[goldmund52]

The most successful, reproducible long-term investment strategy in stock market history is to buy dividend paying blue chip stocks--- emphasis on long-term. You can research this bald claim for yourself by looking at iqtrends.com (and no I'm not shilling for them, it's one of several investment letters I subscribe too. Their strategy is consistly in the top long-term performers rated by Hulbert's Financial Digest, and no I'm not shilling for them either..) Or read The Dividend Growth Investment Strategy by Roxann Klugman (get it an any library).

I think focusing on the fate of currencies is interesting but may mislead us from doing the most sound thing with our long-term investment strategies.

If we disregard money for a moment and just look at the excrescence on the surface of the earth that we call human society it is clear that it is the product of the process of converting fossil fuel into human protoplasm and concomitant support paraphernalia such as clothing, buildings, paper, transport vehicles and such. As the energy supporting this process decreases, the amount and complexity of this "structure", human society will recede. But there will still be pockets of human society with all the complexity intact. There will still be wealth, there will still be production and trading of goods and there will still be individual accumulation of wealth on some scale.

You can trump any conceivable answer with doom scenarios of nuclear holocaust, complete anarchy, you're-rich-but-get-killed-just-leaving-your-house, etc.. In a somewhat less doomerish future, do you think that it still makes sense for a person with the burden of peakoil awareness to excecute a dividend growth stock investment strategy? Do you think the best diversified companies will survive PO, such as GE as just one example....?

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')But there will still be pockets of human society with all the complexity intact. There will still be wealth, there will still be production and trading of goods and there will still be individual accumulation of wealth on some scale.

[goldmund52]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')But there will still be pockets of human society with all the complexity intact. There will still be wealth, there will still be production and trading of goods and there will still be individual accumulation of wealth on some scale.

[Zentric]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '[')b]You know what happens to a fool and his money? Well if you don't know you can rest assured most of the insiders at the "blue chip" companies do know and will be glad to financially bleed you out like a stuck pig and then dine on your carcass.

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zentric', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '[')b]You know what happens to a fool and his money? Well if you don't know you can rest assured most of the insiders at the "blue chip" companies do know and will be glad to financially bleed you out like a stuck pig and then dine on your carcass.

[DantesPeak]

Once we have past peak, most US blue chips will move relentlessly lower in inflation adjusted terms. I expect inflation to be very high for the first few years of post peak oil, while most utilities and computers systems are still functional, to be followed by a wave of deflation as the framework of commerce starts to break down.

Anyway, there is still a window of opportunity to make some money for up to three years – as it is likely in dollar terms physical resources will increase in value. I am not sure if whether you will come out ahead after taxes and inflation. However there will be a point where the US government will gradually seize the entire energy industry, and it's likely existing owners will not be fully compensated.

If general war breaks out in the Mideast, what I say above won't apply, and you should prepare for the worst immeadiately.

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('goldmund52', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')But there will still be pockets of human society with all the complexity intact. There will still be wealth, there will still be production and trading of goods and there will still be individual accumulation of wealth on some scale.

[Zentric]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zentric', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '[')b]You know what happens to a fool and his money? Well if you don't know you can rest assured most of the insiders at the "blue chip" companies do know and will be glad to financially bleed you out like a stuck pig and then dine on your carcass.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zentric', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '[')b]You know what happens to a fool and his money? Well if you don't know you can rest assured most of the insiders at the "blue chip" companies do know and will be glad to financially bleed you out like a stuck pig and then dine on your carcass.

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zentric', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '[')b]You know what happens to a fool and his money? Well if you don't know you can rest assured most of the insiders at the "blue chip" companies do know and will be glad to financially bleed you out like a stuck pig and then dine on your carcass.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('goldmund52', 'd')o you think that it still makes sense for a person with the burden of peakoil awareness to excecute a dividend growth stock investment strategy?

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('goldmund52', 'e')xcecute a dividend growth stock investment strategy? Do you think the best diversified companies will survive PO, such as GE as just one example....?

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('goldmund52', 'T')he most successful, reproducible long-term investment strategy in stock market history is to buy dividend paying blue chip stocks--- emphasis on long-term.

[JPL]

When you look at the number of the people on the planet, and the area we have to feed them on, one investment stands clear.

Land is still pretty cheep right now. As my 'ole grandfather used to say, "They aren't making any more of it."'

Just a tip ;o)

JPL

[Lighthouse]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('goldmund52', 'T')he most successful, reproducible long-term investment strategy in stock market history is to buy dividend paying blue chip stocks--- ...

yadi yadi ya

... Do you think the best diversified companies will survive PO, such as GE as just one example....?

[drew]

Goldmund, I thought I'd try to post a reasonable answer to your posit. I play the market myself and wonder the same things you do with regard to PO.

I am not quite so doom and gloom as the other fine folks who answered your query, so I do believe there are investments that will help you. Long term wise PO is going to happen, and maybe has already occured.

I highly doubt it will be the end of things especially the markets. No one is going to seize GE either.

I smell a recession as do many others. What do you think a bad one will do to demand? I'd say a world class downturn may put off a resurgence to 85 mbpd for many years. Just look at production data from the years following the Iranian revolution.

Regardless of PO, global warming, war, etc.. there is always money to be made.

If you have any answers as to how to do that please let me know!

Personally, I could see myself playing the ups and downs of oil for another decade anyways.

Drew

[Lighthouse]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drew', '.').. Regardless of PO, global warming, war, etc.. there is always money to be made...

[pup55]

Dow Jones History

Here is a list of the components of the DJIA throughout time. If you page down to October 1, 1928, and review the list, it looks as though a lot of these companies survived the 90% stock devaluation of '29 to '32 and hung around for awhile longer. A lot are still around in some form. Ironically, a lot of these companies that survived the first great depression did not make it through the 1970-1980 US peak oil event without being bought out by somebody.

Also, this is not to say that they continued to pay dividends throughout that time either.

Also, note that if you had invested in the Dow 30 in September 1928 you would not have regained your capital until 1955 or so, even though the companies survived and functioned, you did not do very well as an investment.

On the other hand, people lost a lot of money by keeping it in cash form in their local bank when it was shut down, so cash is not necessarily a good thing either. A popular alternative was burying it in your backyard. This did not help the Weimar Germans, but was an effective strategy during deflationary times to avoid the perils of banking in an unstable economy.

Other financial instruments, such as bonds, and even government bonds, are subject to default and/or other shenanigans, so are really no better.

If you held gold, you were not necessarily safe either. In 1932, FDR confiscated the nation's gold, forcing people to sell it for $20 per ounce.

Executive Order 6102

I do not suppose that there is any compelling reason why Silver could not also be confiscated by the government at a given point, but holding a lot of silver might be slightly better.

The problem with holding gold or silver, either one (provided you are allowed to), is that you have to do two selling jobs every time you make a transaction: You have to convince somebody that what you have is the real thing, and you will have to negotiate an exchange rate.

Land is only as good as your ability to defend it, or alternately, pay taxes on it. When all of the state and county governments get hard up for money when TSHTF, they will continue to collect taxes. If you cannot pay yours, they will throw you off and auction off the land.

Antiques? Artwork? I think not. It will screw up your mobility, because it will force you to have a house to keep them in, and with a house you have taxes, covenants, and various other ways that a malevolent government can get it from you.

So it's a problem, trying to preserve a pretty big amount of capital in a way that is likely to survive a serious economic crisis.

For smaller amounts of money, there are some options:

Firearms--There is some merit to this idea, except that in a world where all of the gold is confiscated, who is to say that the firearms will not be confiscated also. The "prying it from my cold dead hands" theory, popularized by Charlton Heston, may not survive some future terrorist attack or uprising. I keep thinking that bullets might be good for transactions. A supply of 9X19mm luger rounds may make you a lot of friends.

Drugs: If you really want to make friends, and influence people, an alternative is to buy up and store somehow a quantity of drugs. (note: I am only proposing this as a hypothetical and am not encouraging you to do anything illegal, per the PO.com code of conduct). Unfortunately, cocaine is not a good choice, because it is hydrophilic, and has limited long-term stability. Cocaine Monograph Other drugs in pill form are reportedly much more stable, and will last for several years. Gotta either cut the police in on the deal or lay real low, though.

Anyway at this point we are stretching the limit of what someone with a lot of money right now could plausibly do with it to preserve it in case TSHTF.

I would suggest two other things (too bad Phebagirl is not around to make this suggestion): Take some of your money, and use it to make friends. Throw parties, give some away to neighbors that need help, and get ahead on favors. If you have a lot of friends after TSHTF you will be better off. The gift that keeps on giving is to move to a small town out in the middle of nowhere, make friends, and use some of your money to run for Mayor. At that point, you will be the government, and you will be able to have a lot more, shall we say, flexibility on enforcement of some of these government edicts.

Also, invest in knowledge: No one can confiscate it. Knowledge about how to make moonshine, for example, might be really useful after TSHTF as well.

Also, make sure you spend enough on yourself before TSHTF from a health maintenance standpoint to make it through a few years of lean times. Keep up to date with your dental work, for example. Nothing worse than having a toothache while the cops are chasing you down while you are carrying around all of your gold. Get in shape if you are not already. Get that kidney transplant or heart bypass you have been needing.

If things get too far out of hand, such as rounding up large portions of the population and herding them into boxcars and transporting them to detention camps, no amount of capital preservation will do you any good.

Anyway count your blessings. If you have money to preserve, there are worse problems to have. You are already ahead of the 90% of the people who are upside down on their mortgages.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drew', 'N')o one is going to seize GE either.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'A')lso, make sure you spend enough on yourself before TSHTF from a health maintenance standpoint to make it through a few years of lean times. ... Get in shape if you are not already.