[Heineken]

One of the major ongoing debates on the Peak Oil site is between those who insist that technology will save us and those who say it can't, and won't.

Nasdaq has gone nowhere since 1998 (although we had that ridiculous bubble, of course---a major transfer of wealth from the many to the few). Might this serve as a model to suggest that the tech business model can't really hack it and is thus unlikely to rescue us from the consequences of Peak Oil?

[omgwtfbyobbq]

First things first, business and technology aren't the same thing. Business' will supress or ignore technology that's not in their best interests, and encourage technology that is, regardless of the cost to the consumer.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', 'B')usiness' will supress or ignore technology that's not in their best interests, and encourage technology that is, regardless of the cost to the consumer.

[evilgenius]

You are opening up a complex can of worms. Do you mean that the business models of growth aren't applicable or that tech itself has no efficacy? You know that the growth model has a lot to do with Western Man's take on his role in society vis a vis the place of government and business. Bush's tax cuts could just as easily be going to build out a thorough infrastructure instead of extending the drunken oil binge.

It is tough to count on tech when all around those who need to support it, Bush et all, are actually working against it. It has been too easy for those that have called for more free net and more public transport etc. to be dismissed as pussies. Those fat Mid-Western housewives that are the backbone of the conservative constituency need to decide which is weaker; the innovator or the fearful religious clinger to failure.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'Y')ou are opening up a complex can of worms. Do you mean that the business models of growth aren't applicable or that tech itself has no efficacy?

[omgwtfbyobbq]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'T')he financial cost of the consumer is taken a lot into account. It's other costs that are ignored.

[evilgenius]

What do you think about this change; what if instead of giving companies that we need to build our future tax breaks the government instead gave them low interest loans? They would then be able to borrow the money required to build the net and the wireless infrastructure, the new electric motors, the carbon sequestration tech, etc thus getting that done. The loans could be at or just below the rate of inflation or at some low rate like 2%. It could be stipulated that these loans only go to build what society needs but would otherwise fall by the wayside.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'w')hat if instead of giving companies that we need to build our future tax breaks the government instead gave them low interest loans?

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('omgwtfbyobbq', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'T')he way the global economy is set up, if solutions don't make money they aren't solutions.

[peripato]

Also transistors-per-chip growth (Moore's Law) is slowing and will eventually peak too, which could be very bad for the U.S. economy.

[dub_scratch]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')he metabolism of 6 billion can not run on nano cheese-doodles.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', ' ')We'll have to shrink all the ants and cock roaches too, otherwise they would kick our asses.

[dub_scratch]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', ' ')We'll have to shrink all the ants and cock roaches too, otherwise they would kick our asses.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'p')eripato, I have been expecting this. Thanks for the chart Where does it come from?

[Tyler_JC]

Why do we need computers that are faster than the average person can use them?

The PC that I am using spends most of its time doing nothing. When I order it to let me type up a paper or surf the web, the vast majority of its processing power is wasted.

Moore's law doesn't necessarily reflect demand. We no longer demand faster computers. We may whine about how long it takes to install the latest gaming software or how slow the internet is running. But in reality, our computers are capable of more than we need or want.

The average person does not need a faster computer. Thus, the technology companies do not believe that a market exists for a transistor that is 10x as powerful. This reflects a change in the technology market, not an end to progress.

Technological progress is costing more and returns on investment are becoming lower. However, we are still advancing. Biochemistry and nanotechnology in particular are being heavily funded. Energy technology should also be added to that list given today's prices.

The NASDAQ is a measure of 1500 companies (I believe) in the technology sector. There are companies whose share price is exploding and there are companies whose share price is sinking. A composite is not always the best way to measure the success of an industry. There are still new innovations that are changing some small aspect of our lives dramatically.

The low-hanging fruit may be gone, but if the modern financial system is still intact over the next decade, I can gurantee you that technological progess as a whole will increase.

But I'm just a regular person with no serious experience in this particular subject.

[Heineken]

If technology companies were successfully innovating us out of the Peak Oil dilemma, and the environmental disasters we face, this would be a revolutionary development far greater than the Dot-Com boom and would be similarly reflected in the Nasdaq average. Instead, the Nasdaq is now where it was a decade ago. The magic just ain't happening. To avoid collapse we need solutions now, not 20 years in the future.

[omgwtfbyobbq]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'I')t's isn't just auto manufacturers---PO will hit the entire economy, including the technology companies we are told will innovate our way out of this mess. So you've got to factor that in---the effect of a depression or severe recession, and horribly high material and energy costs, on the very companies we're relying on.

If the companies Nasdaq represents are doing so poorly during a time of an at least superficially healthy economy and abundant and relatively cheap energy supplies, how will they perform in a post-PO depression?

[overrocked]

Peripato has a point with the number of tranisitors you can fit on a chip. If we can make things smaller with the same functionality ( think ipod nano) You can make products much cheaper. (or at least with fewer resources)
And in an out of control market economy where companies can only survive if they can build it to not last long so it has to be replaced-- what can we do? An out of control capitalist or pure socialist government structure will not work. A mixture may- IMHO.

Germany has successfully incorporated solar in their country through massive support by their government.
In the US, specifically in my neighborhood, it is illegal to have solar panels on my roof, because of the cities' policy that it detracts from the 'look' and value of the house. Neighborhood associations- aren't they wonderful..... Used to be you could paint your door any color ya' wanted. Blight can be taken care of by ordinance, i say- the hell with neighborhood associations....
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Everyone has the right ... to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers.
- Universal Declaration of Human Rights, Article 19

[Tyler_JC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('overrocked', 'P')eripato has a point with the number of tranisitors you can fit on a chip. If we can make things smaller with the same functionality ( think ipod nano) You can make products much cheaper. (or at least with fewer resources)
And in an out of control market economy where companies can only survive if they can build it to not last long so it has to be replaced-- what can we do? An out of control capitalist or pure socialist government structure will not work. A mixture may- IMHO.

Germany has successfully incorporated solar in their country through massive support by their government.
In the US, specifically in my neighborhood, it is illegal to have solar panels on my roof, because of the cities' policy that it detracts from the 'look' and value of the house. Neighborhood associations- aren't they wonderful..... Used to be you could paint your door any color ya' wanted. Blight can be taken care of by ordinance, i say- the hell with neighborhood associations....
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Everyone has the right ... to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers.
- Universal Declaration of Human Rights, Article 19