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Commodities

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Commodities

Unread postby NTBKtrader » Mon 25 Oct 2004, 15:49:57

Of all the markets you could have invested in during the past 18 months, you would have done best in commodities.

Oil has hogged most of the attention, yet the price of just about every raw material has been soaring.

And now? There are signs the commodities bubble may be popping. Few booms last forever, and this one is no exception.
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pi ... pw5FKuy9bc
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Unread postby tdrive » Mon 25 Oct 2004, 22:11:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's hard to see commodities continuing their dream run.

Sonny, Let me tell you a a lesson learned the (very) hard way, from a commodity trader.
1. Never, ever try to predict the future.
2. Never, ever try to call the top.
3. Never, ever try to invest in commodities
without knowing the fire chief. You should know what I am referring to in that last #3 one. If you don't, then you should not be in the commodities business.
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Unread postby Soft_Landing » Tue 26 Oct 2004, 13:06:35

I am not a commodities trader, and I certainly don't know the fire chief, but, if I'm not mistaken, weren't many commodities near 100 year lows only a few years ago?

In other words, can this 'bull market' be seen not so much as a bull market but more as a major correction of a long term slump?

What are your thoughts?
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Unread postby tdrive » Tue 26 Oct 2004, 15:53:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.').. more as a major correction of a long term slump? ...


Soft_Landing, if I knew the answer, I would not be working 12 hour days, occasionally posting here for recreation and fun, but chilling my heels somewhere on a South Pacific island, sipping a cocktail.

Sorry, I do not know if this is a correction or a bubble.

Cheers,
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Unread postby trespam » Tue 26 Oct 2004, 15:56:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tdrive', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.').. more as a major correction of a long term slump? ...


Soft_Landing, if I knew the answer, I would not be working 12 hour days, occasionally posting here for recreation and fun, but chilling my heels somewhere on a South Pacific island, sipping a cocktail.

Sorry, I do not know if this is a correction or a bubble.

Cheers,


I think higher energy costs will continue to work their way into the commodities market, making at least some more expensive. Chinese growth is not stopping right now, commodities are tight, and basic food stuffs are going to get more expensive as higher oil prices work there way into food production. Higher gas prices and higher heating will also have an effect.

Counterbalance that with economic slow-down, but China is still turning on all twelve cylinders.
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Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 27 Oct 2004, 00:06:08

Here's a new twist on commodity prices:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ore important, regional economic growth trends in oil-importing low income countries of Africa, and oil-importing emerging economies of Latin America (notably Brazil) have in 2004 strongly rebounded from recession or low growth in 2001-2003. That is, economic growth in these countries has been levered up as oil prices have increased – for the simple reason that higher oil price entrain price rises for non-oil minerals, the metals (eg. iron ore and steel, copper and aluminium), and certain energy-intensive agro-commodities. In brief, the revenue effect due to fast increasing oil prices vastly outweighs the cost effect, and is particularly strong as oil prices move into the 45 – 60 USD/bbl range.


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Re:

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 04 Sep 2025, 16:53:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tdrive', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's hard to see commodities continuing their dream run.

Sonny, Let me tell you a a lesson learned the (very) hard way, from a commodity trader.
1. Never, ever try to predict the future.
2. Never, ever try to call the top.
3. Never, ever try to invest in commodities
without knowing the fire chief. You should know what I am referring to in that last #3 one. If you don't, then you should not be in the commodities business.


Boy tdrive....peak oilers sure got caught out by #1 and #2 didn't they? Probably #3 as well, but maybe not as it relates to oil. Folks were betting that peak would send it to the MOON! A common fallacy, confusing production rate with price without factoring in demand, but peakers fell for about every trick in the book along the way.

But officially, EIA says annual average WTI was $65 in 2018 with peak oil, and 7 years after peak oil in 2024 was $76. So if they had the courage of their convictions (which they don't, as you can tell by the traffic here nowadays), they could have made some $$ on peak oil driving up prices. A little.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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