[vision-master]

I never heard of this one before?

The Kondratieff cycle

The sum of the 4 generations is called a saeculum, it is from 70 to 80 years in length, or the length of time it takes the grandfathers to pass away from the scene....

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Fourth Turning, by Howe and Strauss. That book describes how any society goes through four stages of development. The first is the survivor, creator generation. The second is the children of them, they continue and boost the creativity of the first sacrifice generation. The third is a consumption driven, flaccid generation. The fourth is the loser generation destined either for war or economic collapse, they are losers because they have none of the personal discipline that the first sacrificial and creative generation had.

After the fourth turning, the society begins to raise itself from the ashes of the old flaccid one. That is, if they are not conquered by enemies, or die off in some plague... (both of these have happened and ruined societies).

[Jellric]

Yep. History is cyclical not linear. But when you look at how most people live their lives they clearly believe the latter.

[Dvanharn]

At least, that's what today's peakoil.com news says. The Kondratieff cycle hypothesis is interesting, but do the authors integrate society evolution/change with population issues, energy influences and other salient factors?

I don't see any way that the next cycle will follow the old pattern with fossil fuel energy declining at an increasing rate and a resulting decline in global population. Every cycle in the past has been driven by ever more cheap, easily produced energy. All the cornucopian dreams of alternative technologies don't seem to have the scalability or economic feasibility to replace oil and natural gas. And don't forget global warming and sea level rise - now forecast at six feet of more by the end of the 21st century. If any of the feared (or unknown) feedbacks kick in, 5-10 feet of sea level rise could destroy our civilization - there just wouldn't be enough energy to keep moving the seaports and low-lying fertile regions of the world to higher ground. (Bangladesh, Viet Nam, China, Eastern and Southeastern coastal U.S., etc.)

Other than those few minor problems, I can think of little else to stand in the way of another completed Kondratieff cycle.

I am not a doomer! I am not a doomer! I am not a doomer! (Perhaps if I repeat it often enough, I will believe it)

Dave

[FreakOil]

Americans of my generation will likely see the Kondratieff cycle at work in their family history.

1) Great-grandparents immigrated from poor region of Europe and started from scratch.

2) Grandparents worked hard and kept on family traditions, telling stories in their old age about how their parents worked hard and sacrificed to build a life in America.

3) Then the boomers came along and bought cars and motorboats, and also completely lost their ability to speak their grandparents native language.

4) Now we're left in the Peak Oil world trying to figure out how to survive when things start a-changing, and we have to get back some of that old-world grit that our great-grandparents had in spades.