faced with that ugly situation, they can rationalize anything...even war against land owners for "doing this to us".
Fast crash or slow...it's bound to get ugly at some point so really LISTEN to who's being blamed...if you are in the crowd being blamed (or even "perceived" to be in that crowd)...RUN OR LOCK N LOAD! it could save your life.
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by venky » Tue 17 May 2005, 15:18:48
A real danger is that with possibly both the Republicans and Democrats discredited, we might have radicals on both the left and the right blaming the establishment, finding scapegoats, offering simple solutions to complex problems, generally stirring up hate; anything to seize power.
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by some_guy282 » Tue 17 May 2005, 18:19:56
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('venky', 'A') real danger is that with possibly both the Republicans and Democrats discredited, we might have radicals on both the left and the right blaming the establishment, finding scapegoats, offering simple solutions to complex problems, generally stirring up hate; anything to seize power.
Yup. The American people will elect any madman so long as they promise to restore things to the way they were back in the good ol days.
In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs it is the rule. – Nietzsche
Time makes more converts than reason. – Thomas Paine
History is a set of lies agreed upon. – Napoleon Bonaparte
Time makes more converts than reason. – Thomas Paine
History is a set of lies agreed upon. – Napoleon Bonaparte
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