[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week to the highest level since early April, highlighting a weak labor market and the fragile economic recovery.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 479,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That compared to market expectations for a drop to 455,000.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38572868

[TreeFarmer]

It seems that unemployment benefits end, or at least seem to end, at 99 weeks. Also, people are able to drop off of the unemployment rolls if they are not actively seeking work. However, they still have to eat so perhaps the food stamp roll is a good measure of what is going on in the country.

TF

[eXpat]

Ohhhhhhh! What a surprise!!! The only one surprised by this is Oily and maybe his herd of cornys

[the48thronin]

next all of the above and more!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', '8')O Ohhhhhhh! What a surprise!!! The only one surprised by this is Oily and maybe his herd of cornys

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')nitial unemployment claims are basically going to go sideways for the next ~2 years. They might decline, but it will be small and gradual.

[copious.abundance]

^
Actually, it's not necessarily "bad" - though to be sure it could be better. If you look at the history of unemployment claims, you'll discover they typically peak at some point during a recession, then decline pretty rapidly (as they did for the last 2/3 of last year), then at some point around 1/4-1/2 the way down from the peak, they hit a brick wall and go sideways for quite a while. Sometimes they even go back up a bit.

This time around, by New Years they had fallen about 1/3 the way down from their peak, and have gone sideways ever since. So, what's happening is fairly typical.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'T')his time around, by New Years they had fallen about 1/3 the way down from their peak, and have gone sideways ever since. So, what's happening is fairly typical.

[copious.abundance]

^
Believe it or not, but retail wasn't a big job-growth sector in the 00's. Here's a bit of info:
http://www.nrf.com/modules.php?name=Pages&sp_id=1243
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')rom 1998 to 2008, retailing added almost 750,000 jobs to the U.S. economy, contributing to U.S. job growth.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'B')elieve it or not, but retail wasn't a big job-growth sector in the 00's.

[copious.abundance]

^
During the previous episodes of sideways initial jobless claims, there had still been job and GDP growth. In fact, typically when jobless claims first had hit the sideways pattern was when overall job growth transitioned from negative to positive. I'm not sure of the reason for that, but that's the way it tends to behave.

I'll do a little academic exercize here, just for the heck of it.

My "favorite" parallel to the recent recession was the 1974-75 recession and subsequent recovery.

Go here and select 1973-1978 for the years:
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charte ... /day-icusa
^
Notice that initial jobless claims peaked early in '75, then hit the wall I was speaking of at the beginning of '76. They even went up a bit during '76, but in general went sideways for 3 years.

So, what else happened to the economy from 1976-78? Was everything doom and gloom just because jobless claims went sideways?

No, we actually had a decent recovery during that time.

For GDP growth, go here and select 1976-78:
http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Tab ... 0&Freq=Qtr
^
The results were:
Q1 1976: +9.4%
Q2 1976: +3.0%
Q3 1976: +2.0%
Q4 1976: +2.9%
Q1 1977: +4.7%
Q2 1977: +8.2%
Q3 1977: +7.3%
Q4 1977: -0.1%
Q1 1978: +1.4%
Q2 1978: +16.7% (!!!)
Q3 1978: +4.0%
Q4 1978: +5.4%

Not bad! For payroll growth, go here and again select 1976-78. Here are the results:

1/76: +489K new jobs
2/76: +311K
3/76: +232K
4/76: +244K
5/76: +18K
6/76: +65K
7/76: +170K
8/76: +158K
9/76: +188K
10/76: +13K
11/76: +332K
12/76: +211K

1/77: +244K new jobs
2/77: +295K
3/77: +404K
4/77: +339K
5/77: +359K
6/77: +399K
7/77: +348K
8/77: +238K
9/77: +458K
10/77: +262K
11/77: +379K
12/77: +235K

1/78: +187K new jobs
2/78: +353K
3/78: +513K
4/78: +702K
5/78: +346K
6/78: +442K
7/78: +254K
8/78: +276K
9/78: +137K
10/78: +336K
11/78: +437K
12/78: +283K

Sorry for taking up so much room, but as you can see, again, this isn't bad at all! You've got a soft spot in the middle of '76, but other than that it was pretty good.

Point being, just because jobless claims go sideways for 3 years, does not mean the economy is doing bad.

[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'P')oint being, just because jobless claims go sideways for 3 years, does not mean the economy is doing bad.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'P')oint being, just because jobless claims go sideways for 3 years, does not mean the economy is doing bad.

[evilgenius]

One problem with looking at past payroll growth is that benefits have been included in that figure. Americans have been handed no significant real increases in pay measured as actual pay, but instead increases measured as pay and benefits. The good thing about this is that at least the health care sector remains afloat this far into such a bad time. The bad part is that in order for your average American to 'keep up with the Joneses' they had to go into debt to do it because their actual pay was not adequate. If the inflation fighters at the Fed had been just a little bit more on the side of workers during the last forty years the situation might be a little different, but it is what it is. There is not enough surplus investment out there to get anything started in the private sector. Innovators are going to have to find whole new ways of not just marketing, but of financing and risk taking in order to get any kind of cell activity started that will take. Americans have been very familiar with innovation, enough to make a go of it I think. What I worry about is the lack of skill that has developed in the general populace as real skill has migrated to concentration rather than diffusion in society and society, in general, has chosen to embrace an anti-elitist stance for cultural and coping reasons.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 's')ociety, in general, has chosen to embrace an anti-elitist stance for cultural and coping reasons.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')ou have failed miserably. When will you give it up?

[MarkJ]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne problem with looking at past payroll growth is that benefits have been included in that figure. Americans have been handed no significant real increases in pay measured as actual pay, but instead increases measured as pay and benefits.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MarkJ', '
')Working conditions are much better in many industries as well.