[Guest]

You know, when I first viewed Matt’s website, I thought to myself “man this guy is wacko.” But as I read through his analysis on the seriousness of our addiction to oil and its lack of readily viable alternatives, I felt my heart drop into my stomach. I really felt sick and began to feel depressed. Here I was, a 25 year-old guy thinking that he had the best of his life still to come. And now, by no fault of my own, I was thinking, maybe my time here in this world will be much shorter than I think.

I’ve hovered around this board and others, and many other peak oil sources on the web, reading about all that I could on energy alternatives – the best possible outcomes, as well as survival methods – if/when the worst should come to pass – and, of course, dieoff, all of which really made me feel very depressed.

And then, suddenly, a funny thing happened. My inner optimist kicked in. And almost immediately, I stopped feeling depressed. In the face of what appears to be an imminent global energy crisis/catastrophe, how can this be?

I think it began when I realized that there was no need to feel depressed, and no need to worry for the uncertainty of the future. I decided at this point that I would live each and every day to its fullest, as if it were my very last. And you know something? Whether that winds up being 5 years from now in the midst of the Doomsday Peak Oil/Economic Crash, or 105 years from now in a post-Oil age of renewable fuels and/or self-sufficiency, I think I’ll be able to go to meet my Maker at peace and with the feeling that I led a good life, I treated everyone justly, with due respect and kindness, and had a wonderful time in the process.

I think this is where I differ from Matt and the other doom and gloomers here. What’s stopping all of you from putting a loaded gun to your temples and pulling the trigger now? Seriously. You’re all chicken littles who may as well be among the living dead. You’re so worried about the impending collapse of civilization that many of you probably spend most of your waking hours watching the gas prices and the markets, anxiously awaiting that dreadful moment when the oil spicket from the Middle East runs dry, resulting in that massive stock market crash, and the bottom falling out of the global economy. Why worry? If it’s going to happen, it’s going to happen, and as Matt has gone through such great pains to illustrate on his website, it seems like there’s little that we can do to stop it, or little chance of any of us surviving the aftermath – or even wanting to survive the aftermath. So why not just end it all already?

I don’t mean to sound harsh, but really, I can’t help but shake my head at all of the senseless, pitiful wallowing that I am reading here. If we’ve only got a matter of days, months, years, or whatever amount of time there is left before the crash and burning of modern civilization, I plan on enjoying myself in every moment of that time that I have. And who knows? There might just be that revolutionary technological breakthrough or social conscious shift of some kind that somehow yet ensures a continuous and prosperous future for mankind sans oil and fossil fuels. But I guess even then, Matt and the other doom and gloomers will find something else to worry themselves to death about.
Don’t get me wrong. I like to plan for the future as much as the next person does. Maybe more so. But with or without peak oil on the horizon, tomorrow is never guaranteed. That 20 mile-wide “planet-busting” asteroid the scientists failed to find in the heavens could ram itself smack into the Earth at 3 am tomorrow morning -- well before the world truly acknowledges peak oil.

Carpe diem. Seize the day! And, dammit, lighten up a little, folks!

[Rural Man]

When I first read Richard Duncan's thoughts at dieoff.com, I was shocked and became depressed for amout six months. I am in the last quarter of my life, assuming I don't get an overtime period, so I was not so much sad for myself as for my children and grandchildren. I just hated the thought that they would not only do without the "toys" produced by such an advanced civilization, but I also hated the idea that they would face a life and death struggle riding down the unwinding of the free energy age. I felt a little guilty that I would have lived my entire life spanning probably the peak of human civilization in terms of material wealth while prior and future generations will have or will suffer by comparison.

I looked around for possible solutions, more or less a form of denial, but finally realized that it was unlikely that something could or would replace the relatively free oil that gave rise to this high standard of living and this artificially inflated population. While I would like to see some solution, I realistically see that this is more a wish than a probability. It just does not make sense that anything will be a suitable substitute, especially taking into account the late hour.

I think that it is highly likely that we will have a "dieoff" back to levels that can be sustained without cheap oil. Whatever human spirit we be applied to moderate that calamity, I do not know, but I think that the likelyhood of avoiding one of the worst periods in human history is slight.

I am doing whatever I can to give my children and grandchildren an edge to get through this period, which is the best I can do. I expect over the next 40 years that we will see widespread civil war/ revolution and much personal violence associated with the struggle to decide who will dieoff and who will survive to be those that this earth can sustain without this bonanza we have enjoyed for the last 100 year.

I almost have a vouyeristic attitude at this point. I want to live as long as I can just to see how this all plays out. I guess it is the same sort of morbid curiosity that makes us slow down on the highway to see the details of a wreck.

[mainster]

The transition period will naturally be very hard but perhaps very quick indeed. The survivors (if any) will in the end have a "better" more balanced life, very far from our current way of living.
True, we should enjoy these last peak moments of unsustainable glory but be a little sad that our groth addiction politics have ruined the lifes of the people to live the next 100 years or so (myself included, just 30y old).

But we will have some exciting times for sure, just like the romans living through their decline or many other civilizations. Reading Tainters "Collpase of Complex societies", one notices big differences in the rate of collapse. Hard to estimate the rate of collapse, but I guess there are so many "positive feedback" mechanisms in the most complex society ever, being totally oil FF and globlization dependant etc., that once it gets going the collapse will be very quick indeed

On a positive note, a quick collapse to far below "equilibrium" is in the long run a much better alternative for the survivors since they would otherwise have much resources less to work with in a scenario of a slower decline, gradually using up alternative resources such as coal and wood on a large scale, setting off more serious climate changes than otherwise....

Your thoughts?

PS: Just listened to latest interview at www.globalpublicmedia.com about GM crops. Very deadly and dangerous indeed!!

Perhaps this is part of the elite "solution", using GM foods as a "bioweapon" to kill off a large percentage of the expendable population.

[Matt Savinar]

Guest:

Clearly you did not listen to the radio interview I have linked up on the site or you would have seen I advocate the exact type of attitude you have undertaken.

I used Amelia Earhart as an example of the type of attitude I think would serve us best.

In that case, you had an individual who accomplished things that she had no business doing when she were born. A woman born in the Victorian age growing up to fly planes around the world?!

Hah, that is almost as crazy as a group of cavemen growing up to fly ships to the moon!

So what happened to our famed aviatrix? She ran out of gas, crashed, and was never heard from again.

Our civilization is on the same path.

But I have a feeling that if you had gone to a 29 year old Earhart and said, "Sorry, but you're going to crash and die in 10 years and there's not a damn thing you can do about it", I don't think that would have stopped her from living a very worthwhile life.

I said that is the type of attitude we should aim for, not putting a gun to our heads.

The "pititful wallowing" you see around here is a projection of your imagination. There are many, many posts and threads that upbeat, productive, etc. . .

As I said in the interview, "It is ironic that people (us) who live in a culture where we all know we could die in a car crash any day, freak out when we find out the party is almost over."

You need to lighten up, stop reading this forum so selectively, and stop projecting your fears and frustrations onto the rest of us.

Matt

[MadScientist]

yet another lecture from armchair_philosopher_01.

What's that about 3 this week?

Your selective opinion of this forum, created to make your lecture valid (to you anyway), is a load of crap. In fact, Im suspicious you're either nigel or plagarized a portion of his spam.


"guest" says, "I plan on enjoying myself in every moment of that time that I have."

You wont find much enjoyment around here with your attitude, so drive your happy ass down to McDonald's and have a Big Mac.

[The_Virginian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat’s stopping all of you from putting a loaded gun to your temples and pulling the trigger now?

[Guest]

let's just shoot everybody that doesn't believe in overshoot

[The_Virginian]

So it IS you Nigel. ok, you got me.

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hy worry? If it’s going to happen, it’s going to happen

[JayHMorrison]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mainster', 'T')he transition period will naturally be very hard but perhaps very quick indeed. The survivors (if any) will in the end have a "better" more balanced life, very far from our current way of living.

[Guest]

For what it's worth, Matt, I'd say you've hedged your bets pretty well in all of this. For a man dedicated to observing the collapse of modern civilization unfold, I'd imagine that you've been making quite a pretty penny from your website.
As if...

So maybe Dick Cheney and the Corporate Oil Barons finally get tossed into the gulag like the rotten, two-faced selfish thugs that they are. Meanwhile, a newly elected President Kerry, realizing the imminent collapse of humanity via Peak Oil, rolls out the 21st century equivalent of the Marshall Plan, subsidizing a MASSIVE unprecedented conversion to wind, solar power and other renewables, as well as a mass-transit infrastructure (incidentally, Al Gore had been planning on doing this for railways). Improbable? Maybe. But if a miracle happens, I'd say you stand to make out pretty well in the aftermath -- Much like the Y2K guys and all of the space rock chasers.

Don't get me wrong, now. I believe in what you are doing here, and I think the sooner word finds its way into the mainstream about Peak Oil, the better our chances are for a real "miracle" to happen. I just like to make observations such as these.

That is all.




it should matter.


If the Kerry [/i]

[Guest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anonymous', 'F')or what it's worth, Matt, I'd say you've hedged your bets pretty well in all of this. For a man dedicated to observing the collapse of modern civilization unfold, I'd imagine that you've been making quite a pretty penny from your website.
As if...

So maybe Dick Cheney and the Corporate Oil Barons finally get tossed into the gulag like the rotten, two-faced selfish thugs that they are. Meanwhile, a newly elected President Kerry, realizing the imminent collapse of humanity via Peak Oil, rolls out the 21st century equivalent of the Marshall Plan, subsidizing a MASSIVE unprecedented conversion to wind, solar power and other renewables, as well as a mass-transit infrastructure (incidentally, Al Gore had been planning on doing this for railways). Improbable? Maybe. But if a miracle happens, I'd say you stand to make out pretty well in the aftermath -- Much like the Y2K guys and all of the space rock chasers.

Don't get me wrong, now. I believe in what you are doing here, and I think the sooner word finds its way into the mainstream about Peak Oil, the better our chances are for a real "miracle" to happen. I just like to make observations such as these.

That is all.




it should matter.


If the Kerry [/i]

[Guest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f that happens, I will go back to practicing law and making three times what I make now.

Average grad of my school (UC Hastings) makes over $90,000 their very first year of practice.

[The_Virginian]

Matt,

FYI that above post was me before I logged in.

Honestly, if i could make that kind of FRN (federal reserve Notes) i would use it to purchase land accesories, drill a well etc. etc. while it has some precieved value.

Let the book ride. Update when nessesary.

Just some freindly advice from a person who gives a Da#m.

[nigel]

Virginian - not me..

Proof:

I'm over 25 (evidence in prior postings) and certainly would be forced to doubt the relative placings of 2. and 3. on your list!

Also I would never advocate the stone agers commit suicide - I'm argueing they get a life! Suicide is always a dreadful waste. In my halfplus century I can assure you all that when there's a down (and I've had my share) there has to be an up. The trick is to find it!

Matt Savinar - still too much certainty that the end is nigh for my liking. You seem to be behind much of the negative stuff - your book/site is more like science fantasy than fact. NO ONE knows how much oil the Saudis have - probably not even them so how anyone can say when they will peak beats me. The whole point is that NO ONE KNOWS WHEN and the fear mongers - yourself included say - well, it will peak and run out one day - SOON SOON. (See my recent post on solar cell advances. Set up a power station!). Where's the proof? One guy (Campbell) reads the figures one way and most of the academics, geologists, oil companies, independent analysts and experts read it another. It really is fantasy and scarmongering conspiracy theory gone mad to think that all those independent countries - many of which are in direct competition are so stupid as to not know the world will end in 2006? Really? ANother way to get more balance is to ask yourself how future markets work and wonder why those in the know havent boosted it into infinity. Or ask why the Saudis still have so much dosh in the USA - a big hit casualty in your negative scenario.

As to this die-off - well MAtt, you should know that the first peak will be followed by price pressure then depression then scramble for allternatives and conservation, another peak and so on. There won't be one peak. The second peak may even be higher than the first one! It could be lower. Those with the dosh to afford $50 - $100 barrels or who have tanks on the lawn will still get the stuff for years to come.

Oil panic is likely to cause more trouble than actual oil shortages. You seem to have got yourself into a state already.

Have you studied Peter Odells stuff? He was a doomster like you and now he's far more optimistic. He's a real pro and does original research, not someone relying and re-gurgitating and speculating.

[DoctorDoom]

I'm not wallowing. Hell, I've been watching the oil situation with one eye since the late 70s, it's not stopping me from living day-to-day. But awareness of the issue of resource depletion has led me to live most of that time in a fairly conservative way. I drive a moderately efficient car, and through choice of where I live and work, don't drive half the miles most people do. I recycle everything, and wherever possible avoid using disposable things made from oil. Sure, my personal actions haven't made a dent in the problem, but I sleep better at night.

More importantly now as we approach the peak, whether it's next year, or 10 years from now, is trying to, as Aaron says, avoid hitting the brick wall at full speed. I'm of the opinion that we can at least slow down before impact, and perhaps avoid it completely - but only if we take action. I plan to buy a HEV or PHEV within the next 2 years, and I am looking seriously for the first time in 3 decades at solar water heating and PV technologies. We can't let the magnitude of the problem deter us from at least trying - the stakes are too high. But we can still be cheerful as we face the task. The WWII generation faced down a terrible threat and difficult times with optimism - so can we.

[Guest]

Nigel-

What is your point?

Seriously, and overall, have you thought about what you are saying?

Can you sum it up in a few sentences . . . I wonder.

I am not sure you have a synthetic resolve without someone to disagree with.

Are you just an apostate?

[nigel]

Guest -(Matt?)

Have I thought what I am saying?

I have offered suggestions, answers, questions and alternatives to most of the issues I have addressed here. I have made positive suggestions and tried to look at the problem of non-renewable energy waste as sensibly as the available information allows. I try to deal with facts not absurd conjecture and imagined statistics. Is it too difficult dealing with actual facts, sensible opinion and rational debate? Are the facts inconvenient when it comes to selling PANIC? Must we invent what we don't know to scare people when there's enough to be concerned about already?

If you want a book read Matt Savinar's - his sums up peak oil like this - oil will run out VERY SOON and society will rapidly collapse back to the stone age. Prepare for a mass die-off. Cambell was wrong in 1989, 1990, 1991, .... but he will be right eventually.

I find this simple Malthusian position impossible to scan with the facts and reality. It scares people.

I sum up the issues like this: there are too many people on the planet increasing by 6,000,000 a month using up too much of everything. A huge variety of problems are fast approaching, oil is but one. And not the main one. We need to focus people's mind on these problems and do something about them and their possible consequences. This site helps do that. Running away, giving in etc is ridiclous, selfish, defeatist - a negation of the meaning of life. I attempt to counter this negativity. I can see positive trends - mentioned elswhere such as natural population control and numerous technological advances on the horizon. I seek to counter ignorant fear with fact. I attempt to approach uncertainty with hesitation not certainty.

The Arabs have a wonderful saying, showing a philosophical depth of understanding which some people, elsewhere this site, are completely ignorant of: "Believe in God but tie up your camel." That's not a bad way to approach Peak Oil.

"I am not sure you have a synthetic resolve without someone to disagree with." Sorry, this sentence makes no sense to me.

"Apostate?" What? Sense?

I have never been a member of a religious order so renouncing one would be impossible.

[MattSavinar]

Nigel,

Unlike others, I have the balls to post under my full and real name.

I do not post as a guest (except accidentally once or twice - and still signed my name) nor do I post under my first name only.

Matt

[Barbara]

nigel,
you're not completely wrong with your statements. It's good to try to guess what Peak Oil will really be, and what it can be done to slow the consequences, to find alternatives, to discuss renewables, waste, etc instead of making horrible prophecies.
But I came here to discuss AFTER I was well scared by doomsayers.
I mean: Matt is doing something which must be done. Like it or not, doomsayer or not, that's the only way to force people to hear the bad news. People don't pay a blink to follow the "save the planet" message. But if you scare the pants out of them, they'll search, they will become informed, they'll come here and at the end they'll change their lives for the better.
Remember, we are human: and when you tell humans "there's no way out"... well, we begin to look for a way out, and usually we find it!