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IMF: Dollar Undervalued?

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IMF: Dollar Undervalued?

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Mon 08 Oct 2007, 05:57:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')anaging directors of the International Monetary Fund are traditionally circumspect when talking about currency values. But with only a few weeks left in the job, Rodrigo Rato is unusually forthright.

“Right now the dollar is undervalued” on many measures used by the IMF to evaluate currencies, he says, though he adds that it was “certainly overvalued a few years ago”.

His remarks in an interview with the FT follow the sharp decline in the dollar against the euro and some other freely floating currencies in the aftermath of the credit squeeze and Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

Mr Rato – who hands over the leadership of the IMF to Dominique Strauss-Kahn at the end of this month – says these financial and economic developments create a “new scenario for global imbalances” that policymakers need to “keep an eye on”.


FT.com
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: IMF: Dollar Undervalued?

Unread postby Concerned » Mon 08 Oct 2007, 07:32:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')anaging directors of the International Monetary Fund are traditionally circumspect when talking about currency values. But with only a few weeks left in the job, Rodrigo Rato is unusually forthright.

“Right now the dollar is undervalued” on many measures used by the IMF to evaluate currencies, he says, though he adds that it was “certainly overvalued a few years ago”.

His remarks in an interview with the FT follow the sharp decline in the dollar against the euro and some other freely floating currencies in the aftermath of the credit squeeze and Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

Mr Rato – who hands over the leadership of the IMF to Dominique Strauss-Kahn at the end of this month – says these financial and economic developments create a “new scenario for global imbalances” that policymakers need to “keep an eye on”.


FT.com


So what he is saying is that the much vaunted "market" is wrong.

Same deal with CDO's right? I central banks pumping all that liquidity the "market" is wrong again?

This is just getting interesting and we are on the plateau of the highest oil production ever. When the energy decline sets in things should get real interesting.
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Re: IMF: Dollar Undervalued?

Unread postby dorlomin » Mon 08 Oct 2007, 20:45:58

Interest rates go down. The dollar goes down.

What am I missing?




The chaps bio FYI
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodrigo_Rato
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Re: IMF: Dollar Undervalued?

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 09 Oct 2007, 05:22:20

I think reading the article that his comments are directed more at EUR/USD rather than the USD is under-valued against a host of other currencies, but that is my interpretation?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')r Rato clearly regards concern over the dollar-euro exchange rate as only part of a more complex global story. This also involves currencies such as China’s renminbi that are formally or informally tied to the dollar and therefore fall when it falls.

He says that, “independent of the value of the dollar”, it would be “in the interest of China” to adopt a more flexible exchange rate to help it manage its domestic economy and that this case is “becoming stronger”.

More currency flexibility from China would also help its neighbours, he says. Many emerging economies, particularly in Asia, are afraid to allow their currencies to appreciate against the dollar for fear of losing competitive advantage to China.

The outgoing IMF chief also hints at unease about Japan’s yen, which remains weak in part because of ultra-low interest rates. “Normalisation of monetary policy in Japan is an important medium-term objective.”


The USD is not over-valued if you look at 'those other' measures such as purchasing power parity (PPP) or on a trade weighted basis. Clearly the USD is suffering from large current account imblances and worries about slower growth from falling levels of employment (or new job creation), rising inflation and lower productivity. The narrowing interest spread vis a vie the euro only exacerbates that perceived weakness. That is what FX traders are selling.

But those imbalances cannot correct unless OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers as well as Asian exporters do not allow their currencies to appreciate based on trade flows as well as US consumers cutting back on imports and saving more.

Unfortunately, for the US and the world, cuts in US interest rates now just tend to make these imbalances worse as it fuels inflation and discourages saving, while doing very little to discourage consumption.

As a knee jerk reaction to unblock credit markets it may have been the right decision at the time for the Fed, but it will make global imbalances worse not help alleviate them. That sovereign wealth funds are turning their back on debt markets and looking to diversify into non-USD assets and into foreign equities is evidence that the status quo is no longer acceptable from a risk-reward persective for them.

This is not the market panic that we saw in credit markets in August, but a deliberate diversification strategy by these sovereign funds. And one with long-term implications. Then it matters little what officials, like those at the IMF, say.
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Re: IMF: Dollar Undervalued?

Unread postby Kingcoal » Tue 09 Oct 2007, 13:24:20

Over valued compared to what, other paper currencies? I would say that gold, oil, NG, copper, etc, are undervalued. That's the real problem in my opinion. As long as the powers that be can keep those commodities artificially undervalued, the whole fiat currency game can continue. Theoretically, a house which sells today for $500K could be $2,000,000 in a couple of years. I remember houses in my neck of the woods selling for $25K and the same house now sells for $400K. It's all just paper, no scratch that, paper is to expensive for that, it's really just all bits flying around cyberspace. Sure, the rich get richer and the poor get a little poorer, but it really is only as long as oil is cheap. As we run out of oil, the game goes completely nuts; currencies become worthless very quickly.

I don't care if it's the Yen, Euros, Loonies, etc, they all depend on the status quo of cheap oil to power the machine.
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