[Byron100]

I've been tumbling this idea in my head for a while, so I thought I'd post a forum topic about it.

With the Grand Convergence about to crash down on top of us (Peak Oil, economic depression, ecological calamity), I think many of us can agree that work (i.e., what most of us call "jobs" here in the USA), is going to be awfully tough to come by. If you thought that 33% unemployment in the 1930's was bad, I can assure that it's going to be far worse this time around.

The reason for this is quite simple: The vast majority of jobs people perform today does not produce anything of value whatsoever. Wal-Mart stockers don't produce anything, Realtors don't produce anything, Wall Street traders don't produce anything, and used car salesmen don't produce anything. These so-called "jobs" are the result of cheap energy and the inherent wealth that we have floating around...I guess people have an innate need to keep busy...LOL.

So what happens to all of these jobs once the depression hits and we no longer have wealth in the form of cheap energy? Imagine every big-box retail store closing, every chain restaurant, the end of all tourism, and the collapse of all credit and finance in the USA once the great "panic" sets in, when people know for sure that our current way of life is doomed forever. I don't think it'd take too long for unemployment to quickly soar past 50% once all economic collapse sets in, which would basically mean an idle America.

So what happens then? Does the government run up a deficit of 100% of GDP or more and give everyone a min income to live on? Erase every dollar of outstanding debt? Or does the government create the greatest public works projects ever put on by mankind in a desperate effort to put people back to work? Or do they just let everyone fend for themselves and let America burn as it slowly starves? Or go communist and take away any remaining individual and corporate wealth and make that last as long as possible to keep the masses fed and sheltered?

I'd like for this discussion to be wide open...let me know what you guys think will happen once the jobs go away and America (and the world for that matter) is at "idle."

[dsula]

There's always work. Whoever says there's no work is either blind or lazy. Can you imagine how much hands are needed to plow your lawn, or the farm fields? Take the produce to town by horse? Chop down trees to make simple tools, or fire-wood? Sweep your shop entrance without the gas powered blowers? Pump water from your well by hand ?

[neocone]

Basically look at Jamaica or any "upper" third world entity and you will see the worldwide future.

Also historically the 9 to 5 workday is the climax of the industrial age, at the cusp of the very short lived information age period (1981-2001 with the .com superpeak).

The human brain is made for chaotic schedules and diversified activities requiring practical thinking.

The cubicle farm is dead and it doesn't know it yet...

[Heineken]

I agree with dsula. There will be more work than ever. But it will be very different work

[Byron100]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', 'T')here's always work. Whoever says there's no work is either blind or lazy. Can you imagine how much hands are needed to plow your lawn, or the farm fields? Take the produce to town by horse? Chop down trees to make simple tools, or fire-wood? Sweep your shop entrance without the gas powered blowers? Pump water from your well by hand ?

[seldom_seen]

It is not enough to be industrious; so are the ants. What are you industrious about? ~Thoreau

Much of our busi-ness is much ado about nothing. It keeps us occupied so we don't have to think about the meaninglessness of industrial culture.

When european settlers moved out west. They thought the Indians were lazy. The Indians though had lots of free time. They were able to meet their survival needs with plenty of free time left over.

This is the same free time that industrial civilization has been promising for decades with its labor saving devices. The free time never materialized though. It never will. It was all a big lie. The treadmill only increases its rate of spin.

[jlw61]

Your article, IMHO, would only be valid in a scenario of rapid oil prices which are caused by physical destruction of large oil fields/pipelines in the large oil producing countries. I think, with no particular economic background, that the US could survive (with some pain) a price increase as high as 15% a year until oil tops $200 a barrel, after that, it's a complete guessing game on my part.

So let's assume that suddenly oil is over $200 a barrel. I believe you will find that the general population would recoil quite badly towards a sudden loss of cheap oil.

So let's ask some questions in order to figure things out.

Would credit card companies react quickly to shut the system down so that they would not be the ones holding the bag after a panic buying spree? After all, they are there to make money, not provide a public service.

Would there be nobody to work or would there be a radical change in who got work? Would a employer shut their door because their $8/hr stocker and $15/hr manager could not drive 5 miles to work or would they hire the newly unemployeed IT manager within walking distance to stock shelves and manage their store (two employees in one!) for $10/hr?

A very large percentage of home-owners would be in default in 3-6 months. Would they be put out on the street causing milliions of homes to sit vacant or would deals be made to prevent massive migrating hordes and loss of tax revenues?

Few people have more than a month of food on hand and most crops take 60 to 120 days to grow in the back yard. Would this be the perfect recipe for emergency laws, work camps, and other really nice government solutions? Or would people pull together, build cheap green houses and figure things out while the first crop is in the ground?

There are 60 million gun owners. Would the government decide to try to disarm them in a foolish attempt to "maintain order"? How many would willing give up their guns? Would the military be called in to disarm gun owners? How many law enforcement would be willing to risk near certain wounding or possible death by a desperate population who fear the loss of their gun for protection in universally uncertain times? New Orleans residents submitted to gun confiscation because they knew the rest of the world was still there and in one piece.

The population would need to learn about mass transit and car pooling in order to keep anything resembling a job for anything longer than a few weeks. Would the cities finally fix/upgrade their mass transit systems quickly and, more importantly, would they be able to even keep them running?

Would governement respond in positive ways striking down laws designed to protect a cheap-oil and entitled society in favor of allowing people to figure out what's the best solution. For instance, would it become legal to raise animals in the city? Would it be possible to grow corn in the local park? Would the law allow you to kill someone trying to steal your crops or livestock? Whould you be allowed to provide bus service with a pickup truck and a 50 seat trailer at a price below what the city could provide?

I see two scenarios most likely playing out, and since I'm an optimist, I see the first one as most likely. There really is not anything in between since people either band together or they kill each other.

1) TANSTAAFL - There would be spot rioting and isolated problems as people realize a new world order is upon them called "Reality". However, most people would adjust, make do, move on, be productive, and protect the neighborhood. If everyone is in the same leaky boat, the wise person passes out pails.

2) Road warrior - People lose their minds and the SHTF. Go into hiding and pray you have enough to last you through the next harvest.

In both of these cases I see the government playing a key role in which path we take and quite possibly different parts of the country taking one route or the other. If govenment (local or federal) panics and tries the heavy handed approach, I see the Road Warrior scenario as most likely.

If government backs off, gives a little cover to the people, and runs interference with the banks and corporations, number 1 is more likely. A local government determined to do what's right could override a federal government unless the army moves in. To accomplish this, federal entitlements and "free" local services would need to dissapear overnight and the various governments would have to revert back to a protector of rights and liberty, nothing else. So, while I'm an optimist, I'm also a realist. My suggestion is that you make sure you have plenty of ammo and freeze dried food because I am suspicious about any government's ability to swallow its pride and do what's right for the people.

JW

[Greg]

I think a giant Prozac bomb would permanently eliminate 80% of the posters from this site.

[americandream]

I suspect that in the transition to the final collapse into some form of revolutionary impulse and then mass collectivisation, we may see an upsurge in nationalist sentiment similar to war time Britain and all manner of meaningless initiatives aimed at keeping the masses distracted..

[JPL]

Arbeit macht frei (Work makes you free) - was the motto over the entrance gate of Auschwitz.

JP

[Eli]

I have to agree with the general premise of the thread.

We live at the Peak of the oil age. Energy was cheap and abundant, our focus went from production to consumption.

The US has become nothing but shopping malls and chain restaurants. We are now a service industry driven economy what happens when people have trouble affording those services?

Yup, most of us are employed at jobs that will no longer be needed.

[Ludi]

I'd like to hope people could occupy themselves learning how to care for themselves again (growing food, repairing things, etc) but I'm afraid many may be prevented from doing so because of not having access to land, the proper information, tools, seeds, etc.

I spend very little of my time working for money even now, and most of my working time trying to learn how to care for myself more (building permaculture systems), but I am fortunate to have access to land and some capital.

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'I') agree with dsula. There will be more work than ever. But it will be very different work

[muon]

I'm not in America so I'll have to extrapolate a little, but most Western/Developed countries I believe have oursourced a lot of manufacturing jobs to Asia. I don't know how much of a practical thing that is in deep PO, because it would cost far more to produce those goods, it would take oil and energy they could use to produce their own goods and there would be a lack of oil to transport those goods to the Western countries. In a way I think that means we would have to reproduce some kind of manufacturing base, mixed in with a mainly farming base, and in a way it's difficult because people who are unemployed and finding it hard to buy food will not want many products other than the basics. If I was a president or prime minister though, I think I'd rather have my people making clothes for themselves and import the base products (cotton/wool etc) rather than import the finished product as we do now, even if that means higher prices for those products and less disposable income for electronic toys and gas guzzling cars (not a bad thing really considering PO?)

I think pricing structures will change a lot as we go through this. I think there will be less cheap imports and that will make it more cost efficient to move production back to our countries, but it wont leave as much disposable income as we are used to. I also think a far greater percentage of income will go on food and basics with prices of those rising sharply.

Although riots may happen occasionally, I think ultimately people prefer to have food in their and their chiildrens' bellies than to just go nuts on the street and end up wounded or dead with nothing to show for it. I think that after the riots they will just change from working in service industries to working on land or in manufacturing for the $3 a day equivalent (though it would probably be $30 it would only be worth $3 as we think of it now due to inflation).

I also think a lot of business owners like having a business and a workforce and can be quite determined and inventive people. If I had money, say I was a bank owner, I would probably not want lots of evictions as that would only leave me with lots of empty decaying properties and homeless people who may riot, I would personally get those people to work for me in some way in return for staying in their homes and a small amount of money to cover food - or I would buy up some land and get them working on it, pay them enough for their rent and give them food as wages, selling my excess for profits or using the excess for ethanol/biofuel production. In a way I would describe this as a return to a kind of feudalistic society, but this depends on those business owners preparing for what is coming and not being caught out and going down with it or being ultra rich and debtless and able to take advantage.

These things aren't exactly what I would like to see though. I'd rather see mitigation plans put into place and introduced now. I think a planned and organised power down and systems change would be less stressful for people than recession enforced power down and probably less likely to have anarchic responses.

[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'W')e really need a slow transitional collapse so people can adjust in a more orderly fashion.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'I') agree with dsula. There will be more work than ever. But it will be very different work

[RdSnt]

Given that the scenario is one of complete collapse there will be very dark months before much of anything gets done.
Far too much of what has been discussed so far is based on historical events. For instance, it was mentioned by someone that people would migrate to the cities. That is unlikely this time since most of the population is in the cities already. The vast majority of whom don't have a clue on how to fend for themselves. I mean the closest most have gotten is looking for the best bargains and driving 50 miles to get them.
Another thing to consider is that there is no infrastructure for all the idle hands to be turned to. There are 2.5 times as many people in the US (those that were counted) than there was in 1930.
You have a population that has no skills for survival, no place for them to go, no infrastructure to support them, no inventory to feed them and not enough people to police them. Keep in mind, those who are nominally in charge have no skills either. Not for the scenario that we are imagining here.
Most will be left to fend for themselves. Many will die.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'W')hat happens to the sick and infirm?