by MrBill » Tue 09 Oct 2007, 05:22:20
I think reading the article that his comments are directed more at EUR/USD rather than the USD is under-valued against a host of other currencies, but that is my interpretation?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')r Rato clearly regards concern over the dollar-euro exchange rate as only part of a more complex global story. This also involves currencies such as China’s renminbi that are formally or informally tied to the dollar and therefore fall when it falls.
He says that, “independent of the value of the dollar”, it would be “in the interest of China” to adopt a more flexible exchange rate to help it manage its domestic economy and that this case is “becoming stronger”.
More currency flexibility from China would also help its neighbours, he says. Many emerging economies, particularly in Asia, are afraid to allow their currencies to appreciate against the dollar for fear of losing competitive advantage to China.
The outgoing IMF chief also hints at unease about Japan’s yen, which remains weak in part because of ultra-low interest rates. “Normalisation of monetary policy in Japan is an important medium-term objective.”
The USD is not over-valued if you look at 'those other' measures such as purchasing power parity (PPP) or on a trade weighted basis. Clearly the USD is suffering from large current account imblances and worries about slower growth from falling levels of employment (or new job creation), rising inflation and lower productivity. The narrowing interest spread vis a vie the euro only exacerbates that perceived weakness. That is what FX traders are selling.
But those imbalances cannot correct unless OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers as well as Asian exporters do not allow their currencies to appreciate based on trade flows as well as US consumers cutting back on imports and saving more.
Unfortunately, for the US and the world, cuts in US interest rates now just tend to make these imbalances worse as it fuels inflation and discourages saving, while doing very little to discourage consumption.
As a knee jerk reaction to unblock credit markets it may have been the right decision at the time for the Fed, but it will make global imbalances worse not help alleviate them. That sovereign wealth funds are turning their back on debt markets and looking to diversify into non-USD assets and into foreign equities is evidence that the status quo is no longer acceptable from a risk-reward persective for them.
This is not the market panic that we saw in credit markets in August, but a deliberate diversification strategy by these sovereign funds. And one with long-term implications. Then it matters little what officials, like those at the IMF, say.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.