by dorlomin » Mon 16 Feb 2009, 20:09:06
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', 'D')oes anyone know if this lot is in Roubinis $3.7 trillion in total that he has been giving as a figure for total world losses? 10% of $1.7 trillion would only make a fraction of that.
I'm pretty sure Roubini's calculations are only for debt on USA books, not every last debtor nation out there.
Which of course brings the inevitable question up, who extended all this credit to all these debtor nations? Far as I can tell, the only creditor nations here are the Chinese, the Japanese and the Saudis. They apparently leveraged at 10:1 or more extending credit to everyone else. So as everyone else can't pay their bills, they also are insolvent. The Japanese "recession" BTW is outpacing ours by a long shot, their prodcutivity has fallen off the map.
So we pretty much are looking at the same kind of economic collapse that preceeded WWII, just on a vastly larger scale this time, with no vast sources of Oil easily tapped to get the engine going again. Its really going to be interesting seeing how they attempt to cobble together some new kind of Bretton Woods agreement here to reboot. In the short term here, Goobermints are going to be falling about as fast as they are formed. It will be interesting also to see how long Obama can maintain control here.
Reverse Engineer
I hold the highly controversial idea that the best way out of this crisis is an international minimum wage for key industries like hard rock mining, metal smelting, car manufacturing and the like. If workers in those industries can get decent wages they can spend the money localy and become consumers localy. This whole crisis was preceded by a period of wage deflation in heavy industries as it all 'offshored' from the west. Deflation of cost of manufacturing and cheap credit papered over the cracks but eventualy the loss of purchasing power of the upper working and lower middle class told and people had no money to spend. Bretton Woods was a very specific solution to the global situation of 1945. The solution to our current problem is rather different (IMHO).
As for debtors, well our pensions are debtors to the US and other western Economies. Pension funds buy gilts, treasuries and all other manner of governement debt as do other institutions. Although states are in debt, they are in debt to our savings. I thin people have over analysed the foreign component of the debt.