[fonzcad3]

In a school psychology class two years back I studied a concept called group think. Essentially people in a group are compelled to conform in thought. This leads to a stifling of dissenting discussion with potentially disastrous consequences. For example, the space shuttle Challenger disaster was caused by an O-ring failure in the Solid Rocket Booster. An engineer had raised concerns about these O-rings before the disaster but was dismissed out of hand because of pressure to get the launch off on time.

I've been lurking on this forum for a while now. I must admit that many of the opinions expressed on here are backed up by compelling reasoning and often I find myself agreeing with them. However, I have also noticed that any opinions against the group are so quickly dismissed, often without reasonable discussion, that I'm afraid this group has become a useless forum for rational debate. Many of the dissenters have long ago left the forum as I no longer see their posts.

Is there any way that we can convince these people to come back? I enjoy hearing that the world is not going to end because of such and such. No one on this forum is an expert in every area of study that might affect the outcome of peak oil (physics, chemistry, petroleum engineering, electrical engineering, sociology, psychology etc). There is also compelling research going on in energy as we speak. However, whenever one of these research options is presented it is always dismissed out of hand just because it isn't fossil fuel (aka: the status quo). It seems to me that society at large has the same opinion and this is dangerous. We should be praising innovation, not disparaging it.

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'ve been lurking on this forum for a while now. I must admit that many of the opinions expressed on here are backed up by compelling reasoning and often I find myself agreeing with them. However, I have also noticed that any opinions against the group are so quickly dismissed, often without reasonable discussion, that I'm afraid this group has become a useless forum for rational debate. Many of the dissenters have long ago left the forum as I no longer see their posts.

[Nike62]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fonzcad3', 'I')n a school psychology class two years back I studied a concept called group think. Essentially people in a group are compelled to conform in thought. This leads to a stifling of dissenting discussion with potentially disastrous consequences. For example, the space shuttle Challenger disaster was caused by an O-ring failure in the Solid Rocket Booster. An engineer had raised concerns about these O-rings before the disaster but was dismissed out of hand because of pressure to get the launch off on time.

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fonzcad3', 'I')'ve been lurking on this forum for a while now. I must admit that many of the opinions expressed on here are backed up by compelling reasoning and often I find myself agreeing with them. However, I have also noticed that any opinions against the group are so quickly dismissed, often without reasonable discussion, that I'm afraid this group has become a useless forum for rational debate. Many of the dissenters have long ago left the forum as I no longer see their posts.

[firestarter]

Read:


Hegelian Dialectic


Delphi Technique


Free your mind. Step outside the dialectic.

[vision-master]

This site is waaaaaaaaaaay more open to discuss Peak Oil than those "normal web forums".

Mention PO anywhere else, and "the group" considers you a lunatic. Period!

[crapattack]

As one of those who often finds myself in the dissenter position on this forum (it does depend on the topic) I've grown a pretty thick skin. I've had all kinds of abuse hurled my way and I just either throw it right back, ignore it, or most of the time just laugh. I mean, it's an online forum, it's not the Roman Colosseum. There are some attack dogs and lions around but the only thing that can get hurt here is my ego which my partner says can stand to be punctured a bit anyway. There are a few real nut-jobs who seem to be attracted to dissenters and love to stick themselves to you like shit on white shorts, sometimes more than one at a time. I like the mental sport and activity of the forum, but in the end I started to see it as rather vain and pointless and for that reason took about a year off PO forum recently. The threads on this forum that have the most real value for me are the planning threads where egos and the sport of argument don't matter as much and where I can help myself prepare for the future.

[JasonHam]

We should be praising innovation, not disparaging it.

I agree, but don't tell heineken that!!!!


Mention PO anywhere else, and "the group" considers you a lunatic. Period!


Why do you think that is? I've researched the subject. I've read several books. I've listened to the arguments, from the wacky , off the-wall doomers to the distingished Scientist or Presidentail Advisor. Peak-Oil, to me, is a legit concern. But, like you say, most anybody considers it part of the lunatic fringe! I dont understand why that is the case? Am i missing something? Am i gullable to believe Peak-oil is not just a bunch of wackos prediciting the end of the world? Its hard to go against the Group!!!! Self doubt creeps in....

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fonzcad3', '
')No one on this forum is an expert in every area of study that might affect the outcome of peak oil (physics, chemistry, petroleum engineering, electrical engineering, sociology, psychology etc). There is also compelling research going on in energy as we speak. However, whenever one of these research options is presented it is always dismissed out of hand just because it isn't fossil fuel (aka: the status quo). It seems to me that society at large has the same opinion and this is dangerous. We should be praising innovation, not disparaging it.

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e should be praising innovation, not disparaging it.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Mention PO anywhere else, and "the group" considers you a lunatic. Period!


Why do you think that is? I've researched the subject. I've read several books. I've listened to the arguments, from the wacky , off the-wall doomers to the distingished Scientist or Presidentail Advisor. Peak-Oil, to me, is a legit concern. But, like you say, most anybody considers it part of the lunatic fringe! I dont understand why that is the case? Am i missing something? Am i gullable to believe Peak-oil is not just a bunch of wackos prediciting the end of the world? Its hard to go against the Group!!!!

[nero]

I think we are pretty good at letting people have their say, however people here are as closed minded as anywhere else.

We don't tend to give other people's arguments a fair hearing.

Aaron, in one recent thread responded to a reasoned argument about solar power by posting an image of a toilet paper roll. This I think is the sort of behaviour that stiffles debate and encourages group think. Sure Aaron has probably heard it all before a thousand times. If that is the case he should either move on or politely give a link to a thread where it has already been discussed.

I think people should avoid all responses that are the equivalent of a one line "You're so right!" or "You're so wrong!". It clutters up the thread and simply reinforces the group think. If you feel compelled to tell the poster that you are in complete agreement do it as a private message.

We probably should also avoid rediculous polls that are designed to elicite a lobsided response from the readers. CNN does this every single day on Lou Dobbs and I believe it is DESIGNED to encourage group think.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fonzcad3', '.')..We should be praising innovation, not disparaging it.

[JasonHam]

maybe your right. Fear. People are just too scared to just "discuss" the "possibilty" of "maybe" one day running out of Oil. Why don't they fear Climate Change anymore? Why don't they fear terrorsim or War or Bird Flu? Most everybody will disucss these topics with you. Its Peak-Oil in particular that I get the "Blank" stares. I think most people believe Alternatives will come to fruition when its becomes economically feasible for them to be used. After all, they keep hearing about ethanol and sugar cane and all kinds of new technologies. Which may very well be the case. But the issue, at least for me is, how it all unfolds. The timeframe of these events occurring? And how "bad" will it get, if it gets bad at all? Anyway, I think its a lack of understanding what Peak -oil means. There is no real definition......its a bunch of "What ifs" ......


My gut feeling is most people I bring this up with have no background on the subject. They don't even know what the Phrase Peak-Oil means. No one wants to get into a "debate" without knowing what they are debating. And no one wants to preached too. We have enough preachers/counslers/caretakers in this country. And when you start to talking about the ramifications of peak oil, like the high cost of gasoline and what that means to the economy, they just don't want to hear it or there is just nothing they can do about it and they can't really add to the conversation. It is interesting though. Sometimes I try to sneak into a topic of conversation and act like I don't know much about it.

[killJOY]

A radio talk show (in Maine) today had a speaker on talking about "Interfaith Power and Light," a company from whom you can "buy" "green" energy.

You get a little "green E" certificate that announces your virtue. Of course, you pay your regular light bill, with a little extra tagged on that basically says "I like windmills!"

The speaker at least admitted a)that the electrons people were getting were still coming from nat gas and coal plants; b)that there was no way this little power company could supply the whole state; and c)that there was a larger "problem" that needed addressing.

I couldn't resist making a phonecall.

I said that I'd been offered this "green" power but declined it due to its cost but mostly because I thought it was pointless.

I discussed natural gas declines in US and Canada, Jean Lahererre's discovery + production graph that shows sudden declines in our very near future, and how "green" power was not going to make a dent in the coming blackouts.



Every caller after me wanted to talk about compact fluorescent BULBS, their virtues and drawbacks.

NO ONE IS LISTENING. IS THAT NOT GROUP THINK?

[nero]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'S')ure, and we would be praising any innovation to the heavens if it had even the slightest little outside chance of replacing the thermal content and molecular structure of oil and gas.

[JasonHam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fonzcad3', '.')..We should be praising innovation, not disparaging it.

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m inclined to think, if given enough time, something will replace crude oil.

[Ibon]

Group think is always present, especially with the defenders of the status quo who have the most to lose. Desenters of the peak oil theory are seen as part of the status quo or somewhere in the early stages of denial or stuck in the meme that technology will save us.

And you know what? 99.9% of the time they are!

[JasonHam]

I discussed natural gas declines in US and Canada, Jean Lahererre's discovery + production graph that shows sudden declines in our very near future, and how "green" power was not going to make a dent in the coming blackouts.

First, most people probably dont know anything about it. Second, what exactly would you want them to do about it?

Basically your argument is that the green movement is useless. These people just want to do their part.......They don't have time to save the whole world. They just want to do their part. Buying flourescent bulbs is a start.......next it will be energy efficient washers and dryers, next it will be carpooling, next it will limiting Air conditioning and Heating, next it will be growing/buying organically local food. Soon, people will be encouraged to work from home via the internet, so on and so on. The green movement is trying to get the snow ball started. You can't just change everything and everybody in a matter of months. It will take years if not decades to change. Your telling them to say "F it" nothing can be done anyway....