[jdmartin]

I must preface this post with the fact that some of the official numbers look dubious to me - the worldwide geology estimate was that there was 2 trillion barrels always available, and we've burned a trillion in history, and there's a trillion barrels listed as reserves, so theoretically there should be no more than token stuff to be found.

According to generally accepted mainstream numbers, there's a little more than a trillion barrels in reserves (interesting to me that according to official numbers we [the world] replaced 31 billion barrels last year, but I digress).

At our current rate, with no increase in consumption -84 MBD - we're using almost 31 billion barrels per year. If you assume that we could pump every bit of the reserves out of the ground, and that every bit of the reserves was there in the amount you're talking about, that's 38 years left of oil. Pumping at our current usage. If you bump up consumption to 100 MBD, and assume we could pump that, you're talking 30 years.

That means that in year 30, you'd pump the last drops out of the ground and there would be zero oil in year 31. Of course, we are aware that oil does pump on some kind of curve, either sharp or gradual, and that it generally seems that the wells slow down until they produce nothing of value.

Taking all of that into account, and even allowing that they find more oil that no one ever dreamed might have been out there, you're talking probably no more than 15-16 years before we are at peak oil.

So assume for sake of argument many of us are wrong and that peak won't hit for 15 years. Does anyone with any knowledge of the world really believe that in 15 years we'll be ready to begin transitioning in a serious way to another fuel source?

My entire point is this: why doesn't this basic math make a believer out of everyone that peak oil is near, even if there's disagreement on whether it's next year or 15 years from now? People who believe that peak oil is 40 or 50 years away are living in fantasyland - they just need to look at the numbers.

So your thoughts: is it wishful thinking, blissful ignorance, unbridled optimism, what?

[NEOPO]

It is pure and simple addiction.

Denial - Ignorance - Rationalization

Fear of change.

Sorry if this seems like an "Easy" answer to that which baffles so many yet it is how I see it IMHO.

You will find that people who have been exposed to PO will fall into 4 main groups.

1. denial
2. ignorance
3. rationalization
4. holy fuck!!! something must be done - no wait - no one wants to hear this!! I gotta do something myself!!! We must try to educate and help with awareness!! We gotta return to the land and grow gardens/farm!!! We must strive for sustainabilty and brace for the inevitable disregarding the promise of a techno messonic miracle!!! holy fuck!!!

Sadly, anyone in stage 4 is labeled a "doomer" by anyone in stages 1 to 3.

[NeoPeasant]

Usually when optimists are confronted with the fact that peak could not be more than 15 years based on the most wildly optimistic estimates, they will concede the point and immediately describe all the marvelous technology that will soon make peak oil irrelevant anyway.

Like THE PEAK OIL IS A CHARADE AD GUY and his fantasies of 13,000 square miles of solar focusing mirrors in Arizona making USA energy independent in a decade.

[Trindelm]

never underestimate human ingenuity.
We are ramping up to the peak right now, if alternative energy does hit its stride, as in at most 2 years we got a good chance of getting out of this OK but we're gonna be seriously humbled and hurtin' regardless.

Check out this site, it does offer some hope:

http://www.apolloalliance.org/

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Trindelm', 'n')ever underestimate human ingenuity.
We are ramping up to the peak right now, if alternative energy does hit its stride, as in at most 2 years we got a good chance of getting out of this OK but we're gonna be seriously humbled and hurtin' regardless.

Check out this site, it does offer some hope:

http://www.apolloalliance.org/

[RonMN]

There are alot of people out there who will say out loud "well, if that happens i would rather die"...

These are the people i am most afraid of...because when TSHTF these are the people who feel entitled to all YOUR food & water...i fully expect violence from people who say that...and i believe them to be the majority!

[aflurry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'n')ever underestimate human ingenuity.

[jdmartin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NeoPeasant', 'U')sually when optimists are confronted with the fact that peak could not be more than 15 years based on the most wildly optimistic estimates, they will concede the point and immediately describe all the marvelous technology that will soon make peak oil irrelevant anyway.

Like THE PEAK OIL IS A CHARADE AD GUY and his fantasies of 13,000 square miles of solar focusing mirrors in Arizona making USA energy independent in a decade.

[gnm]

Holy fuck!!! something must be done - no wait - no one wants to hear this!! I gotta do something myself!!! We must try to educate and help with awareness!! We gotta return to the land and grow gardens/farm!!! We must strive for sustainabilty and brace for the inevitable disregarding the promise of a techno messonic miracle!!! holy fuck!!!

-G
I guess thats my camp now...

shamelessly plagarized from NEOPO...

[NeoPeasant]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'T')here are alot of people out there who will say out loud "well, if that happens i would rather die"...

These are the people i am most afraid of...because when TSHTF these are the people who feel entitled to all YOUR food & water...i fully expect violence from people who say that...and i believe them to be the majority!

[RonMN]

Neo...I've kind of stopped the awareness campaign for JUST that reason. All these scoffers are going to know you have food...you have a water barel...you have and they WANT! And the only justification they will need is "I'M HUNGRY" and they'll kill you for what you have and then blame you for not having more.

And STILL they will scoff at what a tin foil hat nerd you were, and how utterly wrong you were (way back when you were still alive).

I have very little faith in the scoffers...so much so that the largest part of my prep-plan is ammo!

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'H')oly fuck!!! something must be done - no wait - no one wants to hear this!! I gotta do something myself!!! We must try to educate and help with awareness!! We gotta return to the land and grow gardens/farm!!! We must strive for sustainabilty and brace for the inevitable disregarding the promise of a techno messonic miracle!!! holy fuck!!!

-G
I guess thats my camp now...

shamelessly plagarized from NEOPO...

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NeoPeasant', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'T')here are alot of people out there who will say out loud "well, if that happens i would rather die"...

These are the people i am most afraid of...because when TSHTF these are the people who feel entitled to all YOUR food & water...i fully expect violence from people who say that...and i believe them to be the majority!

[Eli]

MD

If your plan involves building yourself a make shift hovel and living on rats and blind catfish in the sewer like Gollum. Well then, quit freaking reading my mind!

Wheres my damn tin foil hat I know I should have never taken that damn thing off. Shit, now I have to come up with a new friggin plan. Thanks a lot.


"People say that I am paranoid, but that is just cause they are out to get me."

[aldente]

The "denial" crowd, which I would guess is the vast majority of people is controlled by (1.) a believe system of immortality. The concept that a civilisation can have a rapid end point cannot be grasped under such pretext. (2.) The fact that our addicion for cheap energy is worse than that of a junkie for heroin is neither understood. And finally (3.) the daily rat race wears people out more than they admit and it takes an effort to actively do some research about our surrounding systems. As long as as an individual is not able to link the consequences of decisions made in the political and economic arena to his or her personal live - there cannot be any interest in the first place.

Step one for recovery:

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('albente', 'T')he "denial" crowd, which I would guess is the vast majority of people is controlled by (1.) a believe system of immortality. The concept that a civilisation can have a rapid end point cannot be grasped under such pretext.

[jmacdaddio]

Simply stated, non-believers just don't want to believe. A rational mind can comprehend that our entire Western civilization is possible due to cheap fuel. Since the end of cheap fuel means goodbye suburbs, goodbye to cheap holidays to the Caribbean, more energy wars where young Americans die for nothing, and no more trips to Sams Club for Hot Pockets by the pallet-load, it's not surprising that many everyday people out there shut their minds to it. It's the same mentality that allowed Bush to get re-selected, thinks that invading Iraq was a "good thing, I guess it keeps us safe from terrorists ... I have to go pick up the kids at soccer practice", and is happy because their real estate "value" has gone up by 100% over the last 36 months, allowing them to tap the equity they need to pay for vacations, braces, and SUVs. When confronted by cold hard facts that are not convenient to the agenda at hand, it's not surprising that people turn off their brain and react emotionally.

Most people are too busy on the treadmill to even comprehend what's going on. I'm glad to find on this board a group of people who "get it" in varying degrees, ranging from those among us who are hoarding ammo to biking to work, to making it a point to get out of debt and start saving. The decision to prepare for the end of cheap energy has to come from within -- converting the blind won't work until they decide to swallow the red pill.

[ECM]

The vast majority of people believe in an infinitely powerful god and divine justice. How is reality to compete with that? People will believe something that has no basis in logic and science so long as it gives them comfort while ignoring the rest.

[aldente]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('albente', 'T')he "denial" crowd, which I would guess is the vast majority of people is controlled by (1.) a believe system of immortality. The concept that a civilisation can have a rapid end point cannot be grasped under such pretext.

[FatherOfTwo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ECM', 'T')he vast majority of people believe in an infinitely powerful god and divine justice. How is reality to compete with that? People will believe something that has no basis in logic and science so long as it gives them comfort while ignoring the rest.