[BigTex]

I think what is so unsettling about what's going on right now to people who are peak oil aware is that there are two distinct types of pessimism unfolding.

The first type of pessimism is the normal group pessimism that rolls around every seven years or so and makes everyone decide to stop spending for 12-18 months and just feel a lot less optimistic for a while. This malaise wears off after a while, and it's happy days again and the economy takes off. This is the paradigm that most people relate to.

The second type of pessimism is the belief that the future will be very challenging because the end of cheap oil will replace a tailwind with a headwind, and everything about economic life will get harder. The cumulative effects of fossil fuel use on the environment will also create many problems. That's peak oil.

What's vexing to a lot of people right now (myself included) is that it's hard to tell if:

1. we are in the early stages of the bleak peak oil future we all fear, or

2. we are in a normal downturn in the business cycle and the pessimism we are feeling just the normal cyclical gloominess that will lift in 12-18 months, or

3. we are feeling some combination of the two.

I think that what is likely to happen is that we will emerge from this recession in the normal 12-18 month timeframe, but I think people will be surprised to find that the resulting growth is less robust than the prior expansion because fuel prices will remain stubbornly high going forward.

What's strange at this moment, though, is that for the first time in a long time the peak oil crowd is feeling a society-wide collective sense of discomfort, uncertainty and fear that makes the peak oil minded person think "this must be it", when the rest of society is actually just feeling the CYCLICAL pessimism of the business cycle, not the end times pessimism of the peak oiler. So, to a degree, this broad gloom we are feeling right now may just be a head fake to the people who are peak oil-aware and who think that the rest of the world is finally starting to catch on that there are some BIG problems on the horizon. That may not be happening at all.

It's a weird time.

[canis_lupus]

I try not to have that "sailed-off-the-edge-of-the-world" feeling when I do my addition. Here's how I add it up:

1. oil: grab any production / price per barrel / price per gallon chart from TOD. It is pretty evident that oil prices have never done what they are doing short of OPEC intentionally doing it to us. I can rationalize the price increase away (somewhat) but the glaring factor is we're $40 above what Katrina did to oil prices.

2. Financial markets. 'nuff said.

3. The cost of food - which, if oil crashes, may or may not crash depending on how much ethanol we keep making.

4. Population boom

5. water shortages

Any of the above taken by itself is a brow-wrinking cause for concern. Take two together and my doomer meter starts twitching. Add them all up and I just don't see a way out.

Earlier this century I was approached to do some design work for a presentation a guy had to give to one of the intelligence services. He couldn't tell me what was in the presentation which made it hard to bid on (I didn't do the project). He was a statistician and made an interesting observation:

We have reams of data on one-car crashes on wet roads. They happen every day and the Department of Transportation can tell us all we need to know about the conditions that caused the crash. But how do you predict and plan for things that have never happened before? He used the example of a warhead going off in a silo. He said we can plan as best we can for the things we think will happen, but it's always the things we don't know that cause the most pain. He said one failure can be planned for. Two simultaneous failures compound the probability of disaster and three or more can't be planned for at all.

So, I'm picking Peak Oil and the crash of the financial markets because preparation for the two are pretty similar. If my plan B runs out of water because of climate change, I'm hosed.

I wish my dad were still alive so I could have a beer with him and ask what he thought it'd be like nowadays and what it was like in 73' -'73 and '79.

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('canis_lupus', 'I') try not to have that "sailed-off-the-edge-of-the-world" feeling when I do my addition. Here's how I add it up:

1. oil: grab any production / price per barrel / price per gallon chart from TOD. It is pretty evident that oil prices have never done what they are doing short of OPEC intentionally doing it to us. I can rationalize the price increase away (somewhat) but the glaring factor is we're $40 above what Katrina did to oil prices.

2. Financial markets. 'nuff said.

3. The cost of food - which, if oil crashes, may or may not crash depending on how much ethanol we keep making.

4. Population boom

5. water shortages

Any of the above taken by itself is a brow-wrinking cause for concern. Take two together and my doomer meter starts twitching. Add them all up and I just don't see a way out.

[Ferretlover]

Oh, good! I thought it was just me!
Have you noticed in the last couple of weeks, the threads seem to bounce between "Oh, my god, everything is starting to fall apart," and giddiness bordering on hysteria?
I think I mentioned this elsewhere (and, if I didn't, I meant to!) that somedays it is difficult to have a split personality-knowing and learning more about what is happening and knowing that there's no good way to fix all the problems, but trying to live in an artificial world where everything is hunky-dory now and always will be....

[eastbay]

BigTex, that was a really well written posting.

One factor causing the uptick in the doom around here is the ocean of uncertainties and doubts circling around us. There are more this time around led, for the first time, by the gruesome specter of oil and other basic resource depletion.

I too have a sense things will improve in an undulating fashion for a time, but there will never be another sweet economic expansion as we've enjoyed in the past due to the fundamental issue of resource depletion. Cheap and plentiful basic materials power economic expansion. Not money.

That's the big difference this time around. That's the cause for the nervousness.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 't')his leisure class

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '
')That's the cause for the nervousness.

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 't')his leisure class

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '
')That's the cause for the nervousness.

[Ferretlover]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', ' ')It will be a little like Starship Troopers, except the troops will not be quite as agile.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', ' ')while the under-70 set will likely be drafted to fight.

[Ferretlover]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', ' ')while the under-70 set will likely be drafted to fight.

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', ' ')while the under-70 set will likely be drafted to fight.

[Ferretlover]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', ' ')while the under-70 set will likely be drafted to fight.

[Pops]

I agree that was a great OP, Tex.

Anyway, I have always been somewhat manic; either I have this great new idea that I obsess on or this great fear. Don't get me wrong, I use all those descriptions in a relative sense.

Way before I read all the stuff about PO, in fact way back I was somewhat of a doomer, while on the flip side I enjoyed learning and doing things for myself which was a little soothing.

Look back at the first posts here, the opinions were all over the map. Go back the The Limits to Growth or Silent Spring or the old testament for that matter.

The thing that does tie all those together is the fact that we each act on the belief those actions will have one certain outcome but they rarely do. We look at the actions of our neighbors, politicians, business people, etc and think the result will be such and such and they rarely are.

It seems it's the things we don't know that we don't know and can't foretell that make it all interesting.



Oh and btw, this isn't the Open so if anyone wants to just do the idle chatter/banter thing why not keep out there?

[threadbear]

I have all of the same ideas and emotions you do, Big Tex. I think most people over 50, who remember previous cycles, think what's coming is going to be similar or worse than the 70's/80's. That realization has probably just recently dawned.

There is going to be a lot of confusion around peak. I'm living within viewing distance of Mt.Baker. The closer I get to it, the harder it is to see.

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'O')OOohh... I didn't think of it that way...
HHHmmm... keep "pet" zombies on the "payroll" by feeding them those who are no longer able to contribute??
This way to the kitchens:arrow:

[PrairieMule]

If I have one soapbox to stand and pontificate on, this is it.

These cycles are all to common with every one of our valued posters. Take a day or two off and get away from here if you must.

The trick is realizing where you are cutting back on your exposure of doom. It gets easier over time. I promise. This includes little trips to the gun counter to look at glocks or bulk ammo. Also fill your tank with gas. A full tank always eases my mind. Go fishing, eat a big steak, go have relations with Mrs Tex, and so on.

Just for reference, you should have been here two years ago when everyone was convinced Israel ws going to Nuke Iran in April. It was (pardon my french) a real Circle Jerk of Doom. That was hot off the heels of Katrina.

[Alpaca]

I was talking with my mom on the phone last night and we started to get into a kind of similar discussion. We were talking about the overall state of the economy and the prospects of a recession/ depression or however you'd like to describe it. Her premise was that things could (& probably will) get worse but that it's a natural cycle of the economy; the pendulum swings from boom to bust and back again, and she's seen these cycles her whole life....

My take (or at least my 2 cents) was, what she thought might bring the economy back to "booming" this time? Even at the height of the Great Depression (with runs on banks, no available credit, and unemployment around 25%) there was still an awful lot of resources available which aren't anymore.
Now we've got a nine trillion dollar deficit, a negative household savings rate, a falling currency, a housing crisis, a banking crisis, and little industrial manufacturing or farming base to rely on. 2/3rd's of the economy is based on consumer spending and if that grinds to a halt...then what? (I didn't even bother mantioning fuel and energy costs 'cuz the whole 'peak oil' thing just doesn't seem to register with her)

Her response was something along the lines of "hang tight" for a year or so, and things will turn around, just you see. Essentially a variation on the "technology will save us" argument in response to peak oil, just substituting "wall street" for "technology"

I really do hope this is just a "normal" 12-18 month downturn, but the question in my head still remains...what economic forces could come along to help dig us out of this hole?

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'I') have all of the same ideas and emotions you do, Big Tex. I think most people over 50, who remember previous cycles, think what's coming is going to be similar or worse than the 70's/80's. That realization has probably just recently dawned.