[onlooker]

As per my poll question, you can elaborate on your choice

[SeaGypsy]

The poll doesn't make sense. Collapse isn't a definitive term, it's relativistic. Without more detail of what you mean by collapse it's a meaningless question. The second option, BAU continue? Do you live under a rock?

[asg70]

It's early still but I think considering this is a global phenomenon that the money issues of who owes whom will be arbitrated to the point where the economy will be able to get back on its feet again. Assuming that happens, then BAU will resume.

[Plantagenet]

The China virus pandemic will pass and fade away, just as MERS, SARS, and other past disease threats faded away.

Then its back to BAU, assuming the Saudis and Russians jointly flooding the market with oil doesn't succeed in destroying the US fracking industry.

Cheers!

[Sys1]

I'm a doomer but I bet BAU will be back before summer.
The collapse will come from lack of oil, not lack of will.
So... not yet. Collapse will come around 2030, when oil production reach Seneca cliff.

[Newfie]

Remember all those bell curves we see of the “surge”. Globally we are somewhere on the upside of that curve. The curve width is about 3-4 months. So we have, very roughly, 2-3 months more of this before things start to settle out.

But then they will settle out. Even before that the cultures and societies will start to adapt. I don’t think we have seen the bottom of the economic surge yet, but there will be a bottom and a recovery.

I’m thinking the economic recovery will be what is called a saw tooth. A steep decline with a gradual recovery. It may well never return to the pre-virus highs, and surely not for a while. But it won’t collapse the global economy.

That will happen some day, sometime in the future, just not this day.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'T')he poll doesn't make sense. Collapse isn't a definitive term, it's relativistic. Without more detail of what you mean by collapse it's a meaningless question. The second option, BAU continue? Do you live under a rock?

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'I')'m a doomer but I bet BAU will be back before summer.
The collapse will come from lack of oil, not lack of will.
So... not yet. Collapse will come around 2030, when oil production reach Seneca cliff.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'R')emember all those bell curves we see of the “surge”. Globally we are somewhere on the upside of that curve. The curve width is about 3-4 months. So we have, very roughly, 2-3 months more of this before things start to settle out.

But then they will settle out. Even before that the cultures and societies will start to adapt. I don’t think we have seen the bottom of the economic surge yet, but there will be a bottom and a recovery.

I’m thinking the economic recovery will be what is called a saw tooth. A steep decline with a gradual recovery. It may well never return to the pre-virus highs, and surely not for a while. But it won’t collapse the global economy.

That will happen some day, sometime in the future, just not this day.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'T')he China virus pandemic will pass and fade away, just as MERS, SARS, and other past disease threats faded away.

Then its back to BAU, assuming the Saudis and Russians jointly flooding the market with oil doesn't succeed in destroying the US fracking industry.

Cheers!

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', ' ').......

And then there's weather. There's all sorts of opinions, but I've noticed the leading virologists don't seem to claim to know what happens with this thing in the summer or next fall.

[onlooker]

Collapse is not an event it is a process. And boy are we far along in that process. Socially, economically and politically. I speak in a worldview. Obviously some countries are further along than others. As for a definition or characterization of this Collapse process one can say it is the deterioration of favorable/desirable living conditions for people

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'b')oy are we far along in that process.

[Newfie]

ASG,

I don’t think that’s what Onlooker meant. But to speak for myself I too believe we are far along in the process.

Look at the LTG curve and how we have fit it. We are a long way along that curve which ends in collapse. Think of it as a rape. Are we there yet? No, but I can see the end from here.

[Cog]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'C')ollapse is not an event it is a process. And boy are we far along in that process. Socially, economically and politically. I speak in a worldview. Obviously some countries are further along than others. As for a definition or characterization of this Collapse process one can say it is the deterioration of favorable/desirable living conditions for people

[JuanP]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'C')ollapse is not an event it is a process. And boy are we far along in that process. Socially, economically and politically. I speak in a worldview. Obviously some countries are further along than others. As for a definition or characterization of this Collapse process one can say it is the deterioration of favorable/desirable living conditions for people

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')I too believe we are far along in the process.

[JuanP]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')I too believe we are far along in the process.

[evilgenius]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'I')'m a doomer but I bet BAU will be back before summer.
The collapse will come from lack of oil, not lack of will.
So... not yet. Collapse will come around 2030, when oil production reach Seneca cliff.

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JuanP', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')I too believe we are far along in the process.