[Revi]

I have been thinking about it for a long time.

I think the next few years are going to be a change.

That change could happen in a lot of ways, but business as usual is now going to become impossible.

It costs the average person about $9000 a year to keep a car going nowadays. The average person can't afford to do that at minimum wage now. How's it going to work when things get really tough?

What do you think?

[Outcast_Searcher]

1). Why does the average fast crash doomer presume they can reliably predict that the economy will "crash" within a few years?

2). If they could, why don't they just use their economic predictive powers to become incredibly rich via the markets, and use all that wealth to become the most prepped and safe people imaginable?

3). If they could, why are they consistently wrong, about the short term timing? (I am also pessimistic about the long run, but fully admit I don't know if long run means 20 years or 200 or more. There are a LOT of moving parts, some new (AGW). The complexity is almost incomprehensible. Thus predicting THAT is almost certainly pure hubris, which is why the markets are quite efficient (and thus very hard to meaningfully beat over time).

4). I realize discussing this is a "hobby" for the fast crash doomer crowd. I suppose I just wonder why time spent more productively, like in prepping or earning (another form of prepping, IMO -- I was far better prepped for retirement at 48 than most people at 65/70, and it wasn't by accident, so that aspect is something I gave a tremendous amount of thought and effort over my career).

[Plantagenet]

Most post WWII recessions were caused by a spike in oil prices.

The great recession in 2008-9 was caused by greatest spike in oil prices ever.

I don't see an economic crash coming as long as we are in an oil glut and oil prices are low. But if oil prices spike up then look out---the conditions for an economic collapse will be back.

Cheers!

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'M')ost post WWII recessions were caused by a spike in oil prices.

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')But there is no correction for overpopulation and underearth.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')ou sound like ennui now and contradicted yourself outcaste. First a 'yup' that recessions are caused by high oil. But then a 'nope' the Greatest Recession of All Times was caused by a few bad mortgages in the Inland Empire. You need to get your own story straight.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') have been thinking about it for a long time.

I think the next few years are going to be a change.

[SumYunGai]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'M')ore and more like ennui. Look where that got him?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'M')ore and more like ennui. Look where that got him?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'M')ore and more like ennui. Look where that got him?

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'M')ost post WWII recessions were caused by a spike in oil prices.

The great recession in 2008-9 was caused by greatest spike in oil prices ever.

[Newfie]

OK guys.

Keep to topic, no taking unwarranted swipes at one another.

Smart ass comments tend to fall on fertile ground and sprout more of the same.

So if everyone keeps a civil and respectful tounge we can peacefully argue facts and points of view.

[yellowcanoe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')The fact of the matter is that there is no consensus about caused the 2008-9 recession. Some think it was high oil prices, others the US housing boom collapse, others Credit-Default bond collapses, other Lehman brothers, other the EU economic crisis and Greece and the PIGS, and others have still more theories.

Cheers!