In one of its forms, cognitive dissonance predicts that the greater that an individual invests his money, reputation, and effort into something, the more resistant they become to ANY information that they have made wrong choices and decisions. At best they will seek reassurance from others that they made right choices, and will read and quote supporting opinion, in order to increase their comfort level.
I will use CogD as an abbreviation.
An example: A man both drives a Hummer, and has the Dealership to sell Hummers. He has invested all his money in the business. From CogD theory I could predict he will reject the concept of Peak Oil and that the recent rise in the price of gasoline is a long term trend.
Assume two cases. If I gave him two articles:
1) A report that said gasoline prices are just a conspiracy by the oil companies to raise prices, and that increasing oil supplies are coming that will quickly return gas prices to 2001 levels,
OR
2) A financial news report that showed actual data that proved that a decline in Saudi Arabian oil outputs had just occurred and that this that proved that peak oil predictions were right, and that gasoline prices were going to double in the next year.
From CogD theory I could predict he would love article 1, quote it and email it to his friends and customers. He would trash article 2. He would lower his opinion of me, because just the act of giving him the Peak oil article showed I was "not one of his type of people".
On the other hand, if I give both articles to a person shopping for a car with no commitment one way or the other, they would probably be interested in both articles, would read them, check them out, and decide which would guide their car choice. Since they have no position or commitment they can be open minded about the issues.
Applying CogD more broadly. There are those in high places of government, industry, and academia where their whole world depends on Peak Oil not being true. They will attack any ideas, publications, or people that threaten their entrenched position. They are not malicious.
The select their own information inputs to reinforce their own positions, and ignore opposing views. By selecting our own propaganda, and who we associate with, we lower dissonance, which is that uncomfortable feeling we get when we think we may have made a BIG MISTAKE!.
One of the most famous examples of CogD were Jews in Nazi Germany. Those who had wealth, high positions in universities, and business, did not believe that Hitler was after them. They accepted stories, that Goldberg down the street must have really done some serious crime when he was arrested by the Gestapo. They believed they were OK, because they were law abiding loyal Germans.
So I predict that those supporting Peak Oil information will have a hard time explaining their "oil shortage is coming" case to a world with massive investments that assume a continuing supply of oil at moderate prices. That world will reject the messengers of Peak Oil without reading their arguments, or will use any tactic to find fault in their data. Only those who do not have a major stake in this current world, or those with the rare ability to listen to opposing views objectively will be receptive.
A broader discussion of the theory of Cognitive Dissonance is at:
http://www.afirstlook.com/archive/cogdiss.cfm
Any other examples or opposing views welcome.
