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Oil Futures. Ouch!

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Oil Futures. Ouch!

Unread postby mulroos » Mon 05 Nov 2007, 23:25:09

“Options calls of strikes well over $100 a barrel are being bought by the thousands,” said Nauman Barakat of Macquarie Futures in New York.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d5a8517a-8bdd ... ck_check=1

The open interest in Nymex December 2010 call options at $100 a barrel rose on Monday to 24,903 contracts, double the level of the start of the year. The open interest at $120, $160 and even $250 a barrel is also rising although from a significantly lower level.

Denial, Panic, Fear.
It's funny. On MSNBC tonight they were trying to convince the "sh"people that the banking industry will be just fine. They haven't even talked about the 8 Trillion dollar (8Xs the world GDP)
market. All based on Adjustable rate mortgages. *see the credit suise chart. A nightmare.

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/statistics-20 ... edule.html

Calling the new market "an $8 trillion opportunity," Geltner offered his views on short-term price expectations, how profiles will likely change as liquidity increases, the impacts of new market entrants, sustainability of the current market structure, and global market shifts.

http://www.imakenews.com/mitcre/e_artic ... ?x=b11,0,w

The derivatives market is where they take a 200,000 dollar loan and leverage it to God knows what until it is, as Warren Buffet declared, FINANCIAL WMDs.

Why do I know what I now Know? Why couldn't I have at least had the last few years as an ignorant?

Sold my house in N.Y.. Moved to Fl.. Doing Microsoft BI for a company down here. Bought a 30' sailboat. In the process of refitting and accumulating supplies: solar, wind, water maker, can store several years of freezed dried.

It' been a while since I have posted, but I have been busy and am almost done. South America during hurricane season, Bahamas from Dec. to June. Perhaps trading routes will be established again.

I have read this board almost every day since I read Paul Roberts "The End OF Oil" and began researching Peak Oil. I have read most posts of interest.

This evening I watched Hardball with Chris Mathews. He had this young dreamer on talking about Global warming and being green. She stated that she had organized a 6000 people march for awareness. Pat Buchanan was also on the show. He said something very telling of one generation to another. While laughing at her he stated that when he was in the Nixon White House they had marches: on month 500,000, the next 350,000.
I remember those times. The coffins coming into Dover Delaware were on the news almost every night. We watched young men die on TV nightly, some from the neighborhoods we all lived in.
The reason there are no mass protests and revolution like the when the Republican convention in Miami, and the Democratic convention in Chicago were held is because WE ARE SOFT AND MATERIALISTIC.

How many of you remember those times. My dad had a loaded shotgun at the door due to the riots in Wilmington Delaware; the first city to enforce busing in the U.S.. These were bad times and many people were giving their lives and dying.

Friends we are on the precipice. It is happening now.
A blog I frequent is:
http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/
This fellow has been calling the housing bust and resulting financial debacle for years. He has been harassed and ridiculed for years, but he has been proven right.

This web cite is being proven right NOW.

I won't be posting perhaps for another while as I finish my preparations.

Remember choose steel rather than gold.
He who has steel has the woman, food, and then all the gold.

Good Luck.
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Re: Oil Futures. Ouch!

Unread postby roccman » Mon 05 Nov 2007, 23:36:47

Excellent post mulroos!

I have been reading and posting at housing panic since Keith started it up...

I don't post much there now - from time to time Keith sends me a, "you gotta be loving this" em.

Stay kewl and good luck with your preps.
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: Oil Futures. Ouch!

Unread postby Carlhole » Tue 06 Nov 2007, 01:08:29

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Re: Oil Futures. Ouch!

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 06 Nov 2007, 01:25:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')Options calls of strikes well over $100 a barrel are being bought by the thousands,” said Nauman Barakat of Macquarie Futures in New York.


This is not necessarily a sign of 'speculators pushing up the price of oil'.

Those that want to short oil frequently buy call options just above their selling price to limit their risk exposure in the event they are wrong.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: Oil Futures. Ouch!

Unread postby pup55 » Tue 06 Nov 2007, 01:28:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')re being bought by the thousands


And to further embellish DP's point: for every buyer, there is a seller. There are an equal number of people in the market that are writing these options, 3 years out, convinced that they will never be filled because they expect the price to go down.
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Re: Oil Futures. Ouch!

Unread postby Pfish » Tue 06 Nov 2007, 01:45:42

Uhhh...I am missing something. All I see on the NY Stock Exchange is a downward trend. Oil trading for $70 in 2011.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/CL.html
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Re: Oil Futures. Ouch!

Unread postby TreebeardsUncle » Tue 06 Nov 2007, 02:36:23

The traders will be suprised when Mexico oil exports fall off over the next 5 years. There will be many good buying opportunities. Expect 11/07 - 1/06 will be a good time to get into oil companies stocks again, not the majors but the drillers and some other servicers.

g
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Re: Oil Futures. Ouch!

Unread postby aflurry » Tue 06 Nov 2007, 12:47:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')re being bought by the thousands


And to further embellish DP's point: for every buyer, there is a seller. There are an equal number of people in the market that are writing these options, 3 years out, convinced that they will never be filled because they expect the price to go down.


good point. this is more about volitility than expectations of oil shortages.

looking at trading patterns for your news about world events is about the same as looking at tarot cards. people see patterns in chaos, it's how the mind works. if you want to see devils you will see devils. but traders are no smarter that you or me, and a herd of traders is no smarter than one individual trader.


also, aren't they are usually buying on models with automatic hedge strategies set up? they probably mostly have no opinion on the expected price of oil per se.
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Re: Oil Futures. Ouch!

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Tue 06 Nov 2007, 13:54:44

There is something else to remember about traders here which I think is very important.

You will get this If you can corner one and talk with them for a bit, I have.

Their focus is extremely short term, hours, days and rarely a week or so ahead. After that they dont care, they dont care to know about long term or why. All they care about is how do I make money in the next few minutes or hours. They start over every day with this same philosophy. I doubt frankly there are many energy traders at all who really know what is up with our current oil and NG problems.

They dont need to waste the time on research in order to make money. They use computers and programs to track trends and work models based on minute to minute moves. They play the immediate moves and try to use timing and psychology to make money.

They are a very bad group to watch for what you want to know about the future. All those long term positions will change, and I predict rather dramatically too.
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Re: Oil Futures. Ouch!

Unread postby KevO » Tue 06 Nov 2007, 14:08:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'T')here is something else to remember about traders here which I think is very important.

You will get this If you can corner one and talk with them for a bit, I have.

Their focus is extremely short term, hours, days and rarely a week or so ahead. After that they dont care, they dont care to know about long term or why. All they care about is how do I make money in the next few minutes or hours. They start over every day with this same philosophy. I doubt frankly there are many energy traders at all who really know what is up with our current oil and NG problems.

They dont need to waste the time on research in order to make money. They use computers and programs to track trends and work models based on minute to minute moves. They play the immediate moves and try to use timing and psychology to make money.

They are a very bad group to watch for what you want to know about the future. All those long term positions will change, and I predict rather dramatically too.


Absolutely spot on. The gambler looks at the horses racing no further than this week. He won't consider a race three months off.
That's how the stock market works.
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Re: Oil Futures. Ouch!

Unread postby mulroos » Tue 06 Nov 2007, 23:42:17

I posted yesterday, after a while.
I have read this and other cites and after much research have unfortunately concluded that the information I have read is correct.
Yet, there seem to be many “POSERS” that confound me.

DantestPeak said, “A sign of speculators pushing up the price of oil”.
Pup55 said, ‘ for every buyer, there is a seller.”
Alfurry said, “ this is more about volatility than expectations of oil shortages.”
Computer trader, statistical models

OIL IS AT 97.00 A BARELL!
Are you too intellectually proud?

Be honest. Those who pose as financial and intellectual geniuses, do you still live in your mother’s basements and play some suede game on this board? Have you really started to prepare?

I became aware several years ago, and am almost ready.

If you can’t say that, peruse this board and don’t post.

When I taught, English Lit, I came across many who I knew were smarter than me or were pretending. This is how I knew:
POSER
• KNOW ALL THE FACTS
• I HAVE NO ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS EXCEPT RECITED FACTS
• TRIED TO PROVE BY BLUSTERING
• DIDN’T GRADUATE
• I COULD’NT POSSIBLY BE WRONG BECAUSE I HAVE LOCATED A FACT THAT COULD'NT POSSIBLY PROVEN WRONG.
STUDENT
• ASKED QUESTIONS
• QUESTIONED ANSWERS
• IT WAS “OK” TO BE WRONG
• WERE NOT AFRAID TO RETHINK
• I AM NOT THE RESULT OF WHO I AM NOW, BECAUSE TOMORROW I MAY BE PROVEN WRONG.

If you have been reading this board for over a year and you are not out of debt, and have substantially begun to prepare, DO NOT POST AGAIN. There is no financial planning; gold investment or anything else.
Be sure, I will not trade you anything in the future for a piece of worthless metal.
Do you have a piece of stout rope?
Stop posing. Stop posting. Start doing.
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Re: Oil Futures. Ouch!

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Wed 07 Nov 2007, 00:40:21

Bullets, you cannot have enough bullets!
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Re: Oil Futures. Ouch!

Unread postby DantesPeak » Wed 07 Nov 2007, 01:51:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'B')ullets, you cannot have enough bullets!


Better duck. :)
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: Oil Futures. Ouch!

Unread postby Jack » Wed 07 Nov 2007, 09:16:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'B')ullets, you cannot have enough bullets!


Well said! Especially 5.56 and 7.62 NATO.

Apropos of your comment with regard to traders, it's important to remember that there are a variety of option and option/futures strategies that can distort the open interest numbers. For example, one might buy the futures contract and sell the option based on the balance between the premium for the option versus the perceived likelihood of a price advance on the underlying futures contract. And, of course, various spreads and straddles could be put on with different strike prices and expiration dates.

I remember sugar, back in the good old days. 1973? Something like that. Anyway, it went from 3 cents to 60 cents - then it went back to 3 cents. Pork bellies had some similar action, with limit moves locking in the shorts.

Anyway, there's no telling how high a runaway market will go - but as speculation (not just by traders, but by buyers and sellers) acts, it does affect the markets. And after the thing hits some undefinable high, it will pull back for a time. And all the sheeple will sigh with relief, because the problem is solved, or so they think.

In the meantime, ammo is good. So is 550 paracord and a good blade. Or three. 8)
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Re: Oil Futures. Ouch!

Unread postby aflurry » Thu 08 Nov 2007, 15:13:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mulroos', 'D')O NOT POST AGAIN.


mulroos, you were an english lit teacher? i am incredulous because your english is opaque.

but you must know that very often in discussion, not every question has a question mark after it. just relax with all the poser accusations. this is a discussion board and if nobody posts it wouldn't be much of one.

How do you figure Pup55's comment to be "posing." Is it untrue? Tell DantesPeak or Pup55 why you disagree instead of having a tantrum.

At what price were those $250 call options purchased? I would guess, very cheaply. Have you ever bought a lottery ticket? Did you run around telling everyone "I bought a lottery ticket! I'm rich!"

finally, you have completed your preparations? congratulations.

i have not, because i do not believe i know what to prepare for yet. i am out of debt. aside from that, i have yet to hear one specific recommendation that could not just as likely work against me. and that goes double for the "hoard ammunition" recommendation. i hope i can remain flexible come what may, but perhaps i will just take my lumps with the rest of the sheeple.

so now, who is the poser and who is the student?
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