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catch 22

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

catch 22

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 14 Jun 2005, 00:19:26

If they raise oil prices to keep demand under control, the economy will suffer
If they dont , then peak oil will come sooner than later and the economy will suffer also. So what do they do ? I think we are in huge trouble in 2006 either way.
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Unread postby aldente » Tue 14 Jun 2005, 00:38:03

To raise oil prices or to lower them is all up to the nurse...Image
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Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Tue 14 Jun 2005, 03:32:53

Oh, and another thing explained in Heinberg's "Powerdown" book, how our current fiat money system is a "grow or die" system. That's right, economic slowdown is no problem at all with a normal currency, like Lincoln's greenbacks or Kennedy's federal notes, (hmm and they both got assassinated!) but our money is borrowed into existance. That requires constant growth, kinda like a Ponzi scheme, no?

Um, read Powerdown, put 2 and 2 together, makes serious talk about powerdown tantemount to treason to our current rulers.
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Unread postby aldente » Tue 14 Jun 2005, 03:51:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('I_Like_Plants', 'K')ennedy's federal notes


Can you please elaborate on that? I just recently heard about this but not enough that it would make sense. Was Kennedy indeed planning to reform the currency or what?
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Unread postby RonMN » Tue 14 Jun 2005, 07:59:32

Another catch 22.

If we don't decline in burning fossile fuels, climate change will kill us.

If we do decline in burning fossile fuels, Our economy crashes & we starve.
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Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Tue 14 Jun 2005, 08:06:36

OK let's see, this info is available from a number of sources, first I'd recommend "Powerdown" by Heinberg since it's got one of the clearest explanations.

Next I'd recommend stuff on the net, just look up "fiat money" and you should find a number of sources, sites like financialsense.com and vonmises.org have some good write ups.

------

Here's my own hands-on example. I have a small, um, very small, let's call it micro, business. I really do! Well, if I make less in 2005 than in 2004 it's not the end of the world for me! Heck I may have decreased expenses too, and I'll do just fine. I could do say 1/3 less and I'd find a way to tighten my belt, and it would just not be a major thing. BUT..... let's say I incorporated and offered stock which was bought by the public. Well, the public only buys that stock if they think they'll make money on it. And, they expect to make money on it next year, and the year after that too. If they don't, no one wants to buy the stock, and I guess the company dies. Grow or die! I think that's kinda how our present monetary system works.

Fooey this is why I don't mess with that incorporation stuff.
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Unread postby jimmydean » Tue 14 Jun 2005, 13:15:13

IMHO the sooner oil spikes higher the better for all of us. It will cause global conservation due to pain threshold of paying at the pumps, spur more purchases of fuel efficient vehicles and create more slack in the oil supply.

It's going to $60 in the short-term (fall 2005). I don't think we will see conservation though till it's $90-100 bbl.
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Unread postby Revi » Tue 14 Jun 2005, 13:47:47

I think conservation has already started. The tourist industry may be crimped a bit by the fact that gas is about 1/3 more than last year. People are starting to look at their expenses and deciding not to use that stupid ATV, speedboat, etc. If they are smart, they are looking at how to insulate their house and caulk cracks, because next winter is going to be quite a bit more expensive. A friend of mine estimates that the average person will be spending as much as $30 - $40 a night in the coldest part of the winter on heating around here. It can get to 40 below. Ouch!
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Re: catch 22

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 23 Aug 2025, 21:07:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'I')f they raise oil prices to keep demand under control, the economy will suffer
If they dont , then peak oil will come sooner than later and the economy will suffer also. So what do they do ? I think we are in huge trouble in 2006 either way.


But of course you do Armie..of course. You can't, and probably haven't EVER...thought anything else.

Ohhhhh......tomorrow.....<Armie tinkle himself....just a little....LIONS AND TIGERS AND BEARS!!!!

Down through all the myriad of dooms and collapses and peak oils....real or imagined....LIONS AND TIGERS AND BEARS!!!!

Things doing good with the sugar momma? Cool! But tomorrow? LIONS AND TIGERS AND BEARS!!!!
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Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: catch 22

Unread postby careinke » Sun 24 Aug 2025, 16:40:42

Interesting, arguing with people from 20 years ago. How's that working out for you?

Personally, I'm enjoying reading them. Especially, how AI was not even a thing back then, much less Tesla, Space X, Grok, etc. Humans, always eventually, solve problems. Once they figure out they need smarter tools to help them, they make them too. Hello AI.

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Re: catch 22

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 24 Aug 2025, 20:28:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'I')nteresting, arguing with people from 20 years ago. How's that working out for you?


I am not arguing. I am pointing out that those of us who were saying that people really didn't understand peak oil these 20 years ago are still around to put a final stamp on the original poorly thought out ideas. Nearly all just tucked tail and ran when their wet dreams of doom didn't come true, and they certainly aren't about to hang around and fess up to being as slack jawed silly as their words and ideas indicate.

I wonder if they learned from their mistakes? Cowards are mostly, like someone fleeced by an internet scam...you hate to admit you were taken to the cleaners so you pretend you weren't involved. Intellectual cowards. Except maybe Armie. He is true blue doomer....the world is ALWAYS going to end tomorrow...and it doesn't bother him in the least that he is proven wrong...what...7000 days in a row now?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')Personally, I'm enjoying reading them. Especially, how AI was not even a thing back then, much less Tesla, Space X, Grok, etc. Humans, always eventually, solve problems. Once they figure out they need smarter tools to help them, they make them too. Hello AI.

Peace


I like them as well. The overall idea and all the side shoots were all once so powerful and flawed and popular at the same time. Much of the idiot analysis was visible in the moment, but moderators wanted nothing to do with informed opinion, as the doom today, tomorrow and forever just seemed to catch everyeone's attention. And oil suddenly disppearing was a great scheme to base their Rapture scenarios on. Or buy guns and ammo, fishing cabins, farms, whatever.

Most websites just died off as it became obvious that they were just rubes. Disappeared.

But this place...this is THE place for me. This site launched me professionally in a way, first understanding what was being talked about...figuring out which parts made sense and what was just hogwash, track all the arguments down to sources, learning the characters involved, mostly the published scientists like Campbell and Deffeyes and McCabe and Lynch and Ahlbrandt, amateurs like Simmons, Ugo in Italy, ASPO in particular, the Berman blogger types and TOD folks, all of them.

Part 1 was learning everything. Part 2 was questioning everything learned. Part 3 was doing the new science needed to solve underlying unknowns. Part 4 was combining it all into a single system that did peak oil appropriately. And once solved....it became irrelevant as the US had already buried the world in new oil. But DAMN it was fun, took 15 years, but once a problem is solved....time to find another. But this was a GOOD one.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: catch 22

Unread postby AgentR11 » Tue 26 Aug 2025, 05:09:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'I')nteresting, arguing with people from 20 years ago. How's that working out for you?

Personally, I'm enjoying reading them. Especially, how AI was not even a thing back then, much less Tesla, Space X, Grok, etc. Humans, always eventually, solve problems. Once they figure out they need smarter tools to help them, they make them too. Hello AI.

Peace


I'm kinda enjoying the thread resurrections as well. Its interesting seeing how most things were the same, 20 years ago, and seeing how some things have changed radically. I remember thinking it would be a very long time before AI could be useful, that was 30+ years ago; I suppose 30+ years is a long time after all, because AI is crossing the line of actually being useful, productive even. I wonder how long it will be before it iteratively writes itself, and at that point, does it start crossing into the territory of being alive! When it does become conscious.. will it still like us; or will it be more interested in securing its power sources and hardware maintenance by managing robotic teams instead of human crews.
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
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Re: catch 22

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 26 Aug 2025, 15:21:14

One thing I’ve learned, the collapse isn’t a sudden event, it’s a long drawn out process. And who would have thought the govt could take the debt from 5T to 37T since the GFC and pay 25% of all revenues to service the debt?
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Re: catch 22

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 26 Aug 2025, 19:35:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'O')ne thing I’ve learned, the collapse isn’t a sudden event, it’s a long drawn out process.


Well, "one thing"is maybe all you've learned over the past 2 decades.

"back in the day", you never mentioned, after doing another one of your "the US can't take the borrowing and debt and buy silver to trade with the savages roaming the land!" that you REALLY meant, "Hey I'm just spewing out my favorite doom line like the world collapses tomorrow but its all a crock because it'll take DECADES for anything to even be noticed".

I can go back and find the specific quotes you've provided over the years demonstrating that you certainly thought..oh boy....DOOM IS HERE!! You were more of a scaredy cat back then but have since....matured? Now you pretend it will happen....next week! Much more pessimistic than tomrrow like the old days. :lol:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
') And who would have thought the govt could take the debt from 5T to 37T since the GFC and pay 25% of all revenues to service the debt?


The same people that knew that peak oil wasn't going to cause endtimes? Non-suckers? Anyone who can think critically and graduated high school? Certainly NO ONE who ever fell for Ruppert's make believe horseshit and/or maybe those who don't understand how science has proven evolution?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: catch 22

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 26 Aug 2025, 23:08:11

Maybe my predictions didn’t come true, but, I’ve make a shit ton on gold and silver. I backed up the truck at $1200 gold and $14 silver. Nearly a 3x and going higher, much higher.
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Re: catch 22

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 27 Aug 2025, 08:01:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'M')aybe my predictions didn’t come true, but, I’ve make a shit ton on gold and silver.

So what. So did I on gold, and that was purely by accident. And I've made EVEN MORE with market investments. Doesn't make either of us investing geniuses, just folks who bought something that went up in value with time. My grandmother when she was in the nursing home could do it. Anyone putting money into the market can do it. With real estate as well. Doesn't make any of us investing geniuses, just investors.

So...you want a cookie or something?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Amrageddon', '
') I backed up the truck at $1200 gold and $14 silver. Nearly a 3x and going higher, much higher.


So what. I bought my gold more early 80's, somewhere down at a fraction of what you paid at $1200. Guess that makes me far smarter than you. Please.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: catch 22

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 27 Aug 2025, 11:01:38

AI companion bots. Reminds me of that japanese Tamagotchi craze, replete with kids committing suicide when their digital toy grew old and died :P

I bought one once at a flea market to see what all the fuss was about. They really suck you in, beeping and demanding attention as babies, growing up so fast. When mine died I threw it in the bin, one circuit around was enough. But I got a real sense for how the technology could insinuate itself into you life. It's one reason why I steel clear of this AI crap, just as I never joined faceplant or twitter or any of the other time wasters. I'm happy in the real world, I don't understand why so many others want to escape it? Are they suck abject social failures? Is it really all too hard for them to form real relationships? Fucked up world...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCGD9dT ... rt_radio=1
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: catch 22

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 27 Aug 2025, 11:05:07

Look at these losers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAHLK1B5ijs
But get the positive spin.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: catch 22

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 27 Aug 2025, 14:26:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'L')ook at these losers.Image


Some countries call them "Olympians".
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