[jacks]

anybody come across any links to the "Asian Bird Flu" ? I was reading about this in the mpls star tribune and it sounds pretty heavy. Projected 30,000 cases/deaths in mn alone, 1.7 mil in the us and 177mil worldwide!
evidently the us is already seeking vaccine, i think they can get or do have 2 million doses at this time.
I would really like to learn more about this, as well as the new case of mad cow in the us. I recomment reading The Coming Plague by Laurie Garriet if you are interested in health issues.

[jesus_of_suburbia_old]

I thought they had not developed a vaccine for avian flu.

[Grimnir]

The death rate is probably overstated since people who don't get sick enough to need medical attention are never recorded. But it'll still be bad if it starts to spread.

[stu]

I know this is possibly the wrong forum to start this thread in because it's not oil related but I thought "what the hell".

If the experts are to be believed then we are standing on the verge of a pandemic of avian flu. Considering that the death rate amongst infected people is 75% this is set to be one killer virus.

There is an outbreak of a new strain of flu every 30 years on average so considering that the last one was in the 1960's it is safe to say that we are overdue a new one. The reason I started this thread is so that I could start a discussion on ways to plan for this because the near future looks pretty scary.

There is no immediately available vaccine and TENS of millions of people are set to be wiped out by this. The only guaranteed method of survival that I can think of is to go camping in the countryside for a few weeks or just lock myself in my bedroom because at least I'll be virtually guaranteed to keep away from human contact.

Any ideas? Or am I just over-reacting?

[Doly]

There's not a single case of contagion from human to human. Until that happens, I think you are overreacting.

[stu]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'T')here's not a single case of contagion from human to human. Until that happens, I think you are overreacting.

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here's not a single case of contagion from human to human. Until that happens, I think you are overreacting.

[JayHMorrison]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('stu', 'C')onsidering that the death rate amongst infected people is 75% this is set to be one killer virus.

[stu]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JayHMorrison', 'W')hat has been the difference between the 25% who survived vs the 75% who died? Age? Availability of health care?

[gg3]

Hiding out for a few weeks isn't enough; the flu will come through in waves and there will be individuals around who are contagious but asymptomatic.

Change your job to something you can do from home, or at least avoid work that requires you to be in frequent close contact with others in the workplace. Same case should apply to your partner if any.

Right now get in the habit of washing hands frequently: after using the bathroom, before preparing food and/or eating, after being in public places, and when you come home at the end of the day. Learn how to avoid touching your face at any time when you are out in a public place; the casual reaching up and scratching an itch at the corner of your eye can be a path for viruses to get in.

Avoid crowded places. Go to the grocery store early or late when few others are present. Find ways to minimize use of public transit (this is not politically correct around here but what the hey) or at least not be on during peak hours.

Obtain a decent respirator and eye goggles (virus particles can get in via the eyes).

Try to get a scrip for Tamiflu and keep a supply on hand. Do not waste it on anything less than the Big One. You will probably have to renew it every year because the stuff does not keep forever.

The countryside may or may not be any better than the city in terms of risk.

[stu]

I guess eating healthy things to boost my immune system is also a priority. More food and drink that contains Vitamin C for example.

[lorenzo]

Yesterday I heard on France Inter that the virus has already spread to cats, pigs and monkeys (that is pig to pig and cat to cat, etc...) So it's only a matter of time before it becomes human to human. Not a question of if, but when. Really scary.

I know that my country has bought 10 million generic flu stoppers which won't kill off this particular virus, but it will slow down the speed at which it spreads, winning us time to survive until a specific vaccine is available.

[Pops]

This is a CDC post from the promedmail site, good background and general info updated almost daily: HERE

Recent research findings give further cause for concern. New research suggests that H5 viruses are becoming more capable of causing disease (pathogenic) for mammals than earlier H5 viruses and are becoming more widespread in birds in the region. One study found that ducks infected with H5N1 are now shedding more virus for longer periods of time without showing any symptoms of illness. This has implications for the role of ducks in transmitting disease to other birds and, possibly, to humans as well. Additionally, other findings have documented H5 infection among pigs in China and H5 infection in felines (experimental infection in house cats in the Netherlands and isolation of H5N1 viruses from infected tigers and leopards in Thailand), suggesting that cats could host or transmit the infection.
These finding are particularly worrisome in light of the fact that reassortment of avian influenza genomes is most likely to occur when these viruses demonstrate a capacity to infect multiple species, as is now the case in Asia.
---------

Also Clinical Analysis

And WHO Site
---------
This makes me think that gg3 is correct in saying the country may be no better than town. If all mammals are easily infected as well as birds it shoots down the theory that you are safe at home.

Self-imposed quarantine if the virus were to become really widespread with a high infection and mortality rate would be your only chance.

Stock up the pantry! Don't forget bleach and alcohol.

Shoot the cat and flush Tweety!

[RIPSmithianEconomics]

What is it that I hate about farm animals? Is it their amazing tendency to breed out of season when you least expect it? Is it the mountains of shit they make? No, it's their ability to acquire diseases and parasites. You can wash them one day and they'll be full of ticks the next.

Back in about 2001 we had problems with Foot And Mouth. Luckily we didn't have any problems in my local area, but we had to recheck our on-farm hygiene and disease management. The problem is that in the summer most farms let each other's animals meet on moors and so on, and a spread of a contagion to just one farm could be disastrous. How is bird flu spread from man to bird (I'm not concerned about human to human contact).

[Pops]

I thought the same Shannymara about the chickens that is.

I would hope that chickens in tractors not confined in a permanent area, away from wild birds and not handled often would be fairly safe. I hope.

[Barbara]

It's ALREADY transmitted human-human. A girl in Vietnam passed it to both her younger brothers one month ago.
I don't have a link right now, but I remember I googlenews-ed it and it was on every newspaper in the world.

[Pops]

From the link I cited, this from the New England Journal of Medicine - I'm not sure it's the same but it's recent, though not as good a headline:

“Direct transmission from sister to brother appears unlikely, considering the interval between their illnesses. Only if the incubation period was
unusually long could sister-to-brother transmission be implicated.â€

[savethehumans]

WHO warns of bird flu pandemic

World health officials have issued their strongest warning yet about the global threat posed by bird flu.

The world is now in the gravest possible danger of a human flu pandemic triggered by the virus, Dr Shigeru Omi told a conference in Vietnam.

The World Health Organisation fears bird flu may get deadlier if it mutates into a form that could be easily transmitted between humans.

Thirteen people have died in Vietnam from the virus since December.

Governments need to take quick action to control the virus's spread, Dr Omi added.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
H5N1 BIRD FLU VIRUS

Principally an avian disease, first seen in humans in Hong Kong, 1997

Almost all human cases thought to be contracted from birds

Isolated cases of human-to-human transmission in Hong Kong and Vietnam, but none confirmed
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bird flu is proving resistant to treatments and has appeared in animals including cats and tigers which had not been considered susceptible to the virus.

Last year bird flu swept through poultry in a dozen countries and killed 45 people.

About 140 million birds died or were slaughtered in an effort to contain the outbreak.

"If the virus becomes highly contagious among humans, the health impact in terms of deaths and sickness will be enormous," Dr Omi said.

Dr Omi told the United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organization conference in Ho Chi Minh City "the world is now in the gravest possible danger of a pandemic".

Such outbreaks usually occur every 20 to 30 years, he said.

The last one was nearly 40 years ago, so by this measure an outbreak was overdue.

Duty to help

Dr Omi said avian flu had the potential to kill more people than Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which killed about 800 people two years ago.

He said WHO was calling on governments to develop contingency plans in case of an outbreak.

However, he added that the virus, also called H5N1, had not yet "gained the potential for efficient human-to-human transmission" which would make it far more deadly.

The conference is focusing on controlling the spread of the disease amongst poultry populations in South Asian countries.

Curbing the disease in this way would also help prevent bird flu spreading to countries outside the area, delegates said.

Dr Samuel Jutzi, of the Food and Agriculture Organization, told the conference: "There is an increasing risk of avian influenza spread that no poultry-keeping country can afford to ignore."

Anti-viral drugs

The WHO has previously called on governments around the world to stockpile vaccines so they would be prepared should the feared pandemic occur.

The United States has contracted for 4 million vaccine doses, while Italy and France anticipate stockpiling 2 million doses each, New Scientist magazine recently reported.

In the UK, the Department of Health has said it has no plans to stockpile vaccines, because of the difficulty of designing one in advance which will act against a mutated virus.

However, it has said it will provide anti-viral drugs to key groups such as health workers and emergency services.

Delegates at the three-day Vietnam conference heard avian flu was now entrenched in the bird population of south-east Asia and would probably persist for many years.

UN officials said it was the common duty of governments around the world to provide practical support to South East Asia to help tackle the disease.


Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/a ... 289637.stm

[gg3]

Vital workers including, in most of the stories I've seen, refuse collection workers. Which is also an outdoor job, and one that historically, aside from muscle strain injuries, is known to be pretty healthy. So there's your potential safe job in the event of a flu pandemic.

As for cats, keep 'em inside, out of contact with other cats. If we do away with cats, or let them get killed off by the flu, you can expect a major resurgence of rodent pests. Which is exactly what leads to major outbreaks of bubonic plague.

[oowolf]

The demand destruction resulting from a pandemic would delay PO considerably for the survivors. The 1916-1918 flu circled the world 3 times in 3 years--be prepared for a long-term quarantine. I have a well under my floor and probably a 10+ years supply of dried food but not enough books.