[Andrew_S]

A piece of positive news on the food front for a change:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ollowing several years of declining harvests, the world’s farmers reaped a record 2.316 billion tons of grain in 2007.1 (See Figure 1.) Despite this jump of 95 million tons, or about 4 percent, over the previous year, commodity analysts estimate that voracious global demand will consume all of this increase and prevent governments from replenishing cereal stocks that are at their lowest level in 30 years.2

The global grain harvest has nearly tripled since 1961, during a time when world population doubled.3 As a result, the amount of grain produced per person grew from 285 kilograms in 1961 to a peak of 376 kilograms in 1986.4 (See Figure 2.) In recent decades, as the growth in grain production has matched population growth, per capita production has hovered around 350 kilograms.5
<snip>
Although high crop prices have been pushing farmers around the world to plant more land in grains in recent years, a more powerful engine for the record output was a boost in average yields, the amount of grain harvested per hectare. For the last decade, grain yields have surpassed 3 tons—nearly three times the level in 1960.11 Near-perfect weather in major growing areas as well as an estimated 5 percent jump in world fertilizer use helped farmers increase yields.12

[steam_cannon]

These are certainly trends to keep an eye on. It's getting interesting out there.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Grain Harvest Sets Record, But Supplies Still Tight
http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5539

"Near-perfect weather in major growing areas as well as an estimated 5 percent jump in world fertilizer use helped farmers increase yields."

"...voracious global demand will consume all of this increase and prevent governments from replenishing cereal stocks that are at their lowest level in 30 years."

Global cereal stocks were expected to stand at 318 million tons by the close of the 2007 season, equivalent to about 14 percent of annual consumption.

[RedStateGreen]

God bless the farmers of the world. Without them we'd be in deeper trouble than we already are.

[Clouseau2]

"kilograms of grain per person" is a misleading statistic, since more and more people around the world have switched to a meat based diet since 1960, which means it takes more kilograms of grain to make the same number of calories.

[MrBill]

Obviously, the problem is population growth, not grain production or improving diets as incomes rise.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]The global grain harvest has nearly tripled since 1961, during a time when world population doubled.3 As a result, the amount of grain produced per person grew from 285 kilograms in 1961 to a peak of 376 kilograms in 1986.4 (See Figure 2.) In recent decades, as the growth in grain production has matched population growth, per capita production has hovered around 350 kilograms.5

[alokin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'Obviously, the problem is population growth, not grain production')
That's true, arable soil is not endless and we can't feed more every year.
The international politics should really take this topic more serious.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alokin', '[')code]Obviously, the problem is population growth, not grain production[/code]
That's true, arable soil is not endless and we can't feed more every year.
The international politics should really take this topic more serious.

[sparky]

.



To Clouseau 2 ,
of course it's misleading , if one think of it as direct personal consumption ,
beside the ethanol drain , , the cattle feed switching back and forth from soya to coarse grain , various uses such as starch production , there is also the fact that a lot of Asia protein consumption is switched from rice to wheat , pizza and pasta are conquering coastal china , northern Chinese have dropped the awful millet , and eat wheat product and potatoes now

still , the total aggregate wheat + rice + corn + potatoes in this order give you the full food picture ,

Keep in mind that the harvest this year is good , the june 08 may09 forecast are so far excellent
the basic floor support will be the energy price and the weather

For the mid term future , the production will increasingly struggle to follow consumption ,
in a set of bad years , the food budget of the richs will rise a few percent from 15% overall , depressing arbitrary spending ,
for the poors the food budget will rise from 50% to ~ 60% in spite of degrading the quality ( bye bye meat products everyday )
it would crushing any arbitrary spending at all
for the truly poor , those with a food budget around 80% overall ,
dread famine , the old enemy will come visiting again ,to take its toll

this balancing act would of course depend on an increasing acreage and increasing oil consumption ,


failing that , we would be back to the old way , population control by starving the poor ,
the poor coming closer and closer to our front door


.