[dogf]

So after a year of reading and lurking various places after hearing of PO, and thinking the sky was falling, in the last couple months I am now thinking we will not be as bad off as some would suggest. Yes PO is here and oil will be priced through the roof. But after lots of research for investment purposes, I am starting to think this may be the best time to be alive. I believe I am about to see a complete change like the industrial revolution. I am surprised how many companies out there have the technology now ready to take us off of oil. Like the 7 fuel rotory engine, (weather this is for real or not) there are companies out there that are prepared today to convert the Prius into a 100 MPG switchgrass biofuel vehicle. And the thin enough strip of PV that can be applied to office widows that will power the whole building. The curve of renewables coming online/on grid is amazing. Sure we will see $10/gallon price of gas, but other than transporting the orange from FLA to Toronto dinner tables, we should be be fine during this transition. But even if transportation vehichles remain a problem, it then becomes just a matter of time before Amtrack builds a nuclear generating building at the end of their new electric rail system running to all points of North America if even just for commercial transport. The amount of money that will be made by start up companies with the technology to transform our way of life is beond imagination. Even China is now setting enviromental objectives, that weather reached in time is still proof that even they realise things will change.
I no longer am 6 months out of my PO caused depression. I am now looking forward to all the positive changes the combination of new local renewables will take us and the economy.
So is there anyone else out there who is thinking along similar lines?

[BurnCalories]

Cue music: Debussy's "Prelude to the Afternoon of the Fawn"

[Fergus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dogf', 'S')o after a year of reading and lurking various places after hearing of PO, and thinking the sky was falling, in the last couple months I am now thinking we will not be as bad off as some would suggest. Yes PO is here and oil will be priced through the roof. But after lots of research for investment purposes, I am starting to think this may be the best time to be alive. I believe I am about to see a complete change like the industrial revolution. I am surprised how many companies out there have the technology now ready to take us off of oil. Like the 7 fuel rotory engine, (weather this is for real or not) there are companies out there that are prepared today to convert the Prius into a 100 MPG switchgrass biofuel vehicle. And the thin enough strip of PV that can be applied to office widows that will power the whole building. The curve of renewables coming online/on grid is amazing. Sure we will see $10/gallon price of gas, but other than transporting the orange from FLA to Toronto dinner tables, we should be be fine during this transition. But even if transportation vehichles remain a problem, it then becomes just a matter of time before Amtrack builds a nuclear generating building at the end of their new electric rail system running to all points of North America if even just for commercial transport. The amount of money that will be made by start up companies with the technology to transform our way of life is beond imagination. Even China is now setting enviromental objectives, that weather reached in time is still proof that even they realise things will change.
I no longer am 6 months out of my PO caused depression. I am now looking forward to all the positive changes the combination of new local renewables will take us and the economy.
So is there anyone else out there who is thinking along similar lines?

[the_red_pill]

The end is coming, maybe not as early as some doomers think, nor as late as others may wonder. Societies can take decades to fall or weeks.

To say technology will save is a pure false hope. C'mon!Technology created all the problems we have today: pollution and overpopulation. The problem with technology is that in the rush to make something available to the masses so to make a quick buck (the short term outlook), no one studies or understands in the long term just what that technology does to the world and the environment. Should we really be genetically engineering and fuckin' around with our DNA? I'm afraid some rich idiot who wants a perfect dog clone or super human kid will result in some chaotic new race (life will find a way). Remember Jurassic Park? Maybe we must wonder SHOULD we before answering COULD we?

Seemingly harmless inventions at the beginning brought great convenience but have turned out to be disastrous in the long term. Look at cars and CFCS for examples. Look at the wasted electronics crap in the trash b/c the newest gadget came out and made yours obsolete/undesirable anymore.

All renewable energy sources are nowhere near the payback of oil. Switchgrass fuel for the masses will never work unless we plow up every inch of our continent and convert it all to biofuel production (forget eating, btw). Again, just so we can drive two blocks to get that orange that was shipped 5000 miles? It is insanity?

Our population has exploded with cheap oil and now that it is beginning to fade, dying off is inevitable. It is starting already in overpopulated, poor countries where good soil has been lost due to overharvest and poor land practices and oil/gas is unaffordable.

The renewable energy resources will help, but as long as humanity is on a crusade to be a consumer and continues to reproduce out of control, these only delay the inevitable: Die off. All this touting about renewable fuels and sustainability don't mean shit as long as we are wasting/over consuming and having too many kids.

Earth can only support 2 billion people with a sustainable first world lifestyle (w/less consumption, travel, etc). There are too many people on this planet and the only way to a truly sustainable planet and system is for 4.5 billion of us to die.

Sorry, I don't share your sentiment.

[pepper2000]

There are a lot of good points here.

I think it is important to understand that life will go on with diminished oil supplies. We can, and probably will, burn all sorts of other things to keep the cars running in the short term. Environmentally it will be bad. It will also be expensive and increasingly difficult. But our economy is not helpless to oil depletion.

As far as short term issues go, I am more concerned about economics than anything else. I'm afraid that the massive personal debt, trade deficits, and federal debt the US has run up will be dangerous to our way of life in the next 5-10 years than oil depletion. There is much uncertainty on how this will play out.

In the long run, Fergus has important points. There are many ways in which our way of life is ecologically unsustainable, and fossil fuel usage is just the most pressing way. We also face mineral and metal depletion (particularly copper and uranium), groundwater depletion, global warming, loss of biodiversity and biomass, and a world population that is still rising. The 21st century will be characterized by how these problems play out.

On the other hand, I see several important reasons for hope. I think the most important thing we can hope for as a species, and that the planet can hope for, is a (re)discovery of community and spiritual values. The fact that we have traded these things for mass consumerism is at the root of our ecological crises. Also, I expect the ecological struggles of the 21st century will play out slowly enough that our species will have the opportunity to adapt culturally and technologically. If prolonged gasoline shortages are enough to change our mindset toward these values and goals, then the 21st century could be a very propserous one (though the measure of prosperity will be different than that of the 20th century). Our species' ability to adapt to the unfolding changes is probably the most important question in looking into the future.

[Gridlock]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o is there anyone else out there who is thinking along similar lines?

[NEOPO]

Dogf - to better understand why people have these feelings we must:
a. Understand that this is an addiction
b. Understand that we are addicts
c. Understand that addicts at first try to deny and then try to rationalize long before coming to awareness and realization of the truth.

So some of us have made it beyond the denial stage I see.

Baby steps

[Ancien_Opus]

For a good reason J.H. Kunstler refers to it as "The Long Emergency".

[POblues]

I don't think technology will save us. The major problem with true renewables is that ultimately they are all solar energy input at a rate fixed by the sun. Solar is very diffuse and weak relative to the dense energy content of oil (oil is highly concentrated solar energy in liquid form). Diffuse and weak energy requires a very large and expensive "funnel" to capture and refine into a useful from.

I am a mechanical engineer working for a company that manufactures geothermal / waste heat power plants (based on the Rankine cycle). Lately we get many inquiries about some waste heat stream at their factory that they are hoping will be cost effective to "tap" for electrical energy production. Alas, not so great of an economic plan. Thermodynamics set the limits of efficiency and low-grade waste heat yield low efficiency. Low efficiency means very large and expensive heat exchangers. The final cost analysis rarely lead to a purchase. I believe this is not likely to change ever with higher oil prices because higher oil prices will only lead to higher heat-exchanger prices -- hence negating any cost/benefit advantage you might have hoped for. This same "cost push" problem will exist with PV solar, Wind turbines...etc.

No way out...

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('POblues', '
')
I am a mechanical engineer . . . This same "cost push" problem will exist with PV solar, Wind turbines...etc.

No way out...

[rsch20]

Technology possibly can save us, but not in the way that most people think.

it's possible that we can and will switch to entirely renewable energy, but even if we solve P.O. we still have numerous other problems, global warming, overpopulation, natural disasters (asteroid, super volcano), black swans (techno-death, 'gray goo' etc).

read this for an understanding of the problems humans have in dealing with global threats.

Cognitive Biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks
http://www.singinst.org/Biases.pdf

so basically, in my opinion even if PO were to be 'defeated' (not as likely as you paint but possible) we still face so many other threats that we are probably doomed anyway.

But, technology can save us, just not in the form of biofuels etc, it could come from several technologies but the most likely is AI.

if we haven't collapsed before another 40 years pass then we should go through omega point, which is actually another of the grave threats hanging over us, you can't make only (or in fact any) 'good' predictions about omega point because it's just as likely to wipe us out as save us. however out of the threats we face it is the only one with a potential good side.

if it is inherently unreachable then there is zero chance (imo) that we will overcome the obstacles currently presented to us, our monkey brains are just too limited.

[mmasters]

I think technology will be a great help.

Just think, without the great gift of the internet none of us would be here talking, or able to share all this great information, strategize collectively.

It's a blessing computers are getting cheaper and cheaper too.

Five hundred bucks can get you a good powerful machine with a flatscreen monitor and all the necessary software these days.

I think we definitely have the capability to sustain more than the billion that existed pre-oil. Perhaps 2-3 billion off of the sheer knowledge advancement. Hopefully that potential will be utilized and the global information exchange will stay up long enough to serve the greater purpose. I have my doubts though, the net isn't friendly to those in power and the global infrastructure maintainance isn't trivial. Anyhow, it's a great tool that should be around for a long time.

[Chicken_Little]

I'm as guilty as anyone.

Since 2002, I have bought 3 complete computers, 3 monitors (2 CRT, 1 LCD) 3 graphics cards, 2 hard drives, 1 RAID controller, 3 sound cards, 3 mice, 2 sets of 5.1 speakers, 1 set of 2.1 speakers, 1 pair of 5.1 headphones, 4 sticks of pc 133 RAM, 4 sticks of DDR RAM and various heatsinks and fans.

The majority of it is now in landfills.

But check out my new mouse!

[zoidberg]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dogf', '
')So is there anyone else out there who is thinking along similar lines?

[FireJack]

Technology isnt some disease or something, there just advanced tools that we use. What we need is a sustainible infrastructure, hardly anyone realizes that there are limits to growth. This "end world poverty" campain is proof of people complete ignorance of what we are doing to this world and why it must stop.

If we get through the next 100 years (ie a stable society with advancing technology) I suspect there will be policies that are unthinkable now, like population limits, an economy that is not meant to continuasly grow, etc. I really like the idea of an ecology based economy, one not based on how much money you make or how much stuff you sell but how well you manage your resources and control polluting factors. Of couse we are using the cheap easily availible energy to destroy everything we depend on to survive.

[catbox]

I never thought "The End" was coming, just a different way of living...something far better on the environment really. For some of us it's simply a different way of living..... As long as people people continue down the same road, the environment will continue to die and people will become even more enslaved to system.

Not me.
I prefere to live...and have started to live like there is a BIG problem. If we keep up the current way of life...the end may come!

cb

[Luckystars]

The end is near, it is 2022 which is the end of the oil age. How bad it will get before, I don't know. Will humanity create something else, maybe.

[rwwff]

Something a lot of doomer/anarchists don't quite seem to want to get is that the wrecking of our high consumption economy isn't going to take a few months, or a few years; if it happens at all, its going to happen over the course of decades. This year, gas is $3, some folks talk like next year there won't be any oil or gas available, or alternately, we'll blissfully pay $10 / gallon and still demand the same amount of fuel. Or even, magically, if we refuse to demand the same amount of fuel, the economy will go *poof*.

Not happening.

You need to be able to ask yourself, "how am I going to feel if my friend Bob is still contentedly commuting 60 miles a day, ten years from now?" If the answer is, "swell", you're in great shape; if not, you're setting yourself up for failure, and an old age filled with regrets.

So one might ask, *when* is the end? *IF* we do not manage to deploy any high capacity renewable (true geothermal or fusion), then I think the economic "30's era crash" comes mid century, 2040 - 2060 time frame. Problem of course, is once we've "crashed" there isn't a whole lot of free energy to help the return to growth, but fortunately, it should be painfully obvious to folks at that point in time. Expect a populist like Teddy in the US, championing self sufficiency and America's Great Agricultural Heritage; etc. He'll get elected and with the problem painted so obviously, congress will act appropriately to adjust to the new situation.

Like a certain great religion with a messianic "Second Coming"; originally, the converts thought, "he's coming tomorrow."; then later, "he's coming next month.."; so much so, they altered their lives in ways which proved to be poor choices if this "Second Coming" happens 4,263 years after the resurrection of Christ. The apostles were around though, and were able to kick their tails into shape. Just so, with Peak Oil. You got lots of hangers on that are just itching for an end to civilization as we know it, tomorrow! They give a false sense of urgency, when what is really needed is patient, consistent, and determined action, based not upon "end of the world", but rather, "what is right for the world."

[Jellric]

Only difference is PO has science behind it. The other is Faith.

I'll stake the lives of me and mine on reason. Good luck with what you're doin.

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zoidberg', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dogf', '
')So is there anyone else out there who is thinking along similar lines?